Is my career over?

traderdragon · May 9, 2006

Plug in win/loss 0.5 and pfactor 1.6

That is the worst system I would trade. The edge must be strong enough to clearly over come bad random streaks or im not interested.

55% win, and pfactor 1.3 aint bad, assuming the sample set is large enough. A system must have at least a few hundred trades in it for it to have a decent confidence value.

JMowery1987 · May 9, 2006

Quote from traderdragon:

Plug in win/loss 0.5 and pfactor 1.6

That is the worst system I would trade. The edge must be strong enough to clearly over come bad random streaks or im not interested.

55% win, and pfactor 1.3 aint bad, assuming the sample set is large enough. A system must have at least a few hundred trades in it for it to have a decent confidence value.

Makes sense, of course my results are like that because I'm scalping for a few cents. It also doesn't include commissions and ecn fee's though. If there was a way to factor that in and plot it, it would be interesting to see the results.

Traveler · May 9, 2006

You guys are assuming that the guy's account represents his total risk capital. He can size to his overall risk tolerance rather than just the margin money in his account if he wants.

Traveler

JMowery1987 · May 9, 2006

Quote from Traveler:

You guys are assuming that the guy's account represents his total risk capital. He can size to his overall risk tolerance rather than just the margin money in his account if he wants.

Traveler

Quote from OP in first post....
"It's been some ride and I only have about $10,000 more to fund my account with before I'll have to call it quits."

TruthSeeker247 · May 9, 2006

Quote from Tums:

From: "Richard L" tyrantrich@yahoo.com
Date: Mon May 8, 2006 7:42am(PDT)
Subject: Trading Quotes - Linda Raschke, Seykota, Schwartz

It never bothered me to lose, because I always knew that I would make it right back.

Linda Bradford Raschke

If I am bullish, I neither buy on reaction, nor wait for strength; I am already in. I turn bullish at the instant my buy stop is hit, and stay bullish until my sell stop is hit. Being bullish and not being long is illogical.

Ed Seykota

The best way to end a losing streak is to cut your losses and divorce your ego from the game. I learned this lesson many years ago at the crap tables in Vegas. The old cliche says "never send good money after bad", and it's true. You have to manage your resources and not lose too much of your stake. Many people,
when they're losing, increase their bets; they double up hoping to win it all back on one roll of the dice. That strategy can be devastating. The best way to stop a losing streak is to STOP! STOP THE LOSSES, STOP THE BLEEDING. Take time off and let your intellect take charge of your emotions; the market will be
there when you return.

Martin Schwartz, Pit Bull

you can find Richard's blog here http://tradingquotes.blogspot.com/

That was a great post. Thanks. I suppose part of the reason why I am not that bummed out is that I do believe that I can make it back. I can relate completely with Linda Rasche. Thanks

TruthSeeker247 · May 9, 2006

Quote from traderdragon:

My systems are in the 60% win, profit factor 2.0+ space.

Here is 100 EQ curves with those numbers plugged in.

This is what real good trading system can do.

I can devise mathematical models that work well on paper too. Guess what? If you don't have the balls to pull the trigger, YOU DON"T BELONG IN THIS GAME.

Just something to think about for Mowery and his buddy TraderDragon.

coolweb · May 9, 2006

Quote from TruthSeeker247:

I can devise mathematical models that work well on paper too. Guess what? If you don't have the balls to pull the trigger, YOU DON"T BELONG IN THIS GAME.

Just something to think about for Mowery and his buddy TraderDragon.

Balls belong to the experienced, the wise, the skilled.

It doesn't take balls to pull the trigger,
It takes know-how.

People who make money in this business are the people who know whats going on,
not the ones with the biggest balls / gunslingers/ cowboys.

unfortunately you have a completely wrong mindset.

JMowery1987 · May 9, 2006

Quote from coolweb:

Balls belong to the experienced, the wise, the skilled.

It doesn't take balls to pull the trigger,
It takes know-how.

People who make money in this business are the people who know whats going on,
not the ones with the biggest balls / gunslingers/ cowboys.

unfortunately you have a completely wrong mindset.

CW hit it right on the head... but like I've explained to truth....

He just thinks it is simple to trade.

It takes time, and experience. With that comes knowledge and confidence in your system.

This guy is a gunslinger... a gambler, just as I have said this whole post.... he just doesn't believe it.... he is lying to himself.

It's sad but true

TruthSeeker247 · May 9, 2006

Quote from brokerboy:

Youâre a trader maybe but not a professional one. You donât understand risk management, emotions, cutting losers fast, and having a game plan. Youâre fighting with people who might be professionals and telling them youâre right but honestly what have you done. To be a loser does not make you a professional trader. If you know how to swing a bat why are you not in the major leagues too? Its funny you say everybody loses to start which is mostly true but a professional does not drop 50k to say hey I am a professional trader and will be big because I lost. To me it sounds like you gave away that money. You have no right to even be trading more the 1 unit of whatever you trade. You executed a trade so youâre a trader in the smallest term of the word but you have not show one quality that would make anyone think youâre going to be a profitable trader. Do you think rich people pay a lot of money to financial firms for a dumb fool like you to take 10k from them everyday like its nothing?

I don't normally respond to brokerboys but I'll make an exception here. I am as smart and capable as any other person out there. I'm not saying I'll be big because I lost. I'm saying I'll be big because I will not give up; ever!!! Being able to take a loss and still continue is a very important characteristic of any trader. I wonder how many of the people on here who criticize me would simply give up if they had lost $30,000. I'd bet all of them (some might even give up on life....suicide?). lol I move on. I will survive even if I lose my remaining capital. Whereas someone like you would throw in the towel and give up, I will persist until I am successful. That's really the bottom line. The intent of my question on this forum was to ascertain the extent to which a blowup of an account would preclude me from securing a trading position with a proprietary trading firm. I'm not asking whether I will be successful as a trader; this is a given yes!

Thanks for your reply

TruthSeeker247 · May 9, 2006

Quote from coolweb:

Balls belong to the experienced, the wise, the skilled.

It doesn't take balls to pull the trigger,
It takes know-how.

People who make money in this business are the people who know whats going on,
not the ones with the biggest balls / gunslingers/ cowboys.

unfortunately you have a completely wrong mindset.

This topic is debatable. You can know everything you can about the markets but if you don't have the balls to pull the trigger, then you are useless. George soros, in an interview, once characterized his partner, Jim Rogers, as the idea guy and himself as the trigger puller. After he separated from his partner Jim Rogers, Soros went on to become a multibillionaire while Rogers basically lived off the success he had while he was Soros' Partner.

Balls are a very important part of this business. Know-how can be taught through meticulous observation of the markets. How in the world do you teach someone to have balls? lol. the latter task is the harder of the two things to teach. I am perfectly capable of understanding how the bond market works and I know that one day I will be an expert in my field despite my current deficiencies. I can learn know-how but I don't think you can teach someone how to have thick skin and how to put money on the line to supprot one's ideas. We can debate this all day but let me tell you how many traders I've dealt with who were fired because they just sat there all day not being able to click the buy or sell box on their DOM windows. Scared shitless and paralyzed. Or, traders I know who were fired because they were too scared to let their profits ride. They satisfy themselves with a half a tick yet wind up losing, on average, four or five ticks. Such people, do not belong in our business; of that I am absolutely certain!