is market random?

[TommyR]

It's not random. If it was, the number of down days would be approximately equal to the number of up days. Also, it clearly drifts higher over time.

excellent reasoning. if it were random after the drift (exponential itt) any subsequence of days would have a return time tending to 0 as n tends to infinity

 

[TommyR]

there is a lot of randomness . do not be fooled by it, choosing the mass of the different particles you can measure the flux through the boundary. if you do very quickly you can move the ball tighter and tighter, the gas is compressible and it heats up, because it is radiating through a smaller surface area. a singularity is avoided because the boundary has to have positive volume- like the smallest bid-ask. but it would be very hot like the centre of quasar if you have a large enough system of particles. this is actually how it works tbh

 

[murray t turtle]

I think we are in agreement. My struggle is how to profit from this slight up trend doing day trading?

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[d] DEPENDS ON how you value profit compared to how the market trends over time >one day.I enter/exit during the day many times, but not really a day trade- never could make daytrading what I could/did make swing /position trading. LAST quarter of 2018, did some daytrading, but the market seldom says in bear trends as long………………………………………………………..

 

[TommyR]

if the market were random i would have an up day every few weeks . confirmed deterministic.

 

[Resto]

The market is easily predictable, and confirmation is easy to find here https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...odel-in-combination-of-time-volatility.336840 /

 

[MACD]

there is a lot of randomness . do not be fooled by it, choosing the mass of the different particles you can measure the flux through the boundary. if you do very quickly you can move the ball tighter and tighter, the gas is compressible and it heats up, because it is radiating through a smaller surface area. a singularity is avoided because the boundary has to have positive volume- like the smallest bid-ask. but it would be very hot like the centre of quasar if you have a large enough system of particles. this is actually how it works tbh

This may qualify as the greatest post ever made on ET.

 

[imjohn]

This may qualify as the greatest post ever made on ET.

hot like the centre of quasar... boom

 

[murray t turtle]

And to be clear, autocorrelation is certainly a phenomenon that exists...........................

Sorry you think I'm "fundamentally wrong". I just wanted to add some more quantitative focused points to the discussion. Ive actually ran market making desks so I hoped to share some insight.

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That , Quant11+ auto correlation........................
And also ,, trends also tend to persist, except SEPT selling. So SEPT selling could fool many; i seldom see anything i could confuse for being random; but i study trends + NOT looking for random patterns..........................................................................

 

[RickM]

Price is moved by an Algorithm, not a human to entice traders to place a position.
Then it looks to trap those same traders with skill no human could ever obtain.
It’s very precise but uses a code that can be broken down to a few parameters.