My question has nothing to do with randomness.
Prof Tom said the best predictor of price is by using yesterday's price, I was asking him how to predict using yesterday's price.
is market random?
- Thread starter padutrader
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Prof Tom said the best predictor of price is by using yesterday's price, I was asking him how to predict using yesterday's price.
is that not what technical analysis is about.
since Prof Tom is very busy and he charges 50000 usd for his introductory sermon i am pleased to tell you that there are lot of free answers on the web if you search google
ironchef,
Take a break and enjoy some music good buddy. Pick one and relax a bit.
Thank me later.
and most importantly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xpVfcZ0ZcFM
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are you a doctorironchef,
Take a break and enjoy some music good buddy. Pick one and relax a bit.
Thank me later.
and most importantly.
Just your thought (i.e., opinion) or do you have objective evidence, or you backtested some data, or..?
Please enlighten us. Thanks.
for thirty years i have seen the sun rise up in the east.
for thirty years i have seen the markets do things.
back test?
why?
for thirty years i have seen the markets do things.
back test?
why?
It is a spectrum, though -- and to present it (thus far) as a dichotomy is not helpful to at least half of this thread's readers.
Whether by art or by science, we are always trying to divine the market's direction and intentions, and Milton Friedman's "As-If Principle" is the rule of our day -- as shown in our Net Liq... And when (again, 'by art or by science') we discern a regime change is necessary on *our* part, to mimic the market, we are doing it not because all our little ducks were lined up in a row, but because a *sufficient*number* of them were lined up.
What is more is that the post to which I was replying was replete with errors, *one* of which was a wholesale denial of mean reversion in market phenomenon, which is quackery and utter nonsense.
As for "proving" whether the single best predictor of a price today being yesterday's price -- errrrrr, no. (Nor more than I'd prove gravity to you, or the roundness of the Earth, or a heliocentric solar system.
) But I'll give you the opportunity to prove the opposite: a little thought experiment:You find yourself duct-taped to a chair, in a dark room lit by one bulb off in the corner. A gun is in your face, and a sinister voice says, "I'm going to give you three prices for the current SPX. Guess the right one, and you live. Guess the wrong one, and the gun goes off right into your brain." The three prices are $2513, $yesterday's_close, and $3539.
"Your choice."
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Nobody denied that price paths sometimes mean revert. What you suggested, and which is utter nonsense, is that price paths revert back to some long term mean.
It is a spectrum, though -- and to present it (thus far) as a dichotomy is not helpful to at least half of this thread's readers.
Whether by art or by science, we are always trying to divine the market's direction and intentions, and Milton Friedman's "As-If Principle" is the rule of our day -- as shown in our Net Liq... And when (again, 'by art or by science') we discern a regime change is necessary on *our* part, to mimic the market, we are doing it not because all our little ducks were lined up in a row, but because a *sufficient*number* of them were lined up.
What is more is that the post to which I was replying was replete with errors, *one* of which was a wholesale denial of mean reversion in market phenomenon, which is quackery and utter nonsense.
As for "proving" whether the single best predictor of a price today being yesterday's price -- errrrrr, no. (Nor more than I'd prove gravity to you, or the roundness of the Earth, or a heliocentric solar system.
You find yourself duct-taped to a chair, in a dark room lit by one bulb off in the corner. A gun is in your face, and a sinister voice says, "I'm going to give you three prices for the current SPX. Guess the right one, and you live. Guess the wrong one, and the gun goes off right into your brain." The three prices are $2513, $yesterday's_close, and $3539.
"Your choice."