is market random?

is market random

  • yes

    Votes: 9 16.1%

  • no

    Votes: 17 30.4%

  • not all the time

    Votes: 19 33.9%

  • does not matter

    Votes: 11 19.6%
  • Total voters
    56
Definition of random
(Entry 1 of 3)

: a haphazard course
at random
: without definite aim, direction, rule, or method subjects chosen at random
 
GRULSTMRNN said:
Huh? No, if you flip coins there is no trend in anything, simply because there is no drift component in the stochastic path of each series of coin flips. Running 1000 series of 10 coin flips you end up with about 50% values above where you started and 50% below. Coin flips are a poor example to describe asset price behavior. Stocks have an up drift component because of value creation that shareholders participate in. Futures prices can exhibit drift depending on the underlying but generally they don't. Fx prices don't at all exhibit drifts
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The binomial option pricing model called and it wanted me to tell you that I was citing it with a fair coin and by simply adjusting the coin to be unfair you arrive at one of the most popular option pricing models on the planet.

Revisit your undergraduate probability courses. Unfair coin flips are a perfectly viable way to represent market behavior as evidenced by the binomial model for option pricing. It's common for people to think entirely in terms of fair coins - so I will give you that. Perhaps I was being too factitious.
 
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Price has a reason. Price moves for a reason. Price is a language, the markets only voice. At times movement in the market is random. Other times it is not. This is obvious if you watch commodities, equities no.

50/50 Coin flip. Absolutely not. Unfair coin flip - more or less yes.

...and anyone that quotes Taleb religiously, that thinks they accurately comprehend what he is saying, but never traded options... funny.
 
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Follow my thread. My cycles are not perfectly accurate, and it only tells approximately the timing of swing highs/lows, not how far it will move. For example, my cycle analysis shows audcad price will rise from a low about October 13, to the high due about October 17. I don't know how much it will move. If markets are random, this would not be possible. Please remember, this is not the holy Grail, but I would rather use this than most any other form of analysis.
 
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trend2009 said:
market index moves higher because that is inflation. similar to bank interest.
how about intraday market, do you think it is random?
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My point exactly. Things look random because we can not find reasons/patterns. Once you do, it is not that random anymore.
 
If you are looking to win trading patterns, you have only a small chance of being profitable.
Price is structured when attacking Liquidity Pools, very precise. When it has consumed these large pools, it becomes random to encourage more traders to take positions.

Understanding what price action really is offers the best chance to seeing the market.
 
padutrader said:
and does it matter to a trader?

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It does a matter as a money management rule to get the best protection, however it can't protect you much longer if you don't have a trading method that can give you a minimum success to stay in the long run, in regards to George Soros quote.

In my opinion it's almost impossible to predict the future cause it will always depend on the all player's free will to act, BUT it's possible to read present signs to know what is actually the trend and stick to it until a new change.
 
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