Is it the economy or my MA swing strategy?

I wouldnt be so hard on yourself..You caught a correction..Most important,are you staying disciplined,following your plan and have you done any backtesting/simulations???

Simulations aren't the grail,but it will give you a good idea of how the system may perform in different markets..

Hang in there,everybody hits speed bumps.Cut your size for now
 
CPB (not CPM) might be a good one, although under current market conditions it would be fighting against the recent overall trend.

As you mentioned it going higher with volume - it closed above first level of resistance on 3rd highest volume of the past 6 months or more.

Also currently a Bollinger Band Squeeze inside Keltner Channel signals very likely a breakout underway or soon to be.

Main question I have is whether it can fight the current trend or not?
! CPB.png
 
DublAK2 said:
Okay, $FDL bought on 2/1 would be an example. I'm about 1 more day away from the 7ema crossing under the 20ema, selling for a loss
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Your strategy didn't work here because after the run up to $39.93 it pulled back into a range and is consolidating. In a range, you look to fade not buy breakouts (unless it's a clear breakout over the top of the range.) If I were to play this, I would wait for it to dip below recent support at $35.58 and show you a hammer candle or an engulfing candle and then go long. But remember, in a range you fade...so when it runs up and the ema 7 crosses back above the ema 20 I would look to sell at least 3/4 of my position. Maybe keep a portion running in case it keeps going up with a stop loss at breakeven.
 
So basically the run up to the day that I bought was too steep/significant? It did pull back some, setting up my 7EMA crossover but the stock was already exhausted by then?

Okay, that makes sense to me.

thank you
 
DublAK2 said:
So basically the run up to the day that I bought was too steep/significant? It did pull back some, setting up my 7EMA crossover but the stock was already exhausted by then?

Okay, that makes sense to me.

thank you
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Sure, after the fact you can say that. You really need a bull market for these MA crossover strategies to work otherwise you get chopped up like you are now.

BTW, did you follow my advice from a couple posts above? On Feb 24th it gave you that hammer candle below support and then shot up and made a new high at $37. I ended up taking the trade and made some nice profit, so I'm glad I saw this thread!
 
haha, i did not take that trade but happy to find it for somebody. Im staying close to 70% cash due to the current status of things, but i did make some money back last week!
 
Dogsun said:
Your strategy didn't work here because after the run up to $39.93 it pulled back into a range and is consolidating. In a range, you look to fade not buy breakouts (unless it's a clear breakout over the top of the range.) If I were to play this, I would wait for it to dip below recent support at $35.58 and show you a hammer candle or an engulfing candle and then go long. But remember, in a range you fade...so when it runs up and the ema 7 crosses back above the ema 20 I would look to sell at least 3/4 of my position. Maybe keep a portion running in case it keeps going up with a stop loss at breakeven.
More...
I’m following this thread with the goal of trying to learn from it. I don’t see the stock ever getting to $39.93.what am I missing?

upload_2022-3-6_21-57-38.png
 
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