Is it the economy or my MA swing strategy?

[DublAK2]

So I started live trading at the end of December, which has not exactly gone to plan.

My basic plan has been to buy stocks whose EMA(7) crosses the EMA (20). To ensure the stock is REALLY in a trend I've added the SMA(50) and SMA(200) to charts. The price has to be above both the SMA(50) and SMA(200) and I want their slopes to elevating.

I've been toggling between EMA cross under and a 3xATR(22) chandelier stop as an exit.

Since the New Year I've lost about 8% of my account already. I was so certain that my setup was so selective that I would find winning stocks, albeit scarce. The crossovers I choose seem to U turn pretty quickly.

Is my strategy crap or will this work in a better economy?

 

[deaddog]

You've been fighting the market. If you bought and held SPY you'd be down about the same and had to live through a 12% drawdown.

You might want to add in a filter for the general market. Like don't trade or only trade small size if the S&P is below the 150 day or something like that.

 

[SunTrader]

Price goes up ..... and price goes down. Go long the former, go short the latter.

 

[taowave]

How does this compare to your In/Out sampling??

Do you have any volatility filters??

How does the ATR compare with the average?? What percent stop is that?? Are you adjusting position size to make up for the vol expansion?

Any fundamental filters,not that it matters much..

I use DeadDogs Spy filter..

In hindsight,shit was pretty extended..

So I started live trading at the end of December, which has not exactly gone to plan.

My basic plan has been to buy stocks whose EMA(7) crosses the EMA (20). To ensure the stock is REALLY in a trend I've added the SMA(50) and SMA(200) to charts. The price has to be above both the SMA(50) and SMA(200) and I want their slopes to elevating.

I've been toggling between EMA cross under and a 3xATR(22) chandelier stop as an exit.

Since the New Year I've lost about 8% of my account already. I was so certain that my setup was so selective that I would find winning stocks, albeit scarce. The crossovers I choose seem to U turn pretty quickly.

Is my strategy crap or will this work in a better economy?

 

[maxinger]

your writeup is too simplified with lots of vital details missing.
So we don't know what is your trading problem.

Try doing demo again but with all the MAs and ATR removed.


Obviously, you shouldn't be blaming the economy/market because
the market has been moving very massively and the volatility has been excellent.
ie there are tons of trading opportunities.

 

[deaddog]

Obviously, you shouldn't be blaming the economy/market because
the market has been moving very massively and the volatility has been excellent.
ie there are tons of trading opportunities.

Depends to the type of trader you are. For a long only swing trader you need the market to be trending.

I know a good trader will adjust to the market but I have found that my style benefits from sitting on the side-lines until the market starts trending again.

 

[smallfil]

So I started live trading at the end of December, which has not exactly gone to plan.

My basic plan has been to buy stocks whose EMA(7) crosses the EMA (20). To ensure the stock is REALLY in a trend I've added the SMA(50) and SMA(200) to charts. The price has to be above both the SMA(50) and SMA(200) and I want their slopes to elevating.

I've been toggling between EMA cross under and a 3xATR(22) chandelier stop as an exit.

Since the New Year I've lost about 8% of my account already. I was so certain that my setup was so selective that I would find winning stocks, albeit scarce. The crossovers I choose seem to U turn pretty quickly.

Is my strategy crap or will this work in a better economy?

Moving averages are lagging indicators. Did you know that? You need 7 days to get the average and get 1 data point. A lot of things happen everyday, let alone 7 days? By the time you act, the stock price has moved a mile? Like all tools, moving averages are just that. As a trading system, it has a lot of weaknesses.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

So I started live trading at the end of December, which has not exactly gone to plan.

My basic plan has been to buy stocks whose EMA(7) crosses the EMA (20). To ensure the stock is REALLY in a trend I've added the SMA(50) and SMA(200) to charts. The price has to be above both the SMA(50) and SMA(200) and I want their slopes to elevating.

I've been toggling between EMA cross under and a 3xATR(22) chandelier stop as an exit.

Since the New Year I've lost about 8% of my account already. I was so certain that my setup was so selective that I would find winning stocks, albeit scarce. The crossovers I choose seem to U turn pretty quickly.

Is my strategy crap or will this work in a better economy?

If EMA crossovers were enough, then everyone would do it.

List some trades you were really certain about and we can do some post trade analysis.

 

[persistence]

So I started live trading at the end of December, which has not exactly gone to plan.

My basic plan has been to buy stocks whose EMA(7) crosses the EMA (20). To ensure the stock is REALLY in a trend I've added the SMA(50) and SMA(200) to charts. The price has to be above both the SMA(50) and SMA(200) and I want their slopes to elevating.

I've been toggling between EMA cross under and a 3xATR(22) chandelier stop as an exit.

Since the New Year I've lost about 8% of my account already. I was so certain that my setup was so selective that I would find winning stocks, albeit scarce. The crossovers I choose seem to U turn pretty quickly.

Is my strategy crap or will this work in a better economy?

Did you backtest it or not? Yes or no?

My strategy has been working live since october 2019 without a negative week, I've made money during covid, after covid and I still make money. It's not the economy, you should take a second look.

You should NEVER go live before backtest your system.

Here's my way of work: hypothesis > code > backtest different periods > go live with a small amount of money > go live with real money

Best of luck to you.

 

[murray t turtle]

So I started live trading at the end of December, which has not exactly gone to plan.

My basic plan has been to buy stocks whose EMA(7) crosses the EMA (20). To ensure the stock is REALLY in a trend I've added the SMA(50) and SMA(200) to charts. The price has to be above both the SMA(50) and SMA(200) and I want their slopes to elevating.

I've been toggling between EMA cross under and a 3xATR(22) chandelier stop as an exit.

Since the New Year I've lost about 8% of my account already. I was so certain that my setup was so selective that I would find winning stocks, albeit scarce. The crossovers I choose seem to U turn pretty quickly.
Is my strategy crap or will this work in a better economy?

%%
I love moving averages, they underline + overline price;
NEVER could find a ma cross much use\except 50 \200 dma cross.
But even with a proven winner like 50\ 200 dma cross;
200 dma is more important.
YOU may want to do more research, i do also+ a up sloping 200dma is actually to slow for me, if u like it fine with me
AS of JAN , FEB, markets have mostly going down, like monthly+ daily....... charts. Some sectors uptrend, but profits may differ / WHEN its a stronger UP/trend