Is it really possible to feel the markets?

[drcha]

Next up on ET: Electricity. Can anyone really explain it?

Well, it's just electrons moving around. No one has ever seen one, but like the market, you can "feel" them if you dig your toast out with a fork.

 

[Smart Money]

I remember reading about a guy who worked on Wall Street during the stone ages before electronics. He worked as a sign handler, and would post stock prices up on a board in the form of cardboard signs. He supposedly got rich by buying stock that he felt was about to jump based on it's activity. I guess if you had to life a cardboard sign every time price changed, you'd develop some kind of intuition? Anyone remember who that was?

 

[murray t turtle]

I remember reading about a guy who worked on Wall Street during the stone ages before electronics. He worked as a sign handler, and would post stock prices up on a board in the form of cardboard signs. He supposedly got rich by buying stock that he felt was about to jump based on it's activity. I guess if you had to life a cardboard sign every time price changed, you'd develop some kind of intuition? Anyone remember who that was?

%%
Not exactly Smart Money; but thats why some traders like to use hand noted -paper charts.
AS far as feel, that is mostly a statement of personality. Study that. Except you ever drove 4 on floor straight shift ???? Do it enough, you go by feel, which is mostly experience....

 

[Cswim63]

Most truck drivers do not use the clutch except for first gear and rev. Try going through 18 without grinding then you'll know if you have feel.

 

[Redneck]

I remember reading about a guy who worked on Wall Street during the stone ages before electronics. He worked as a sign handler, and would post stock prices up on a board in the form of cardboard signs. He supposedly got rich by buying stock that he felt was about to jump based on it's activity. I guess if you had to life a cardboard sign every time price changed, you'd develop some kind of intuition? Anyone remember who that was?

Hand charting

RN

 

[Dolemite]

But as the OP questioned, feeling the current price movement is quite possible. But that feeling should follow analysis, and is best used to determine the relativity of the price movement in question.

I don't understand the difference. Woudn't "feeling the current price" only be beneficial if it is used to predict what is next?

 

[WildBill]

Problem is that naive and desperate folks find forums such as these, read posts from pizza delivery drivers posing as millionaire traders, and end up taking risks on leveraged instruments in the markets thinking they can do something that hasn't been tried by another human in the exchange in a 100 years.
It's kind of pathetic but entertaining. Futures, Options, Forex and Margin trading is a losers' game.

Q3D is that you?

 

[learner2007]

I don't understand the difference. Woudn't "feeling the current price" only be beneficial if it is used to predict what is next?

Please re-read what I feel about 'prediction', below.

While analysis comes first, you could say that a 'feel' for the price movement would be of value when your setup is somewhat less than picture perfect, or in determining a better entry/exit point. Additionally, in a more precise analysis of context.
Sorry, it's hard for me to put it in words.

Predicting the price of the next bar, today's close, tomorrow's open, the Dow on your dog's next birthday etc, must be one of the greatest pitfalls in investment and trading. Prediction is equivalent in worth to the Dartinpaper method of stock picking!
But as the OP questioned, feeling the current price movement is quite possible. But that feeling should follow analysis, and is best used to determine the relativity of the price movement in question.

 

[Simples]

Please re-read what I feel about 'prediction', below.

While analysis comes first, you could say that a 'feel' for the price movement would be of value when your setup is somewhat less than picture perfect, or in determining a better entry/exit point. Additionally, in a more precise analysis of context.
Sorry, it's hard for me to put it in words.

Feelings lead to analysis. At least for me, the frustration of banging head against wall, lead to more analysis, hopefully more and more in-tune with what price is doing. What I mean by that is, beyond simple SMA(X)>SMA(Y) and RSI(2) > 80 signals, but not disregarding such possibilities either. An expert uses the right tool at the right time.

A computer/AI that creates and tests trading rules could work in similar fashion: Fading bad tactics and strategies that fails statistically ("hurtful" to longest-term pnl), evolving rules that are more and more in-tune with what price is doing.

Sometimes we need "training wheels" in order to see what price is really doing, missing the forest for the whipsaw-trees. There, indicators and levels/areas may help us get a feel, in order to find and validate new trading rules. It's a mistake to underestimate the power of our subconsciousness and Big Mind, but the biggest hurdle is translating those "feelings" into concrete validated correct actions.

Our search should end in logical simplicity and/or validated statistical significant results. As humans, we are emotional and irrational beings, and would best exploit our strengths rather than cover up our weaknesses by trying to work like a machine, unless that is your own personal strength..

 

[learner2007]

Feelings lead to analysis. At least for me, the frustration of banging head against wall, lead to more analysis, hopefully more and more in-tune with what price is doing. What I mean by that is, beyond simple SMA(X)>SMA(Y) and RSI(2) > 80 signals, but not disregarding such possibilities either. An expert uses the right tool at the right time.

A computer/AI that creates and tests trading rules could work in similar fashion: Fading bad tactics and strategies that fails statistically ("hurtful" to longest-term pnl), evolving rules that are more and more in-tune with what price is doing.

Sometimes we need "training wheels" in order to see what price is really doing, missing the forest for the whipsaw-trees. There, indicators and levels/areas may help us get a feel, in order to find and validate new trading rules. It's a mistake to underestimate the power of our subconsciousness and Big Mind, but the biggest hurdle is translating those "feelings" into concrete validated correct actions.

Our search should end in logical simplicity and/or validated statistical significant results. As humans, we are emotional and irrational beings, and would best exploit our strengths rather than cover up our weaknesses by trying to work like a machine, unless that is your own personal strength..

What you say is true. But the 'feeling' that I referred to was not the emotional type, but that which one may develop through the manual posting of charts. Please see my previous posting below.

[Having started before the days of computers, I manually updated about 300 charts daily. I believe this did give me a feeling(understanding) regarding price movement that enables me to have a more detailed and correct interpretation of TA that I might not have gained from screen-only observations. It might be an interesting exercise for those brought up on screens to manually post even just 5 or 10 active stocks or contracts for a year or two to see if it helps them in any way. From my experience I think it would very well be worth the small amount of time and effort involved.

I do not believe in the intuition type of feeling, and regard it as no more than gambling.]