Is it really possible to feel the markets?

Is it really possible to feel the markets?

I don't like to literally think of it as "feel" of the markets -- that kind of makes it sound like you need an element of Supernatural abilities to succeed in trading. :wtf::confused:
Which of course, you don't.

I believe every trader, more or less, has a "feel" for their given market or instrument or segment. Which usually stems mainly from experience.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: trading is part art, part science...you need to be able to slither your way around for the kill. and have patience too to observe.

I say F*uck feelings. -- just when you think you have a feeling, the market seems to humble you. Always look at things from a neutral point of view, as seen from both sides. Keep all the variables lingering in the back of your head though.

I have a fairly good accuracy...on how the DOW/SPY will behave during the day, right before the market opens.
And if not, i'm there to react and improvise.
in my opinion, the Longer timeframe horizon you try to predict or feel the market...the more ambiguous and difficult it becomes.
 
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Simples said:
@drcha : Is there some type of activity in your life where you just "know" what to do, even though you have no basis in fact or experience that you know of (consciously)? And when you follow this "inner voice", it usually turns alright or just as it should, even though you had no way of knowing for sure, or didn't need to "think it through".

Intuition is not decoupled from experience, logic, reason. In fact, you should always check sparks of ideas and unknown knowledge against it. So this is how it works, although exactly how it works is very fuzzy, individual and heavily dependent on everything else in and around you.

It's sort of like a flow. If you try to reason about everything in life, you lose it (the connection) and easily get lost. We cannot possibly analyse every life-decision, what makes us happy are of unknown quantification. Both because we haven't already had our future happiness, but also because there's no happiness in the past or the future - only in the present. So the last choice is always to live life fully and embrace all of it. Everything can't be explained and measured, because the whole has more value than any simple sum of its parts.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/19/the-habits-of-highly-intu_n_4958778.html
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Yes, I think they are not decoupled. Yes, I can think of times when I "just know" and I don't know why. But I believe they are based on experience. For example, I'm remarkably good at sizing people up. Also, I am often able to anticipate when someone is going to cut me off or do some other stupid thing in traffic. Although these abilities seem to come from thin air, I believe they stem from facts based on many years of knowledge and experience. I've known many people, and studied how they behave and why they might do the things they do. And I think the traffic thing is explained by my split-second, unconscious observations of the other driver's movements that clue me into the fact he's about to violate my lane or intersection. Now that I think of it, these are areas where I have natural interests and have made conscious efforts to improve and monitor my own improvement (understand people better, drive excellently in traffic).

What I don't understand is how we humans come to interpret objective data as subjective (believe we are feeling the market instead of reading it). Maybe it happens when we don't have time to examine things objectively. If I sat around thinking about what evidence I see for why I suddenly think someone is about to try to sideswipe me on the road, I would never get around to taking the action that's required to avoid it.

All women believe they have intuition. But I think I really do. I'm frequently told by other women how perceptive I am about people. It is comforting to be able to rely on my own impressions. However, I'm the complete opposite for trading. I try not to use any feelings to make trading decisions. I don't have any intuition about what the market will do. I enjoy thinking about my guesses and discussing them with others, but don't buy or sell on the basis of them. Maybe it's too early. I have only been trading for about 20 years. That is much less time than I have been driving or hanging out with people.
 
drcha said:
Yes, I think they are not decoupled. Yes, I can think of times when I "just know" and I don't know why. But I believe they are based on experience. For example, I'm remarkably good at sizing people up. Also, I am often able to anticipate when someone is going to cut me off or do some other stupid thing in traffic. Although these abilities seem to come from thin air, I believe they stem from facts based on many years of knowledge and experience. I've known many people, and studied how they behave and why they might do the things they do. And I think the traffic thing is explained by my split-second, unconscious observations of the other driver's movements that clue me into the fact he's about to violate my lane or intersection. Now that I think of it, these are areas where I have natural interests and have made conscious efforts to improve and monitor my own improvement (understand people better, drive excellently in traffic).

What I don't understand is how we humans come to interpret objective data as subjective (believe we are feeling the market instead of reading it). Maybe it happens when we don't have time to examine things objectively. If I sat around thinking about what evidence I see for why I suddenly think someone is about to try to sideswipe me on the road, I would never get around to taking the action that's required to avoid it.

All women believe they have intuition. But I think I really do. I'm frequently told by other women how perceptive I am about people. It is comforting to be able to rely on my own impressions. However, I'm the complete opposite for trading. I try not to use any feelings to make trading decisions. I don't have any intuition about what the market will do. I enjoy thinking about my guesses and discussing them with others, but don't buy or sell on the basis of them. Maybe it's too early. I have only been trading for about 20 years. That is much less time than I have been driving or hanging out with people.
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What it might depend on, is years of patterns, our psychological makeup, experience, aquaintances, upbringing, wealth, hardship, etc. So these patterns both enable and limit us. When they help, it's comforting, natural and efficient - much more so than thinking about all the details and putting them methodically together. When they limit us, it creates some sort of pain and maybe problems. Same for trading. As long as we're stuck with the same models, ie. believing markets must be traded mechanically, we miss the clues how to get a discretionary perspective. Our mind simply won't go there, because we deny it the opportunity for all sorts of personal and subjective reasons.

And that's fine. For some folks, they can't trade mechanically, but find the way in themselves. A very few can do both. We're all so different. Even though superficially conditioned to many of the same responses, everyone is a special snowflake. Empathy is considering, how is it to be that other person?

That data is objective, is a subjective opinion! :p The data itself might have issues, but more importantly, a different person might have very different perspectives, preferences and approach.
 
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dealmaker said:
....suggests starting point of charting manually
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Having started before the days of computers, I manually updated about 300 charts daily. I believe this did give me a feeling(understanding) regarding price movement that enables me to have a more detailed and correct interpretation of TA that I might not have gained from screen-only observations. It might be an interesting exercise for those brought up on screens to manually post even just 5 or 10 active stocks or contracts for a year or two to see if it helps them in any way. From my experience I think it would very well be worth the small amount of time and effort involved.

I do not believe in the intuition type of feeling, and regard it as no more than gambling.
 
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Get a feel for the markets, yes. Some of market activity is based on sentiment, and generally there is a consensus.

Of course, this gets thrown out any time there is unexpected news, unexpected shifts in fundamental data, unexpected central bank or government action, or unexpected macro events.

It's kinda like counting cards at blackjack. It will give you an edge. That gets tossed out if the pit boss changes the deck or rules mid game. And this happens in the real world.
 
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