Is it possible to time the market?

crashdummy847 said:
Newbie here! I've heard the quote along the lines of"It's not about timing the market, it's about time in the market". Why do people so often discourage timing the market? Are there no ways to predict a stock rising in price over the course of days, months or even within a year?
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https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...dict-market-moves.357176/page-38#post-5358618

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fan27 said:
Exactly. Most successful "market timers" are correct on their bets less than half the time, yet they make money.
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To be fair, guys in the hft space, have win rates around 51-53%.

The problem with having a low win rate is that it means that overtime you will go bankrupt. This is because you don’t not know the actual return on your trade until you close it — so you would need to see what the actual returns look like. This type of trading only works in volatile markets, otherwise the average price swings are too small to make returns that compensate you for the negative skew. Most traders get this intuitively but just explaining for newbies.
 
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fan27 said:
Exactly. Most successful "market timers" are correct on their bets less than half the time, yet they make money.
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And when you focus on it, you found the details to get even better then 50%.
You must have patience but in position....
You #1 goal is to be break even or close to that.
If you really execute your trade with believe in the truth that nobody can predict the future. Break even is your best friend. Even more in scalping.
20% losers 30%break even 50%winers.
20% Losers when 50% are partial losses..
High yieald trading per day.
 
crashdummy847 said:
I've heard the quote along the lines of "It's not about timing the market, it's about time in the market".
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This is actually a very good quote. Winners are those who can last the longest, namely, to live to trade another day. Also, it's more important to MANAGE your trade (eg. knowing when to get out when you're wrong) than to TIME your trade.
 
My 2 cents:
Specialize on announced upcoming events (D-Day), and focus on & prepare for that D-Day...
For example Earnings Release dates, Dividend dates, FDA decision dates etc...
Such dates are well known in advance, so one can prepare for it... :)
 
crashdummy847 said:
Newbie here! I've heard the quote along the lines of"It's not about timing the market, it's about time in the market". Why do people so often discourage timing the market? Are there no ways to predict a stock rising in price over the course of days, months or even within a year?
More...

look there are beter ways to make money. I
 
Yes - it is possible but not easy to time the mkt at the big turns, there are often patterns that are similiar through history.

Win rates mean virtually nada, what wins the game is the sum of how much you make when right minus when wrong. Traders can & do go bust with win rates of 90% while some make fortunes at 25-30%.
 
comagnum said:
Yes - it is possible but not easy to time the mkt at the big turns, there are often patterns that are similiar through history.

Win rates mean virtually nada, what wins the game is the sum of how much you make when right minus when wrong. Traders can & do go bust with win rates of 90% while some make fortunes at 25-30%.
More...
what wins is the dude works hard not us imeciles who think can make money on the internet
 
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