Is it possible to time the market?

crashdummy847 said:
Newbie here! I've heard the quote along the lines of"It's not about timing the market, it's about time in the market". Why do people so often discourage timing the market? Are there no ways to predict a stock rising in price over the course of days, months or even within a year?
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Few people make lot of money by timing the market by using predictive analysis which most often makes money. Takes years to master and truly requires deep thinking of one’s own. And even after that there are hundreds of things to conquer - emotion and discipline is few amongst them. It is rewarding for those who have travelled that path successfully without blowing up their account in the learning stages.

Whereas, those who invest for real long term will mostly make some money eventually and lose less as they will hold on to the losses. And hoping the cheap stocks they invest don’t go belly up.
 
Those who concentrate on risk, before the entry, during the trade, extremes-whether to get out or hedge, all can somewhat control is risk. Profit is a reward of knowing risk well.
 
longandshort said:
To be fair, guys in the hft space, have win rates around 51-53%.

The problem with having a low win rate is that it means that overtime you will go bankrupt. This is because you don’t not know the actual return on your trade until you close it — so you would need to see what the actual returns look like. This type of trading only works in volatile markets, otherwise the average price swings are too small to make returns that compensate you for the negative skew. Most traders get this intuitively but just explaining for newbies.
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There is a few basic difference in the way retail trades and institutions (hft, etc) trades...for example speed and size of trade.

What is boon for one is surely going to be a mishap for the other.

Pure play hft’s days were long gone...

There are reasons why hft’s love markets where novice traders are active.

Similarly there are reasons why seasoned traders love markets where hft’s are getting active ;)
 
The saying, timing the market, is far too vague to be useful. Therefore its vague enough to be denied.

Be realistic with specific outcomes over defined time periods. Its like forecasting the weather. Obviously nobody in the middle of winter can predict the weather on a date 6 months ahead. But it is low-risk to predict it will be warmer. The risk reduces with each passing week as the temperature rises. This is just another type of trend.
 
sandy_s said:
Few people make lot of money by timing the market by using predictive analysis which most often makes money. Takes years to master and truly requires deep thinking of one’s own. And even after that there are hundreds of things to conquer - emotion and discipline is few amongst them. It is rewarding for those who have travelled that path successfully without blowing up their account in the learning stages.

Whereas, those who invest for real long term will mostly make some money eventually and lose less as they will hold on to the losses. And hoping the cheap stocks they invest don’t go belly up.
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no
 
crashdummy847 said:
Newbie here! I've heard the quote along the lines of"It's not about timing the market, it's about time in the market". Why do people so often discourage timing the market? Are there no ways to predict a stock rising in price over the course of days, months or even within a year?
More...
Bill Acman timed covi well.

At least when it comes to the next flu pandemic, if given a deeper look into how the things escalated, it would be possible to do so in a frame of 2 - 4 months.

The key dots should connect tho.
 
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