Nowhere did I suggest that anyone should search for absolute certainty. Quite the opposite. No one can trade with hindsight, hence there is no absolute certainty in trading. Forgive me for not belaboring the obvious.
Is It a Reversal or a Pullback?
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Nowhere did I suggest that anyone should search for absolute certainty. Quite the opposite. No one can trade with hindsight, hence there is no absolute certainty in trading. Forgive me for not belaboring the obvious.
With all due respect, but I don't agree with "[T]he only way to know for absolute certain whether a move is a pullback or a reversal is with hindsight." This is merely a truism. If you want absolute certainty, you won't find it. Be that as it may, do you not know ahead of time where you should exit the trade should price go against you? Why can't you apply the same concept to the pullbacks and reversals? Just my opinion, of course.
Edit: it appears that you said pretty much what I've just wrote in your last post.
This is exactly what I'm talking about. What a load of gibberish.
We, on the other hand, thank you for your non-contribution.
Given that you guys are talking in circles about nothing new, way to pay your self on the back.
Is It a Reversal or a Pullback?
This is the question everyone who learns TA eventually asks. It's equivalent to asking, "What happens next?" Nobody has a definitive answer. I have seen many attempts to answer this question with qualifiers, but nobody really knows what happens next. If you could answer this question with any consistency, you would be wealthy very, very quickly. And who do you know that is? Correct ... nobody, except for the occasional lucky monkey.
This is the question everyone who learns TA eventually asks. It's equivalent to asking, "What happens next?" Nobody has a definitive answer. I have seen many attempts to answer this question with qualifiers, but nobody really knows what happens next. If you could answer this question with any consistency, you would be wealthy very, very quickly. And who do you know that is? Correct ... nobody, except for the occasional lucky monkey.
You've answered your own question. Granted, there's no holy grail or secret to successful trading. However, those lucky few who are able to ask and answer the right question will advance to the next level. When was the last time a serious question(s) was/were asked about a reversal? This is a rhetorical question, so no need for a reply.
Of course. I get out when my indicator shows that the current trend has disappeared or reversed.
Aside from the fact that my indicator doesn't work that way, there's the fact that pullbacks and reversals occur in the same direction: opposite to the current trend. The difference is that one is an end to the trend and the other is just a pause in the trend. Knowing the difference as soon as the move manifests is the challenge.
I am intrigued. What is the right question?
I can't say I have the answer. Even if I did, you won't hear it from me or anyone else. After all, this thread ain't about providing answers but rather to aid in stimulating you to ask questions that you might have otherwise overlooked.
Anyway, I believe you are not being honest with yourself. You must know there's more to reversal/pullback than just being the two faces of the same coin—reversal being the head, pullback the tail. Allow me to address the same question in a different way. Is the "dip" (pullback) same as the "breakdown" (reversal)? Just when does a dip become a breakdown? That is, when does a dip fail? On the contrary, if the dip holds, does that mean the reversal failed? I could go on and on, but you get my drift.
BTW I hope I don't rub anyone up the wrong way if I sounded like a guru, which is the last thing I have in mind.