Is Amazon a Fad?

1) fundamentally, the idea of Amazon's business can be replicated by eBay, by Walmart, by Alibaba,... potentially by anyone.


1. No it can't. Sears was the number one retailer in the U.S. for 75? years. They put the mom and pop corner stores out of business 100 years ago. Sears invented the mail order catalog and mail order business. But then they failed to adapt to changes and they did not evolve into online businesses. Either they lacked the vision or the talent to change. Ditto for JCP, Montgomery Ward and K Mart. Now, WM and Amazon are putting them out of business.
What goes around comes around.

Alibaba is slightly different, they are ebay and amazon combined......but their business model is based on counterfeit goods and shady accounting procedures. Stay away from them.


2. Amazon kindle is doing fine. Amazon sells more books online...ebooks than physical books. I would say that is successful.

Amazon 's space service is doing fine. How many other nations in the world have independent companies that offer private rocket launches?


3. Amazon Video is only a few years old and NFLX has been around for about 18 or 20 years. I watch their movies if I am bored .......most of their movies are B grade, but they are free.
It's a sweetener to encourage people to enroll in Amazon Prime and when I enrolled last December for $79 ( it was a special from their normal $99) I canceled my NFLX subscription.

Free shipping and free movies. Life is good.

Besides, NFLX is a one trick pony. Two tricks if you count their in house programs they produce. AMZN has online mail service in many nations, space research and cloud storage.


When I subscribed to NFLX, there were many times I looked at their movies and did not see anything I wanted to watch. It was not uncommon for me to go 2-3 months without watching one. NFLX was the first, but they are not necessarily the best for movies. Unless you watch their in house programs. You can find second rate movies anywhere....youtube has them as well.

Bottomline, Amazon stock is a fad! the company doesn't have the original proprietary technologies to carve a niche for itself. Many of its businesses are replicable!



1. No it can't. Sears was the number one retailer in the U.S. for 75? years. They put the mom and pop corner stores out of business 100 years ago. Sears invented the mail order catalog and mail order business. But then they failed to adapt to changes and they did not evolve into online businesses. Either they lacked the vision or the talent to change. Ditto for JCP, Montgomery Ward and K Mart. Now, WM and Amazon are putting them out of business.
What goes around comes around.

BTW, Amazon is establishing their own airborne delivery service. They purchased 200? jets and they are building their own air hub .....I want to say it is in TN, but I am too lazy to research it. Anyhow, they think they can deliver their products faster and cheaper than UPS or FEDEX. If they can do that, then they will probably start delivering packages that are currently delivered by them as well as the Post Office.

Alibaba is slightly different, they are ebay and amazon combined......but their business model is based on counterfeit goods and shady accounting procedures. Stay away from them.


2. Amazon kindle is doing fine. Amazon sells more books online...ebooks than physical books. I would say that is successful.
Amazon 's space service is doing fine. How many other nations in the world have independent companies that offer private rocket launches?

3. Amazon Video is only a few years old and NFLX has been around for about 18 or 20 years. I watch their movies if I am bored .......most of their movies are B grade, but they are free. It's a sweetener to encourage people to enroll in Amazon Prime and when I enrolled last December for $79 ( it was a special from their normal $99) I canceled my NFLX subscription.

Free shipping and free movies. Life is good.

Besides, NFLX is a one trick pony. Two tricks if you count their in house programs they produce. AMZN has online mail service in many nations, space research and cloud storage.

When I subscribed to NFLX, there were many times I looked at their movies and did not see anything I wanted to watch. It was not uncommon for me to go 2-3 months without watching one. NFLX was the first, but they are not necessarily the best for movies. Unless you watch their in house programs. You can find second rate movies anywhere....youtube has them as well.

AMZN seems to have mastered overnight delivery and e books. The next step will be 3D printing. You see something you want online, download the program and bingo.......no doubt amazon will be selling the 3D printers and programs to go with it as well.

Bottomline, Amazon stock is a fad! the company doesn't have the original proprietary technologies to carve a niche for itself. Many of its businesses are replicable!

AMZN is a fad? Did you bother to review the chart you posted ?

According to your chart, last April their stock was around 600 dollars a share and now it is $909......up $300/51% in one year. That's a heck of a fad. It might be priced a bit high with a P/E ratio of 185, but they aren't going bust anytime soon.
 
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Warren Buffett said that Jeff Bezos is an authentic genius and the single best businessman he had ever met. US retail alone is $5T marketplace and AMZN has less than 10% of that plus let's not forget AWS whose addressable market is also in trillions.
 
I been an amazon customer since 2002, this is how many orders i have placed every year since i opened my account.

2016 161
2015 123
2014 115
2013 66
2012 96
2011 66
2010 66
2009 28
2008 21
2007 17
2006 4
2005 3
2004 2
2003 1
2002 2


So i currently place 80 times the number of orders compared to what i placed in 2002.

Coincidently the amazon share price has also gone up about x80 since 2002.
 
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AMZN is heading towards becoming a global retail monopoly. The brand name is enormous and probably bigger than Apple and Google right now.

eBay is probably its biggest threat because it's trying to amalgamate all other big retailers onto its platform.
 
Look, forget about the ancillary businesses like video streaming and space travel. That's just distracting your perspective.

Amazon is a ridiculously amazing company, and I am impressed by their service weekly and I've been using them for at least 10 years. Amazon is not a fad by any measure. In fact, they are the GOLD STANDARD for online retail.... end of story. I buy my household products from there, my supplements, my clothes, my electronics........ my everything.

And the crazy thing is that in many cases, they deliver what I order the SAME DAY, and for no added shipping cost since I'm a Prime member. So if I order early in the morning, they literally have my order to my door by 8PM. Who else does that? Nobody! I haven't encountered one other service that even comes close to the delivery times that Amazon provides.

I just don't see the downside with AMZN. Sorry.
This thread appears to be someone attempting to be the hero by ringing the warning bell when there really is no cause for alarm.
 
beerntrading - I read a article a long time ago. it featured a guy who day traded drunk. believe it or not he made money :) [being drunk made him fearless]. If I have time I'll look it up for you.
it must be a similar to the study that shows a monkey throwing darts outperforms most hedge fund managers. the study didn't include marketsurfer.
 
I been an amazon customer since 2002, this is how many orders i have placed every year since i opened my account.

2016 161
2015 123
2014 115
2013 66
2012 96
2011 66
2010 66
2009 28
2008 21
2007 17
2006 4
2005 3
2004 2
2003 1
2002 2


So i currently place 80 times the number of orders compared to what i placed in 2002.

Coincidently the amazon share price has also gone up about x80 since 2002.
you should follow the Peter Lynch approach to investing. buy what you like. we all should.
 
you should follow the Peter Lynch approach to investing. buy what you like. we all should.

Start by writing a list of everything you purchase and how you purchase it (apple pay, visa, mastercard, paypal, square etc).
 
you should follow the Peter Lynch approach to investing. buy what you like. we all should.

Im not an stock investor. But if i was i would have bought some IBRK when it was around 13 and Peterfly was saying he was going to buy back stock if the price fell below that level.
 
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