Inventory Grab Alert 4/30/09!

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Quote from AMT4SWA:

Notice how they conveniently banged out 30 point targets from the 919/918 SELL's into the close. :) The SELL'rs sure drove that bus hard today.....and never even stopped for snacks! :eek:


I will be watching the EU action tonight......they might "give it up" more and take us to the lower 880's (and get me my 882.25 fills). If that happens, tomorrow will be all tee'd up for the 876's test! :cool:
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We havent gotten the 882.5 yet....lets test that this afternoon.

CD has been divergent to yesterdays low. I have been taking shots at the long side all morning. Had to wash out a few times but finally caught the 4 pt at 85.25 .
 
Quote from AMT4SWA:

When you rollover to a new contract of course you would buy in at whatever price you paid at order entry (while then locking in profits from the closed out contract). But the held position "origination" cost basis was from the 876's area for the previous contract (for those held LONG's from the lower delta zone discussed). Yes the position has to be rolled over to the new contract to maintain the position, but the "origination" cost basis for the held position started from the delta zone pricing area. If price trades back to those support levels "on paper" those remaining positions would be at/near b/e from the point the overall position was first originated (counting in the "booked" profit from the closed out previous contracts).......if price trades 876's then the originated LONG positions from that delta support zone last month will be back to b/e of the trade origination point.
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Now THAT explanation clears up heaps of confusion on the rollover process. Thanks AMT.
 
Quote from Whisky:

How do you know which one of the divergences to take as a long entry, or you take them all and then the exit strategy takes care of the losses, or do you wait for a retest of 884.25?.

JW
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I wish I could tell you a definitive answer. I am not the resident expert on CDV usage.

I was hoping AMT would weigh in on it.

On one hand, you have appears to be 20k net longs from 884-888.

On the other hand, 884 is middle of nowhere compared to say, 872. 884 might not be backed up by an important pre-existing delta zone.

But is it possible that we formed a new net long delta zone here? Are they possibly layering in an inventory of longs? I've no idea. AMT4SWA?

It did seem like odd behavior to me. They purchased a lot of contracts at the offer and yet prices didnt substantially rise.

Personally, I took a long at 888.25, looking for an exit at 895. It never made it to my target.
 
Hello AMT,


Looks like longs used today to build up a increased net long position for a retest of the 900 area or higher first before a test of 872?

If this is what you also see, if you aren't already in a position yet, would this keep you out of shorts for the time being?
 
Quote from nirav34:

895.25-891.50 is where they look like they're building short positions. Strictly looking at the volume profile chart. Would like to see this line get tested for CD. Anyone looking at something different?

http://www.charthub.com/images/2009/06/23/Untitled_30.png
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Unless my CD readings are wrong, it looks like those short are gone for all practical purposes . . . at EOD it looks like there might have been a build of shorts at the 893.50 touch, but I'd think a lot of those were profit takers from LOD . . . is the area you mention a reference point for intraday action? I think, Yes, but todays LOD is bigger . . . IMHO

jmonday actually may have a valid point. We saw massive divergence at test of the LOD early in the AM, we actually made new lows from AH but each time on positive delta. As far as I can tell, there seem to be a large (~25K) buyer inventory in the 884.25-885.25 zone . . . and roughly 35K in the 884.25-887.25 zone . . .

A lousy day IMHO . . . everyone seems to be waiting for FOMC on Wednesday . . .

My $0.02 (I guess less as someone had pointed out earlier, we need to adjust for deflation ):) :)

I'll let AMT enlighten us . . .
 
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