Intuition Amplifiers 2

Quote from marketsurfer:

Interesting post, but TA isn't followed by 99% of the big money boys who matter in the market--- I concur with Maestro mostly also
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I'm not going to comment about every bank, fund, etc. Intuitively, what you say seems cogent. However, surf, you know when you look at a chart that fibs, pivots, the multitude of indicators are respected at some points. The area where TA fails is that you don't know when it'll be respected or not or in what pattern. Hence the eternal quest for an "edge" where a ta pattern combined with money management gives you a positive expectancy. That's where most traders are at.

The whole question is trying to figure out what future traders are going to do. You have a very interesting system with pd, which it's with creativity that you get alpha. Maestro bring up analyzing behavior. All in all, a quality discussion.

Don't see why you think ET is dying. You'll never find a thread like this at BMT etc.
 
Quote from WS_MJH:

Thanks again for reposting this! A lot about trading is to determine what's going to happen next. After you enter your trade, you are at the mercy of other market participants who enter a trade after you. The question is whether based on all available data you can determine what people will do in the future.

Obviously people agree or disagree whether TA works and whether people will follow TA. I do like your psychological approach. Your example of how people react at a stoplight is well thought out. The question becomes is that most drivers know legally how they are suppose to act in a stoplight. Thus, there is almost closed rule set of how to act. However, in a trading environment, there are no rules and it's every man for himself in maximizing his profit. Can you find order in chaos?

You noted on slowing down the speed and analyzing of how traders react. I can see if you test out this price action that you can get certain patterns of repeating behavior that may show what might happen in the future. It's quasi like that genetic trading that's out there or hft. But I do think what you're alluding too is an interesting path because TA is not followed 100% of the time, hence why it's problematic.
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This is an extremely thoughtful post. I wish we had more of those on ET.

“A lot about trading is to determine what's going to happen next. After you enter your trade, you are at the mercy of other market participants who enter a trade after you. The question is whether based on all available data you can determine what people will do in the future.”

This is an extremely important, key point. That is why TA is powerless. There simply isn’t enough information about what other people will do next. That is also why it is fruitless to search for the price patterns. However, what the psychologists of all flavors (there are nine different types of psychological science there now) agree with is that the only and the best measure of future people behavior is their past behavior. Not the price behavior, but market participants’ further actions. The psychological “inertia’ is the only reliable force that could be properly measured and projected in the future. It has been researched and experimented with in many applied psychology labs. The question then becomes how do we recognize the behavior (or as I call the “perceptual patterns”) and assess whether they will sustain or not in the future. That is exactly what Intuition Amplifiers are designed to do. I will talk about it more in my future posts,
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

The bell curve galton-- My close friend V. Niederhoffer is a huge proponent of Galton, going so far as naming one of his children Galt.

surf
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Galton is one of my faves too! I think his "bean machine" is one of the most powerful statistical demonstrators of all times!
 
"Psychological inertia" means you are late to the party.Same as a crossover trading or any TA based trading.And yes,it may or may not sustain in the future.So where is an edge,where is the research.
 
To Maestro and MS_MJH

In mathematics, you can use limits and you can use transforms.

There are also philosophies of history to use.

The future does not matter.

In the Present, you have suffucient information to monitor, analyze, decide and act.


The above may not be true for you. You get the consequences.


On the otherhand, many many systems use feedback to iteratively refine the information available in the Present.

I have traded for a long time and I see the sax player and the femme face simultaineously. I see much more that just two entwined pics.

And, furthermore, I do need to do this consciously. My mind does all that is needed to rsemble an ATS, sub or unconsciously.

I know that I know for one reason only. You can mark my words.

As the future comes into the Present; the present is always certain. As events pass (time is NOT a variable), the market moves forward in a way that is ALWAYS CORRECT.


In conclusion, the limits of your "reactions" mathematically always lead to certainty. It is very possible to do transformations to have all you need to be certain.


You all can debate. I feel that the FI will be totally different in 5 years because of the IT that will take care of business. A human mind will be AIed up to the point of collective thought.

fro my part I plan on support the million vets and their families all of whom have prmary and secondary PTSD.

don't worry, I am not going to participate further in this thread.
 
Quote from MAESTRO:

This is an extremely thoughtful post. I wish we had more of those on ET.

“A lot about trading is to determine what's going to happen next. After you enter your trade, you are at the mercy of other market participants who enter a trade after you. The question is whether based on all available data you can determine what people will do in the future.”

This is an extremely important, key point. That is why TA is powerless. There simply isn’t enough information about what other people will do next. That is also why it is fruitless to search for the price patterns. However, what the psychologists of all flavors (there are nine different types of psychological science there now) agree with is that the only and the best measure of future people behavior is their past behavior. Not the price behavior, but market participants’ further actions. The psychological “inertia’ is the only reliable force that could be properly measured and projected in the future. It has been researched and experimented with in many applied psychology labs. The question then becomes how do we recognize the behavior (or as I call the “perceptual patterns”) and assess whether they will sustain or not in the future. That is exactly what Intuition Amplifiers are designed to do. I will talk about it more in my future posts,
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I agree with you, something to consider. Since you focus on psychology, which I agree with, but say TA is incomplete how do reconcile that smart money buys as the market panics and sell when there is a blow off top. Psychology which shows as a volume on a histogram bar. Crude compared to your high powered analysis for sure.
 
Quote from MAESTRO:

illusion_sax-1m71oe5.gif

Look at the picture above. You either see a musician or a girl’s face, but not both at the same time. Your mind shifts between the images without retaining both of them simultaneously.
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I can see both simultaneously. (There are other examples, like the spinning dancer, where I can only see her spin in one direction at a time.)
 
I believe the Burning Desire that Napoleon Hill wrote about in Think and Grow Rich was one such amplifier.

He said this white hot desire, which only comes when you have no path of escape, when mixed with faith, love, and the idea behind the task creates a pathway to "Infinite Intelligence" which a psychologist might call the Creative Imagination.

Ideas just start flashing in your mind...... really good ideas.
 
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