Intrade: Obama 58.1% Romney 41.6%

[walter4]

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474

 

[Tsing Tao]

Based almost entirely on the stock market performance. Not an especially good indicator by itself.

 

[walter4]

Never been wrong..

 

[JamesL]

Quote from walter4:

Never been wrong..

Notice where the numbers were right before the actual ruling

 

[John_Wensink]

Funny stuff.

Check how high corzine's numbers were before Christie beat him.

Quote from walter4:

Never been wrong..

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Bush /Kerry

Obama /McCain





2008 House





2008 Senate






2010 House(From July until election day they had Republicans taking the House over 50)




Wisconsin recall( Had Walker over 50 the life of the contract)

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from Tsing Tao:

Based almost entirely on the stock market performance.

It is probably poll based. Even the Reps don't want a Mormon president...

By the way fivethirtyeight gives similar chances based on the Electoral College. Obama's lead is 311 to 226:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/