Inflation? What inflation? Let's look at facts.

[Kassz007]

Quote from Picaso:

Yes, but the price of raw materials is only one factor in the final price in food paid by consumers:

- raw materials: up
- transportation: recently up, but down from a couple of years ago
- processing (labor intensive): down

Just because bulk sugar goes up doesn't mean people are going to balk at the cash register.

Much of the supposed "inflation" is asset-bubble related, not in the shopping-basket. As the Fed starts to drain liquidity later they will pop.

It is a serious problem for the poor in developing countries, though.

Correct. Certain commodities are surging, but this has not yet translated into higher consumer prices. Will it in the future? Maybe, I don't have a crystal ball. What I do know is that at this moment consumer prices are not surging with commodities.

 

[MKTrader]

Quote from Kassz007:

So cotton prices have increased. Great. On a related note:

"...apparel printed -0.3% (men's, women's, and infants' clothing fell but shoes gained)..."

It doesn't matter how the number is calculated as long as it is comparable. The question is, is October's CPI numbers comparable to previous CPI numbers?

That's one example. You failed to address the whole basket of commodities issue or the host of problems with CPI. Comparing a worthless indicator each month is, well, worthless for the most part.

 

[daytrader233]

<object width="640" height="390"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/PTUY16CkS-k&rel=0&hl=en_US&feature=player_embedded&version=3"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/PTUY16CkS-k&rel=0&hl=en_US&feature=player_embedded&version=3" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowScriptAccess="always" width="640" height="390"></embed></object>

 

[Martinghoul]

You guys ever heard of the Boskin Commission?

On another note, I have a question. The massive 2008 commodity price spike (driven to a large degree by crude prices), did that cause a hyperinflationary episode? If not, why?

 

[EMRGLOBAL]

CPI is beyond worthless, as is most Gov. Data.

The "Food" companies have yet to pass on their Higher Cost....but that is coming.

Oh the shit storm is a coming....wait til the consumers feel the full brunt of it....forget TSA revolt.....there will be a lot of pissed off people.

 

[Kassz007]

Quote from MKTrader:

That's one example. You failed to address the whole basket of commodities issue or the host of problems with CPI. Comparing a worthless indicator each month is, well, worthless for the most part.

I addressed commodities as a whole in a different post. The data right now does not show any sort of trickle down from higher commodities, save for gasoline. Will it in the future? Maybe, I'm no fortune teller. I prefer to look at the hard facts.

How come you are failing to address the whole auto and home price declines when arguing about inflation?

 

[Kassz007]

Quote from EMRGLOBAL:

CPI is beyond worthless, as is most Gov. Data.

The "Food" companies have yet to pass on their Higher Cost....but that is coming.

Oh the shit storm is a coming....wait til the consumers feel the full brunt of it....forget TSA revolt.....there will be a lot of pissed off people.

Government data being useless is getting to be a tired excuse for being wrong.

I wish I could see the future like you and just know that food companies are waiting to pass on higher food costs, but I can't. Like I said, maybe that will happen, maybe it won't. The goal of this thread to is debunk the myth that inflation is here RIGHT NOW.

 

[gucci]

Quote from Martinghoul:

You guys ever heard of the Boskin Commission?

Is it the bunch of clever guys telling people to substitute proper nutrition for a high quality bread and water from a food bank and not to worry about overestimated inflation?

Re 2008. Did you study the German inflation of 1920th?

 

[endsongs]

My grocery bill is about the same as it was a year ago, if not a little less. I don't expect it to stay this low for too much longer, however. Commodity producers often sell their wares 6 months or more in advance at lower prices than they would receive at spot during the 6 month period. So, it could take 6 months or more for the higher futures prices right now to make it to the retail level.

 

[dandxg]

What about hedging? General Mills and the like do hedge.