Inflation? What inflation? Let's look at facts.

K

Kassz007

October CPI: +0.2%
October Core CPI: Unchanged (0.0%)

http://imarketnews.com/?q=node/22571

"The core has its smallest over-the-year gain since this index was first reported, in 1957."

"Food posted +0.1% as cereals, fruits, and nonalcoholic beverages fell but dairy and meats surged."

"Gasoline was up for a fourth month in a row and accounted for almost 90% of the overall gain in CPI."

"There is nothing to worry about here for inflation, and the modest CPI data fit with the outlook that deflation or disinflation is more of a concern."



October PPI: +0.4%
October Core PPI: -0.6%

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aL1nId6Y32R0



When we look at the most current statistics on inflation, it appears that there is none to very little. For some reason, people have been worried about inflation for over a year now. It still has not arrived.

QE concerns unwarranted?
 
Read em and weep.



http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/FoodPricesIndex/en/


kf2nsx.jpg
 
Yes, but the price of raw materials is only one factor in the final price in food paid by consumers:

- raw materials: up
- transportation: recently up, but down from a couple of years ago
- processing (labor intensive): down

Just because bulk sugar goes up doesn't mean people are going to balk at the cash register.

Much of the supposed "inflation" is asset-bubble related, not in the shopping-basket. As the Fed starts to drain liquidity later they will pop.

It is a serious problem for the poor in developing countries, though. :(
 
Quote from Kassz007:



"There is nothing to worry about here for inflation, ......

When we look at the most current statistics on inflation, it appears that there is none to very little. For some reason, people have been worried about inflation for over a year now. It still has not arrived.

More...

All one has to do is check with real consumers in the real world about the cost of living. Ask any retiree who has not received a cost of living increase for the past several years and will not get one this year if the cost of living has increased. The CPI has been manipulated to report what the government wishes to convey.

I remember what one of my college accounting professors said once: " figures don't lie but liars can figure".
 
Quote from Hydroblunt:

You should go learn how CPI & PPI are calculated and have been adjusted over time to hide real inflation.
More...

Right. I'll get on that...
 
Quote from MKTrader:

Don't believe the hype.

1) Look at any basket of commodity prices over the last two years and try to convince yourself of no inflation threat. See here as well:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...-raise-prices-on-terrifying-cotton-costs.html

2) On CPI and other gov't numbers, whose calculations have been politically-manipulated to the point of uselessness, see:

http://www.shadowstats.com/article/consumer_price_index

http://www.harpers.org/archive/2008/05/0082023
More...


So cotton prices have increased. Great. On a related note:

"...apparel printed -0.3% (men's, women's, and infants' clothing fell but shoes gained)..."

It doesn't matter how the number is calculated as long as it is comparable. The question is, is October's CPI numbers comparable to previous CPI numbers?
 
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