This is the reason I'm searching for a backtesting program as mentioned in
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/index-futures-back-testing.370606/
(Mods, feel free to combine these 2 posts if you want)
Here's my story trading S&P500 Futures since the end of August. I was doing really well, usually holding 2 contracts at a time, but sometimes 3. I would make trades just based on the overall market sentiment (always bear during this time), but not hold anything in advance of major news releases, although I would try to "ride the wave" in the immediate aftermath of a major release (CPI, NFP, etc.). There were some losses, and some times when it would go the opposite way for a few days before turning positive.
Overall, I profited about $29,000 in that time. Until...
This recent "bear market rally" (or so I thought at the time), but then I realized that market sentiment had changed. Now I think we're in a bull market. All the negative things forecasted for the future have been priced in. So I lost -$31,000, wiping out all my gains and then some. I've since made back $5,000 doing short-term trades.
I have come up with a new strategy that I think could fit my situation. I'm going to enter trades based on market sentiment direction, and then place a limit that is just 1 point above/below where I enter. This will profit me $50/contract.
At this point, I'm willing to buy 5 contracts at a time (initial margin = $71500, maintenance = $65000). This gets me $250 profit each time I win. So far I have a 100% success rate, and the worst performance took 12 hours to close for a win.
This may seem like I'm just earning pennies, but the reason it can work for me is that if I can iron out the flaws in the plan, I would be willing to invest more. It is not unreasonable that I could put $500,500 in my account, which would allow me to enter into 35 contracts per trade, which would be $1750 profit per successful trade. With 252 trading days per year, that's $441,000 profit per year.
The obvious flaw is that I have nothing in my strategy to tell me when to sell for a loss. Obviously I will lose eventually. But if I place my stop-loss too close, that will eliminate some trades that otherwise would have been wins if I were willing to hold onto them longer. This is what I planned to use the backtester for.
Thoughts?