IncreaseNow's "Sell/Short" Futures Journal

Wow, that was a low-risk entry zone (I assume you had a pretty close initial stop above the high of that spike). So what reason technically did you have for exiting where you did? None. No reason, because the ONLY reason to exit as quickly as you did would be if your stop above that pivot high were taken out.

I sympathize with you, wanting to grab anything that's green, because I too have trouble letting my winners run, but I usually wait for some technical point to be reached before taking profit. On your entry, you'd expect at least a 25% retracement of the move up from the pivot low, I mean even strong trends have pullbacks, so once price pulled a quarter of the way back, move your stop to break even and sit on your hands. Once price pulled back OVER 50% of the move up, just watch carefully. If a move is retraced over 50% it will usually continue in the same direction of the retracement to test the previous S/R level. Which this one did, and broke through hard.

Why did it break down so hard? Because all those longs from that pivot low who thought the downtrend was over are in pain when that pivot low is breached. Their protective stops are hit and the short sellers who want to trade the breakdown have their sell stops triggered for entry and next support, here we come.

Make sense?
 
Quote from increasenow:

no, these are the rules as of right now...so, a successful trade...albeit it small...really liked the entry...heading towards being more defined in my entries
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I can see why you were upset about missing out on the 70 points - it's because there was 'NO way' you were ever going to get them. This is the sort of issue most traders deal with in their first week, if not their first day. You can't expect to short at the very top of a trend and cover at the very bottom to get your desired 75 points, unless it just so happens your trading rules indicate to do so, which is a coincidence not something you can aim for.

In any case it appears that your 'visual rule' for making the trade was along the lines of "gee that's gone up quite a bit, why don't I short it then..." Basically it was just a guess, which is why you exited 2 points later, because you had no idea where the price was going to, so you got out as quick as you could.

Why don't you write down in your Journal, what your rules are for making a trade (no one is going to steal your 'edge' based on a few vague sentences). If your rules are such things as - price has gone up a bit, should short it - that's fine, just write that down here. But there's no point claiming that they're only visual rules and you can't define them, as you must have some thoughts going through your head when you see your visual setup - that's what you write down. You'll get more out of your journal by enabling progress of how you are trading rather than just what you are trading.

Until you have a defined set of trading rules or setups, you just can't progress at all. No point being embarrassed about how inadequate your trading rules are - it's an anonymous forum after all.

- Also, when you comment something like 'great, learning lots', why don;t you specify exactly what you learnt, that way no one ends up repeating the same advice...
 
NoDojis analysis is spot on, as per usual.

Your entry was slick, great set-up. Why you paniced and bailed so quick I do not know. It is good though that you did not chase the market. Its tempting to jump back in, in this case it would have worked out, but often you get run over.

So, that said, how could you re-enter the trade in a logical manner and continue to ride that wave?? The market gave you another chance to enter with a high probability trade.

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This looks like a good instrument to focus on, some meaningful moves and clean price action.
 
Quote from NoDoji:

Wow, that was a low-risk entry zone (I assume you had a pretty close initial stop above the high of that spike). So what reason technically did you have for exiting where you did? None. No reason, because the ONLY reason to exit as quickly as you did would be if your stop above that pivot high were taken out.

I sympathize with you, wanting to grab anything that's green, because I too have trouble letting my winners run, but I usually wait for some technical point to be reached before taking profit. On your entry, you'd expect at least a 25% retracement of the move up from the pivot low, I mean even strong trends have pullbacks, so once price pulled a quarter of the way back, move your stop to break even and sit on your hands. Once price pulled back OVER 50% of the move up, just watch carefully. If a move is retraced over 50% it will usually continue in the same direction of the retracement to test the previous S/R level. Which this one did, and broke through hard.

Why did it break down so hard? Because all those longs from that pivot low who thought the downtrend was over are in pain when that pivot low is breached. Their protective stops are hit and the short sellers who want to trade the breakdown have their sell stops triggered for entry and next support, here we come.

Make sense?
More...
thanks NoDoji...really thanks..I think I am at the 'critical level' of letting my 'rules and technical' trading overcome the 'hating to see the red p&l' rule....it is interesting that you thought it was a 'low risk entry zone'...I took the profit because the retrace did not happen as fast as I thought it would...that led me to think 'what if the ec news was really good and SF was gonna soar beyond my entry point?...with your 25% and50% retrace levels...you talking fibanocci or just pure numbering?
 
Quote from BigFunky:

I can see why you were upset about missing out on the 70 points - it's because there was 'NO way' you were ever going to get them. This is the sort of issue most traders deal with in their first week, if not their first day. You can't expect to short at the very top of a trend and cover at the very bottom to get your desired 75 points, unless it just so happens your trading rules indicate to do so, which is a coincidence not something you can aim for.

In any case it appears that your 'visual rule' for making the trade was along the lines of "gee that's gone up quite a bit, why don't I short it then..." Basically it was just a guess, which is why you exited 2 points later, because you had no idea where the price was going to, so you got out as quick as you could.

Why don't you write down in your Journal, what your rules are for making a trade (no one is going to steal your 'edge' based on a few vague sentences). If your rules are such things as - price has gone up a bit, should short it - that's fine, just write that down here. But there's no point claiming that they're only visual rules and you can't define them, as you must have some thoughts going through your head when you see your visual setup - that's what you write down. You'll get more out of your journal by enabling progress of how you are trading rather than just what you are trading.

Until you have a defined set of trading rules or setups, you just can't progress at all. No point being embarrassed about how inadequate your trading rules are - it's an anonymous forum after all.

- Also, when you comment something like 'great, learning lots', why don;t you specify exactly what you learnt, that way no one ends up repeating the same advice...
More...
thanks Man...yea, had noticed that at ec report times the SF or other currencies tend to spike up or down beyon 'reason'...goood for and immediate retrace entry...what am I learning?...that I can in fact begin to trust my reasonings for my entries...not just random 'jump on in entries'...thanks again
 
Quote from spd:

NoDojis analysis is spot on, as per usual.

Your entry was slick, great set-up. Why you paniced and bailed so quick I do not know. It is good though that you did not chase the market. Its tempting to jump back in, in this case it would have worked out, but often you get run over.

So, that said, how could you re-enter the trade in a logical manner and continue to ride that wave?? The market gave you another chance to enter with a high probability trade.

This looks like a good instrument to focus on, some meaningful moves and clean price action.
More...
lot of good stuff here...helpful...couple things:
1-I bailed quickly because the retrace did not happenas quick as I thought and I was concerned with another huge move up
2-yes, forgot to mention that YES, I normally would had jumped right back in out of frustration and then...got run over for a loss..was trying to be self-controllled and at least get some $$ green going
3-I did not re-enter also because I was concerned with it hitting the 20 EMA and boucing off to another upward move...I guess I need to key in more on if it closes below the 20EMA with force...thanks!
 
Quote from increasenow:

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3-I did not re-enter also because I was concerned with it hitting the 20 EMA and boucing off to another upward move...I guess I need to key in more on if it closes below the 20EMA with force...thanks!
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Thats fine dude, thats a perfectly valid reason to be cautious, just next time look to see if your hypothesis was validated or invalidated, and have a gameplan for your next move once you see the reaction.

In this case price punched through, your hypothesis that price might bouce became void, that should have you looking short. Had it been validated you would have been looking for a long set-up or waiting for a bounce to complete in order to get short again up higher.

One more thing, look at the moves in context of the previous move. Ok, you watched a nice run up retrace and you were worried price might bounce off the 20ema and make aother move higher. What was unique about that retracement? It was coming right off a resistance level that it made several unsuccessful attempts to breach. For me, that would have me leaning to the side that price will most likely continure to move lower, busting through the 20ema would be my confirmation that my hypothesis was validated.

It doesnt matter if price does exactly what you thought it would or not, what does matter is how you trade the reaction.
 
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