IncreaseNow's "Sell/Short" Futures Journal

Quote from increasenow:

thanks Man...yea, had noticed that at ec report times the SF or other currencies tend to spike up or down beyon 'reason'...goood for and immediate retrace entry...what am I learning?...that I can in fact begin to trust my reasonings for my entries...not just random 'jump on in entries'...thanks again
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Well you're going to need to refine your entry criteria a bit better than just 'reasonings', you need rules, particularly if going for 2 pips. As others have pointed out, waiting for confirmation would be better. Also using a 1 min chart rather than 5 min, if you're going for such small movements...
 
Quote from spd:

Thats fine dude, thats a perfectly valid reason to be cautious, just next time look to see if your hypothesis was validated or invalidated, and have a gameplan for your next move once you see the reaction.

In this case price punched through, your hypothesis that price might bouce became void, that should have you looking short. Had it been validated you would have been looking for a long set-up or waiting for a bounce to complete in order to get short again up higher.

One more thing, look at the moves in context of the previous move. Ok, you watched a nice run up retrace and you were worried price might bounce off the 20ema and make aother move higher. What was unique about that retracement? It was coming right off a resistance level that it made several unsuccessful attempts to breach. For me, that would have me leaning to the side that price will most likely continure to move lower, busting through the 20ema would be my confirmation that my hypothesis was validated.

It doesnt matter if price does exactly what you thought it would or not, what does matter is how you trade the reaction.
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spd,

He entered at the upper wick during that 5min candle, so I think the entry was very poor. He had no idea the candle would close like it did. And the candle could have closed up and another loss would have been recorded. The best entry would have been after the candle closed with a tight stop above the wick. Don't you think, spd?
 
Quote from spd:

Thats fine dude, thats a perfectly valid reason to be cautious, just next time look to see if your hypothesis was validated or invalidated, and have a gameplan for your next move once you see the reaction.

In this case price punched through, your hypothesis that price might bouce became void, that should have you looking short. Had it been validated you would have been looking for a long set-up or waiting for a bounce to complete in order to get short again up higher.

One more thing, look at the moves in context of the previous move. Ok, you watched a nice run up retrace and you were worried price might bounce off the 20ema and make aother move higher. What was unique about that retracement? It was coming right off a resistance level that it made several unsuccessful attempts to breach. For me, that would have me leaning to the side that price will most likely continure to move lower, busting through the 20ema would be my confirmation that my hypothesis was validated.

It doesnt matter if price does exactly what you thought it would or not, what does matter is how you trade the reaction.
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thanks spd...I am really starting to get it that all that matters is...price action!!!...this is great stuff thanks...I need to study out that 'pounching through' the 20EMA principle...
 
Quote from Pension_Admin:

Hi increasenow,

I got a question. What is your total commission per trade r/t in percentage of your dollar-at-risk?


PA
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for these CME Globex currencies they are $6.40 r/t...I know some say that is too high...for me, I think it is great especially considering I am really after only 1-2 very highly profitable trades per day...
 
Quote from BigFunky:

Well you're going to need to refine your entry criteria a bit better than just 'reasonings', you need rules, particularly if going for 2 pips. As others have pointed out, waiting for confirmation would be better. Also using a 1 min chart rather than 5 min, if you're going for such small movements...
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I am actually going for 10 to 20 points per trade...would you still consider I use a 1 minute chart or just a 5 minute if going for 10-20 points only, really
 
Quote from Snowman75:

spd,

He entered at the upper wick during that 5min candle, so I think the entry was very poor. He had no idea the candle would close like it did. And the candle could have closed up and another loss would have been recorded. The best entry would have been after the candle closed with a tight stop above the wick. Don't you think, spd?
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If he entered while that was still a big blue candle, then not good. I assumed the entry was after the candle had started retracing and leaving a wick, and stop above the wick.

Incnow, if you thought there might be another big up move, WHY DID YOU SHORT IN THE FIRST PLACE?
 
Quote from NoDoji:

If he entered while that was still a big blue candle, then not good. I assumed the entry was after the candle had started retracing and leaving a wick, and stop above the wick.

Incnow, if you thought there might be another big up move, WHY DID YOU SHORT IN THE FIRST PLACE?
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NoDoji, while I think Incy should confirm, based on the chart posted a few pages ago, the entry is in the upper wick, hence when it was entered into the candle was a big blue/green candle.

Hence, why I didn't like his entry.
 
Quote from NoDoji:

If he entered while that was still a big blue candle, then not good. I assumed the entry was after the candle had started retracing and leaving a wick, and stop above the wick.

Incnow, if you thought there might be another big up move, WHY DID YOU SHORT IN THE FIRST PLACE?
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it was still blue when I entered...why enter then?...have seen that during ec news releases, the abnormal spikes usually have not much validity, so, wanted to ride it down...it went down alright, just not as fast as I thought and I bailed because then I thought was gonna move up...
 
wow...wild day trading today

-9 points on CAD
+12 points on SF
(glad SF has an extra $2.25 per point value more than CAD)...so finished up +$ today, slightly...

Actually more disappointed in the CAD loss than the SF win...'knew' CAD was going to fill the gaps from ec news and...it did...just bailed too quick...
 

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