Who’s talking about economics? The whole world lost their minds...most any export driven economy suffered.
In the Coronavirus Fight in Scandinavia, Sweden Stands Apart
- Thread starter wildchild
- Start date
Wtf. R0 for covid is NOT 4.5. Ridiculous. This was the panic porn estimate from April. It’s nowhere close to that.
Yeah Australia crushed it.
recession and biggest collapse since 1930.
https://globalnews.ca/news/7311333/coronavirus-australia-recession/
Does NZ have an economy? It’s got the same number of people as Chicago. Who cares.
Go read the paper. The global R0 for Covid-19 is 4.5
R0 — known as Rnaught — is the unmitigated infection rate at time zero in a population.
IT IS NOT.
NOT EVEN CLOSE.
There is barely a country with an R0 for covid above 1.5.
Somalia, Cambodia and Isle of Man.
Your panic porn is failing.
https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/global/
I'll try to dumb down this reply and hopefully I don't confuse you in my explanation nor confuse myself...I haven't studied this stuff in +25 years.
There are different types of R0 numbers for each country (effective, outbreak, model, etc). The Covid-19 number of 4.5 is correct for the SIR model but not the number you should be looking at because its based upon a population that has no controls (e.g. no lockdowns, no restrictions) that's typically seen in the early days of an outbreak of the disease in the population or as you refer to it as the unmitigated infection rate at time zero in a population.
- Thinking back to my University days of studies...its a number a country does not want to see again.
Essentially its a model (prediction) number that's typically used as a measuring model against the actual (sometimes referred to as the Effective R0 number). I prefer to view it as one of the key lines drawn in the sand...a line you do not want to cross above it.
Therefore, you want to look at the Effective R0 number but government health officials need both numbers to help decide on health guidelines. For example, some countries have a decreasing Effective R0 number. If they drop below the mean of the Effective R0 number...those countries will remove (decrease) their restrictions.
In contrast, countries with increasing Effective R0 number above their mean...they will tend to use more restrictions or targeted restrictions at specific problem areas such as for example...increasing restrictions in the western part of a country while decreasing restrictions in another part of the same country.
Each country or region of a country have their own Effective R0 number which is why, for example, one state in the U.S. may have restrictions / mandates but another state in the U.S. has less restrictions / no mandates...primary reason why the United States tries to avoid using National Mandates and leaves it up to each state to decide if they should use, for example, face mask wearing mandates.
It really gets complicated when different states shares borders and each state has different restrictions / mandates because people are very social assholes and will simply cross the border (drive or fly) to do whatever the hell they want to do.
That's why airlines and border crossings are targets for lockdowns / restrictions...an easy way and very fast way to control the spread of infection from human to human.
Sweden
I believe has a current Effective R0 number near 1.1 (see bottom of the below 3 graphs) and the Swedish Health Officials are very concerned because their R0 numbers have recently been increasing and their prediction model shows further increases.
It's one of the reasons why they are trying to get "ahead" of the worsening (increasing) Covid-19 problem in their country via using more restrictions.
The health policy for most countries is the resolve the current threat and then worry later about the damage that may result from controlling the current threat...most countries do recover.
In contrast, we see a lot of people talk about damage to the economy, damage from mental illness, increasing marital breakups, damage to children education. These are people that do not understand the current contagious disease threat and do not understand not fixing the current threat...those things mentioned above will be much worst.
Québec
Here where I'm located...we have an Effective R0 number of 0.83 that's currently decreasing....reason why some restrictions have been lifted such as the public is allowed to use indoor swimming facilities, fitness centers and such but with limited capacity.
We're currently targeting the travel industry via making incomers mandatory quarantine at specific designated hotels nears airports and key border crossings...a mandatory 3 day stay at the expense of the traveler and they must show proof of a hotel reservation prior to departure from the other country / province.
Currently, the average 3 day stay in a quarantine hotel is around $2,000 dollars upon arrival into Canada.
United States
You can use the link @ https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/united-states/ to see the individual states Effective R0 numbers to understand why states have different restrictions / mandates or none at all.
Many states Universities and public health agency has those numbers in real-time that's typically sent to governors, mayors of major cities and the CDC.
wrbtrader
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No, you look. I posted a tweet. I had no additional commentary of my own, so don't tell me what I tried to claim. I didn't try to claim anything. The tweet contained a chart that I found very interesting. It was YOU who reacted so poorly to it. I view that chart, and the one you posted as two very relevant data points that need to be examined before claiming an overall narrative that "lockdowns work" unequivocally. See, you're just fine when someone makes a half-assed comment that follows a narrative you believe in intrinsically. This is why we don't see any criticisms from you concerning commentary - no matter how sketchy - that supports your belief system.
I'd refer you to the scientific method that asks for skepticism in all "evidence" until thoroughly proven without a doubt. You people seem to take umbrage with this.
Don't put words in my mouth. Don't tell me what I am saying. Additionally, don't discount evidence in a chart as "irrelevant" or "useless", but instead say "that's interesting - there must be reasons as to why Sweden and the UK have similar COVID data considering their lockdown strategies are so vastly different." And then hypothesize on that reasoning (like you did at the end of your post regarding Asia). That would be a discussion worth having.
As for your opinion on countries in Asia, I believe that you are on to something as Asians are far more compliant. But they also have far more congested urban environments working against them. And there's like, a hundred other main variables to consider when putting them up against Sweden or any other country.
Just remember, this started because you made a snarky comment about a graph I posted without any personal commentary.
Do you understand the difference between R0 (known as Rnaught) which is the infection rate at time zero without mitigation and R which is the effective infection rate at a point in time beyond zero with mitigation.
Learn the difference and stop spewing nonsense.
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You posted a chart with bad information to further a narrative and I called it out for the sake of accuracy. I do this often. I understand it’s offensive but I think the greater good is accuracy. So, your feathers are ruffled. You’ll get over it and the conversation is now better for it.
And yes, I agree that country comparisons are interesting as I said here.
This post is full of great information!