He didn't, just more disinformation. There are trolls that keep pushing that narrative.
I'm looking for an edge - I can share a percentage of my profits
- Thread starter trader30
- Start date
He didn't, just more disinformation. There are trolls that keep pushing that narrative.
Hello Millionaire,
What's popping my buddy?
What I highlighted in orange solves every problem regarding trading. What that in orange, who cares how often the systems loses. Well, I care, but you get my point.
Personally if i could get 100 good signals a month and so have 95% winning months. Trading would be a lot easier.
There would be less emotional suffering along the way!
Sadly i am no where near 95% winning months, more like 66% winning months.
What 66% winning months means is i can sometimes have 4 or 5 losing months in a row. You might say, who cares as long as you make money in the end, but living through 4 or 5 losing months in a row is never pleasant.
Obviously better to win 90% of months and rarely if ever have more than 2 losing months in a row.
The Rentec Medallion fund has almost 90% winning months, and a sharpe ratio of almost 3. Way above most other funds..
Actually, the answer is MAYBE. Once you have a rule-based system, you will have several, dozens. Then the question becomes which ones to run, for how long, with which parameters, and why. You do not have infinite capital nor infinite computing time.
So in this sense you are pushing the problem up the ladder. This article touches on the concept.
https://towardsdatascience.com/bayesian-optimization-in-trading-77202ffed530. For those who are less schooled, one can think about Baysian system as a reduction of the problem into "find the optimal real number between 0 and 1. But of course there are MORE than an infinite number of possibilities, i.e aleph-nought.
Your edge will come from these sentences:
- Technical Analysis books will only serve you to lift monitors or as door stoppers. The thicker the better.
- Study Game Theory
- Study Money Management in Trading
- Study Risk Management in Trading
- Learn one of these programming languages: c++, c# or Java
Let me know when you are ready to send me that percentage and I will knock your door to collect it.
- Technical Analysis books will only serve you to lift monitors or as door stoppers. The thicker the better.
- Study Game Theory
- Study Money Management in Trading
- Study Risk Management in Trading
- Learn one of these programming languages: c++, c# or Java
Let me know when you are ready to send me that percentage and I will knock your door to collect it.
Hello Millionaire,
I agree with you.
From all my simple algo testing, having a win rate of +50% over the past X-XX years is very challenging. I do not want to sound negative, or start no arguments today, but not sure alot of humans can do this long term winning +50% year to year. A trading system can, not sure alot of humans.
50%+ win rate on what time scale?
Do you mean on individual trades.
Or monthly or yearly.
The preparation is not easy.
QUOTE="trader30, post: 5659469, member: 534500"]I can't make an offer without knowing anything about you or your trading.[/QUOTE]
Your curiosity to know something about me and my trading is certainly understandable.
As is my curiosity about you and your requirements.
Please see my post below to get a thumbnail sketch for starters.
Then please post a brief response to the following curiosities of mine:
-How much time per week are you prepared to commit to this project?
-How do you feel about Price Action Trading?
-How do you feel about Technical Analysis?
-What timeframe charts do you want to trade?
Trader 30, Read all the advice in this very thread intended to cope with Artistic Intuitive trading. Ask if you want, "Are any written rules based traders posting to this thread." You will prolly get crickets and doubting thomases, but count how many say Yes, me.
I operate a rules based system now.
It is the only way I have ever intraday traded.
The thinking goes into the benchmarking of each setup/trigger that goes into the tool box.
Once in there, it is not guesswork, it is execution of the steps.
The mental gymnastics required of Artistic Intuitive trading mos def deserves a hat tip to those who make it work for them. That method does not speak to me, does not resonate with me.
What you say is generally true in that until recently upon some protracted probing, did I realize how few written rules based traders there actually are.
What you say applies in spades to the Artists among us.
Price Action baby.
Simple is Beautiful
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And this is in fact the problem. The new trader will absolutely let his imagination run wild and every trade will be different. Some will have a tight stop, others will use a bigger stop. Some trades will be with trend, other will be counter-trend. Then perhaps a scaling-in strategy will allow for an exit without a loss, and other times this will magnify the loss. So if anything, the new trader first needs rigid consistency before he can branch out with doing fancy things. For every trade that he takes where a fancy exit strategy keeps him in the game longer and leads to a bigger profit, there will also be a trade where that exit strategy causes him to lose a nice profit.
Now I'm of course not saying that trading doesn't require all these different strategies, but if at first someone says trading is easy because you just have to keep your profits bigger than your stops, fine, but then introduces a lot of other variables for how the true wealth is created via all these fancy exit strategies, it kind of almost negates the first point.
I understand what you are saying, but the new trader must use his imagination and make a plan. The order is first to create objectives, investigate their own beliefs about the market, have a big picture registration, use systems that are developed according in what kind of trading environment we are right now and use a low risk idea, make some hard entry and exit rules, use money management to meet the objectives and then also, as last, control their thoughts and emotions. But the basic is this outcome: cut your losers and let your winners run.