I'm looking for an edge - I can share a percentage of my profits

[SimpleMeLike]

50%+ win rate on what time scale?
Do you mean on individual trades.
Or monthly or yearly.

Hello Millionare,

I am taking about a back test results of years and years of data. for example, back test trading idea X the past 15 years on 30 minute timeframe, I have not seen anything with win rate higher than about 50% that looks good enought to put money on

 

[Millionaire]

Hello Millionare,

I am taking about a back test results of years and years of data. for example, back test trading idea X the past 15 years on 30 minute timeframe, I have not seen anything with win rate higher than about 50% that looks good enough to put money on

High win rate with less than 1:1 risk reward is easy to get.
But high win rate with a risk reward of 1:1 or above is hard.
Instead the market gives us low win rates with occasional big winners.

If high win rate with even 1:1 was possible then trading would be quite easy.
eg. 65% win rate and 1:1, is holy grail level, assuming you get enough signals and can scale up to a decent size, you would be rich in no time..

 

[NoahA]

I understand what you are saying, but the new trader must use his imagination and make a plan. The order is first to create objectives, investigate their own beliefs about the market, have a big picture registration, use systems that are developed according in what kind of trading environment we are right now and use a low risk idea, make some hard entry and exit rules, use money management to meet the objectives and then also, as last, control their thoughts and emotions. But the basic is this outcome: cut your losers and let your winners run.

Thanks for this reply and your understanding. It is almost ironic how essentially everything you need to do can be distilled into a simple statement, like cutting your losers and letting the winners run, but figuring out all the parameters to get there is really quite involved.

Its like a hash function in the crypto world. Its very easy to take a bunch of data, hash it, and get the result. But going in the opposite direction, to figure out the original value from the result, even if you know how the hash function works, is only possible with immense computer power and brute force by testing every single possible combination.

 

[MacBookProHo]

risk reward of 1:1 or above with a high win rate over the long run is very hard.

the market gives us low win rates with occasional big winners.

you would be rich in no time..

You can't blame the market for giving low win rates, or occasional big winners -- or whatever else in between.
It's fully up to the trader to understand, realize, observe and exploit what's happening and mixing in the market.

Getting rich in the market, in no time, is very possible....it's all there for the taking.
But very, very, few people see what's right in front of them. They should wipe the canvas slate fully clean, and remove all the old paints that they have learned and absorbed elsewhere that's clouding their limited, biased, judgement and perspective and approach.

No one in the market has been touched by God. Riches are all there for the Taking, by anyone,
It just needs to be learned, grasped and absorbed by the right soul,

 

[schizo]

Thanks for this reply and your understanding. It is almost ironic how essentially everything you need to do can be distilled into a simple statement, like cutting your losers and letting the winners run, but figuring out all the parameters to get there is really quite involved.

So the important question ain't how much did you make or lose, but what did you do to make or lose all that. And this, of course, can only come with many years of experience. Not exactly something that can be neatly disseminated by books or mentors.

 

[Millionaire]

Getting rich in the market, in no time, is very possible....it's all there for the taking.

Get rich quick in the markets very rarely possible but you remember 0.01% who did it and forget the 99.99% who failed.
But getting rich slow, the odds are a fair bit better.

 

[DevBru]

Just my 2 cents:

High risk:reward is easier to achieve with swing trading, the shorter the time frame, the harder it is to get these very high risk:rewards trades.

The shorter the time frame the more trades you take, so then you should be fine with a lower risk:reward as long as you have a +50% win rate.

I am a day trader in ES and getting 1:50 or 1:200 risk:reward as a day trader in ES is nearly if not completely impossible.

So it all depends on the time frame and the markets you are trading. There isn't a 1 way for all.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

High win rate with less than 1:1 risk reward is easy to get.
But high win rate with a risk reward of 1:1 or above is hard.
Instead the market gives us low win rates with occasional big winners.

If high win rate with even 1:1 was possible then trading would be quite easy.
eg. 65% win rate and 1:1, is holy grail level, assuming you get enough signals and can scale up to a decent size, you would be rich in no time..

Hello Millionaire,

I can tell you be grinding it out buddy and you studied the math well. Man, you are so right on what you said above. that 1:1 with +60% win rate is the holy grail level.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

High win rate with less than 1:1 risk reward is easy to get.

Hello Millionaire,

Easy to get consistently, hard to swim out of drawdown from it. LOL HAHHHAA

 

[easymon1]

You can't blame the market for giving low win rates, or occasional big winners -- or whatever else in between.
It's fully up to the trader to understand, realize, observe and exploit what's happening and mixing in the market.