I'm looking for an edge - I can share a percentage of my profits

[deaddog]

Everyone says "cut your losers short and let your winners run", but I have a question. Can your brain do this 250 trading days a year for the next 30 years?

Thank you

Hey SML;
I'd ask why not. It's what I've been doing for the last 20 years.

 

[SimpleMeLike]

Hey SML;
I'd ask why not. It's what I've been doing for the last 20 years.

Hello deaddog,

Congratulations to your sir. Awesome. It is worth the try.

Glad to see you been doing it for 20 years.

 

[MacBookProHo]

Everyone says "cut your losers short and let your winners run", but I have a question

Can your brain do this 250 trading days a year

Well, that's the Holy Grail....generally knowing the future.
You can't let your winners run, and losers cut short, if you haven't established a reasonably accurate hypothesis of the future.

So many traders, and automated traders, are trying to just set their parameters blindly at 2:1....and let the machine do its thing. If only trading like that were so easy, instant and an automatic road to riches. But the real world is slightly more complicated than a basic formula, Picasso and Einstein.

A trader doing that...is similar to a mouse or insect trying to gain control and escape from a flushed toilet. They are helpless to the variables and conditions and storms they are in in the market.
At best, by the end of the year....they are break even, or slightly, marginally, only profitable. I would hardly call that an E, T
20,22

 

[danielc1]

That are a lot of reactions... do not know where to begin here. Also it is off topic

Good Morning danielc1,

Great discussion. Can you please answer my question in red?

Thank you for the response.

In my opinion, I think 'would be' traders do not understand good trading has nothing to do with predictions, or being right. It is all probability, money management and how you think, feel, belief in what you are doing.

Yes, a human can withstand a 70% losing rate. But he can only do this if he really, really understand how it works and that the outcome will be in his favor.
To get to that point, you need to know the inside out of your trading system and have a rock discipline in his mind. It is that what can take a very long time...

 

[danielc1]

Although your post is excellent, and I don't mean to argue with it, there is I believe a fallacy that stands out. If you are meant to take profits on trades so that you at least hit a win 20% of the time, how are you going to capture that outlier which would give a 50:1 or 200:1 payout? Sure you can keep moving up a "take profit target" that is never hit as the market goes parabolic, but more often than not, the market will hardly ever move in a straight line and that profit you did have, vanishes.

Here is my example. Say you risk $100 to make $1000, and you have your 20% win rate. You're hoping that at least 1 out of 5 times you hit your $1000 win because all the other times you're losing $100. And here comes your $1000 win but you don't take it because you're hoping for that 50:1 fat tail. Maybe it rallies up to $1100 and then $1200, but then comes back down. It drops below $1000, and goes all the way back to your entry. Maybe you use a trailing stop so you still get your $1000, but there are also other times where you don't initially take the $1000 win, and there is no chance to lock it in. Then it drops to $900, and you're waiting for $1000 again, and it never climbs back up.

If you take the profit at only $500 now, you're now messing with the stats, but missing 1 win of $1000 and getting nothing for it is certainly a huge blow since you're only supposed to get about 20% wins anyway, and you just blew one.

So I think its difficult to have a low win rate and need those wins, but at the same time say to skip taking the win in order to go for the lottery ticket.

It is not a belief fallacy. All what you are talking about is about how you create your exit rules. I can give plenty examples of how you can create different exit rules. A few: trailing stop from the beginning, trailing after a target is reached, trailing tighter after X r return. Starting with a very tight stop and losing your stop after X move in your favor so you can get the bigger move, but still have the tighten stop, so your R is very small, scaling out a portion at different targets, and so on. And you can make also combinations, in short you imagination is the limit.

 

[Millionaire]

Everyone says "cut your losers short and let your winners run", but I have a question. Can your brain do this 250 trading days a year for the next 30 years?

To last 30 years you cant get bogged down on individual trades. Losing 60% of the time can be depressing, so you have to look at the bigger picture.

Let's say you have a system that only wins 40% of the time with 2:1 RR on individual trades.
The same system on the monthly time scale, the monthly win rate can be well above 50%.

Depends how many signals you get.
The more of those 40% win rate 2:1 RR trades you can get each month the better.

Say you get 10 signals every month, your monthly win rate might be around 60%.
If you can get 100 signals then your monthly win rate might be over 90%.
If you can get 300 signals a month you might never have a losing month.

That makes the 60% losing trades a little easier to handle. Knowing your monthly win rate will be well above 50%, just as long as you execute properly.

 

[danielc1]

What you said is not going to work.

"cut your losers and let your winners run."
It is the same as someone says" trading is simple, buy low and sell high".
Only layman thinks it is simple.

You just made the definition of what trading is.. buying low, selling high or a variation can be: buy high and sell higher. Never said it is easy, but it is that simple. The same as you cut your losers to protect your capital and you let your profits run to grow your capital. It is not rocked science.

 

[comingkingofisrael]

I post many winners live.
I am not interested in mentoring

Demand anyone who claims to have edge, to prove it live , with real time exits and entries. over an extended period.

This will eliminate 99.99999% of all applicants

I told folks that the con man Ryan Cohen would announce he has sold all his BBBY garbage after the close today. Stock was destroyed. ootm Puts will be paying off at over 20-1 overnight

This advice was worth millions , and I posted it for free.

The only one here who ever came close was Jack Hershey and he died broke

How do you know Hershey died broke?

 

[easymon1]

Can your brain do this 250 trading days a year for the next 30 years?

For rules based traders, the answer to your question is Yes, 200 trading days a year.

 

[SunTrader]

Many, I include myself in that group, start with a loose stop and tighten based on PA and trading plan particulars.

We also like to sell high, buy low. Both ways (long and short) work ya know.