You guys got some balls.
Credit crisis is nowhere close to over...
Credit crisis is nowhere close to over...
I'm going long here
- Thread starter Cutten
- Start date
I know what you mean by that comment as a generalisation but balls and trading ought not to go together.
I don't consider this a crash, althought the puppet TV has done its utmost to brainwash people into fearful reactions.
The crash is yet to come and you correctly preceive the ticking bomb, but I think the smart money has set this up nicely to transfer the wealth yet again.
A tight stop trade on a proven trendline isn't balls, it's a no brainer.
I waited 2 years to short oil.. then put friends and family into straddles and strangles (OIH) when oil was in upper 120s looking for oil to be in 80-90s by late summer... was still holding long puts until I took some off table today.. and rolled out and down in 1/4 amount... but added calls again!
Morale of story for me is you can make 2-5 trades all year and come out better than trading every day (like I used to do when I did this full-time back in 2006)
You're right about the technical pullback on the channel line.
And continual Government props and uncertainty should provide a nice short term bounce.
Marc Faber says the total cost of the bailout will reach 5 TRILLION.
Whatever asset "deflation" (Return to mean) we have now, will see a nice rally once that liquidity hits the books.
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Found this on TSCM, pretty interesting analysis of the 1974 bottom and corresponding news flow. Markets tend to bottom before 'good news', not after the fact.
A. June: New car sales drop 24%.
B. August: More Watergate disclosures, heavy selling.
C. August: President Nixon resigns.
D. October: Franklin National Bank collapses in biggest bank failure in U.S. history.
E. October: Public pulls in horns as U.S. begins to slide into the worst recession since the 1930s.
F. December: New car sales down 34%, housing starts at eight-year low.
A. June: New car sales drop 24%.
B. August: More Watergate disclosures, heavy selling.
C. August: President Nixon resigns.
D. October: Franklin National Bank collapses in biggest bank failure in U.S. history.
E. October: Public pulls in horns as U.S. begins to slide into the worst recession since the 1930s.
F. December: New car sales down 34%, housing starts at eight-year low.
For some strange reason ET won't let me start a thread with this.
Anyway, here's the real crash coming...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9-tBGxVU6o
Anyway, here's the real crash coming...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9-tBGxVU6o
Cutten, i agree. Happy to be buying here and selling puts at ridiculous prices. We might go down another 20%. Who cares? It's time to buy. And we will get a bounce, regardless of whether we go lower or not, and when we do i'll decide then whether to sell into it. I haven't seen this much opportunity in a long time. It may take ten or twenty years for the economy to recover, who knows? I'm buying.
Quote from makloda:
Found this on TSCM, pretty interesting analysis of the 1974 bottom and corresponding news flow. Markets tend to bottom before 'good news', not after the fact.
A. June: New car sales drop 24%.
B. August: More Watergate disclosures, heavy selling.
C. August: President Nixon resigns.
D. October: Franklin National Bank collapses in biggest bank failure in U.S. history.
E. October: Public pulls in horns as U.S. begins to slide into the worst recession since the 1930s.
F. December: New car sales down 34%, housing starts at eight-year low.
Thats all well and good but how does one propose to catch the falling knife?
What metric do we use to anticipate the curtailment of bad news?