I'm going long here

sprstpd · Oct 6, 2008

Quote from ByLoSellHi:

Cramer almost compels me to reverse that position, as he did scream the markets are dead, but there really is way too much fundamental damage on the supply/demand side.

The thing is you have to think that Cramer will tell people to buy if we have a huge rally. And that is when you really need to go short. Maybe it is too cute, but I am sensing an anti-Cramer rally here. No position though.

dsq · Oct 6, 2008

Quote from Cutten:

To me this looks like a great buying opportunity. I'm 80% long and will be 100% long by the end of tomorrow. I also think we could see a short-term rally tomorrow/wednesday, so I'll step up to 150-200% long intraday if I get a nice signal for a rally. But going 75%+ long here as a position trade/investment looks really sound.

Nows exactly the time to throw caution to the wind...thats right load up 100% because you are bound to be 100% right and you will pick the very bottom of the bottom...etc...This sounds very imprudent.Breaking all the rules of investing.But i guess you gotta bet the house.Good luck,you might be right or wrong.
What about just being long 10-20%?

mokwit · Oct 6, 2008

Quote from ByLoSellHi:

I do understand there's a lot of cash sidelined, too. I just think people aren't going to be in a rush to invest it in anything looking remotely like this moonscape.

Never understimate he stupidity of the idiot fund manager playing with other peoples money against a relative benchmark. These guys love a "bargain" - just ask Bill Miller.

MandelbrotSet · Oct 6, 2008

Quote from mokwit:

Never understimate he stupidity of the idiot fund manager playing with other peoples money against a relative benchmark. These guys love a "bargain" - just ask Bill Miller.

Part of it is that they have to chase performance or else they're going to get the boot.

But that's only part of it ...

iceman1 · Oct 6, 2008

One thing for sure... this is a traders market... but only for the best and nimblest... with iron-clad discipline!

So that's about 20-25 guys on ET.

mokwit · Oct 6, 2008

Quote from MandelbrotSet:

Part of it is that they have to chase performance or else they're going to get the boot.

But that's only part of it ...

I agree, that is part of what's driving them - the other part is that they are clueless - just think back to some of their comments on Bloomberg etc - not all of them were saying these things to halt redemptions.

ByLoSellHi · Oct 7, 2008

I say this with the greatest of reservation, because it forces me to admit I may have been a wandering lamb, mere moments away from a brutal slaughter - but buy and hold may finally be blasphemous, as many of you have been suggesting.

Maybe Buffet and Miller are dead.

Mvic · Oct 7, 2008

Quote from iceman1:

One thing for sure... this is a traders market... but only for the best and nimblest... with iron-clad discipline!

So that's about 20-25 guys on ET.

True, visibility beyond a few hours is not there. There are many indications that this is a bottom of some kind Vix hitting 67, spread between cash vix and futures, Monthly RS low, SPX hitting multi decade uptrend line at low today, what looked like capitulation today down 800 but it really is different this time due to the leverage involved and the potential to overshoot on the down side is very real. I went long the NQ again today hoping for a repeat of last Monday's low followed by the Tuseday turn around and the potential for getting an emergency rate cut (though since we didn't get it today I am not so sure about that) but not looking for a long term trade, will give it room and if we never look back great but not taking any huge positions here, there will be plenty of time for that once the dust settles given the wealth destruction that has taken place.

blackjack007 · Oct 7, 2008

Quote from scriabinop23:

I'm now 100% long right now too.. I bought EWT (taiwan), RSX (russia ETF), some S&P, and VLO in today's bottom. Have no more ammo left...

Damn I need to make some more money so I can buy more at these discount prices.

In 2 years, my account should do very well.

it's too early to be 100% long equities. you should dollar-cost average into your positions.

trackstar · Oct 7, 2008

Quote from Mvic:

True, visibility beyond a few hours is not there. There are many indications that this is a bottom of some kind Vix hitting 67, spread between cash vix and futures, Monthly RS low, SPX hitting multi decade uptrend line at low today, what looked like capitulation today down 800 but it really is different this time due to the leverage involved and the potential to overshoot on the down side is very real. I went long the NQ again today hoping for a repeat of last Monday's low followed by the Tuseday turn around and the potential for getting an emergency rate cut (though since we didn't get it today I am not so sure about that) but not looking for a long term trade, will give it room and if we never look back great but not taking any huge positions here, there will be plenty of time for that once the dust settles given the wealth destruction that has taken place.

Exactly. I went long spy Nov spy calls. Just a small bite, but I think it does have potential to be quite a chunk.