I'm getting whipsawed, and I need advice/opinion

[ironchef]

Big picture I haven't seen volatility like this in years and am excited about it, though worried about virus.... eg potentially alot of money to be made, if we survive

You should not over react. You are a young man your fatality rate is < .2%. If you don't have any underlying health issues, it is <.02%, about the same as flu.

My question for you if you are willing to comment is:

Hedging a black swan with say long put is very expensive. I did that in the past and invariably it didn't pay, cut deeply into returns with the hedge. I essentially abandoned the hedge last year and then it hit.

So how do you hedge a coronavirus?

Thanks.

 

[ironchef]

This market is not a good place for noobs or boobs

How do we noobs get out before the music stops?

 

[RRY16]

Interesting story: I went to my bank this week and asked for a loan for speculation. The loan officer told me that one of the things they look it is how well one traded during the mortgage crisis. It's a good indication of a trader's mettle in tough times. Traders today will be judged for years to come on how they traded during the Corona crisis.

Lol, not an interesting story cause it’s B.S. Stop the insanity!

 

[newwurldmn]

So how do you hedge a coronavirus?

Thanks.

Short pandemic bonds?

 

[tiddlywinks]

Risk management should always come before profit potential.

Big difference between risk aversion and risk management.

Logically the same as asking why not just randomly double or triple your average trading size during normal markets and see what happens?

You are confusing increasing size with double or triple or infinite size! And if you have solid methods and expectancy, why would an incremental increase in sizing need to be "random"? So yes, there is an appropriate time to trade say 12 or 15 micros instead of 1 mini, and to "see what happens". A reminder, the main subject in my post is about decreasing size due to volatility.

I am not remotely suggesting to take on more risk than you are comfortable with. I am saying volatility works identically on both the risk, and the reward. If you've determined something like a 1/6 size position can generate your "normal" take, why wouldn't you take advantage and reduce size by ONLY 1/4, 1/3, or even 1/2? Why do you need to reduce to 1/6?

Also, based on price movement, you don't need to trade as large to produce the same returns.

Some people strive for "sameness". Others thrive on growth and learning and sometimes overcoming fears.

 

[JesseJamesFinn1]

It feels like 2001 and 2008-2009 all over because of the fear. In scenarios like this you go back to trading only stocks you know well with tons of liquidity and take gains/losses quicker because these computers will whip you faster than any human panic can. There is so little liquidity thanks to Funds having no risk. The NYSE Specialist use to have balls to take on size, now that's gone for now.

 

[ironchef]

Short pandemic bonds?

I would buy GILD and RHHBY??? Not a prediction.

 

[NewTraderAdventure]

How do we noobs get out before the music stops?

you would subscribe to my $1000 a week advisory

 

[bone]

There’s no shame with sitting on your hands. Truly.

It's been a humbling week for me. I'm getting whipsawed, and I'd really appreciate your opinion on how I can improve, and what I need to work on.

I feel like my analyses are correct, but my timing is wrong? What weakness do you see in me and my trading that I should address? <3 Keith

A few examples from this week:

- I went short on UAL, DAL, and AAL. The next day, they had a good day, and swung up. I got out, took the loss... and then T announced the travel ban. They plunged at market open... and I lost out on a big hit.

- I went long on MSFT, thinking that Uncle Sam would provide a stimulus and form a floor--especially for a heavily-weighted DJIA company like this. It drifted down... I got out, and took the loss. Next day, stimulus package announcement, and it bounces.

- My instincts were screaming to short DIS at 140, thinking that they would be forced to close parks, but I refrained, thinking that T would step in and bail them out... you can see what happened.

I think what frustrates me the most is that this is the kind of market that I love to trade.. I should be killing it with shorts, like the Plungers of old.

 

[VixTraderdf]

TIL that banks give out personal loans for speculation, post-2008.

they dont.