I'm getting whipsawed, and I need advice/opinion

kmiklas

kmiklas

It's been a humbling week for me. I'm getting whipsawed, and I'd really appreciate your opinion on how I can improve, and what I need to work on.

I feel like my analyses are correct, but my timing is wrong? What weakness do you see in me and my trading that I should address? <3 Keith

A few examples from this week:

- I went short on UAL, DAL, and AAL. The next day, they had a good day, and swung up. I got out, took the loss... and then T announced the travel ban. They plunged at market open... and I lost out on a big hit.

- I went long on MSFT, thinking that Uncle Sam would provide a stimulus and form a floor--especially for a heavily-weighted DJIA company like this. It drifted down... I got out, and took the loss. Next day, stimulus package announcement, and it bounces.

- My instincts were screaming to short DIS at 140, thinking that they would be forced to close parks, but I refrained, thinking that T would step in and bail them out... you can see what happened.

I think what frustrates me the most is that this is the kind of market that I love to trade.. I should be killing it with shorts, like the Plungers of old.
 
Take a broader view. For example, if you think we will see lower prices before higher prices, go short if you can take some heat on the upside or scale in. I went long at the close yesterday knowing I could take some heat on the downside, expecting a bounce in the near future.
 
kmiklas said:
It's been a humbling week for me. I'm getting whipsawed, and I'd really appreciate your opinion on how I can improve, and what I need to work on.

I feel like my analyses are correct, but my timing is wrong? What weakness do you see in me and my trading that I should address? <3 Keith

A few examples from this week:

- I went short on UAL, DAL, and AAL. The next day, they had a good day, and swung up. I got out, took the loss... and then T announced the travel ban. They plunged at market open... and I lost out on a big hit.

- I went long on MSFT, thinking that Uncle Sam would provide a stimulus and form a floor--especially for a heavily-weighted DJIA company like this. It drifted down... I got out, and took the loss. Next day, stimulus package announcement, and it bounces.

- My instincts were screaming to short DIS at 140, thinking that they would be forced to close parks, but I refrained, thinking that T would step in and bail them out... you can see what happened.

I think what frustrates me the most is that this is the kind of market that I love to trade.. I should be killing it with shorts, like the Plungers of old.
More...



I see you used some key words "instincts" "think". You have to trade what you know first off, not what you think.

Secondly you're applying fundamental analysis and or news for what seems to be pretty short trades. It's very difficult to go long or short a stock in anticipation of news (because as you see even if you're right you can still be forced out whether that be mentally or actually due to losses). Even if you anticipate the news, sometimes the reaction can be the opposite anyways. In my experience this is not a long term path to success or consistency.


Next, it helps to understand what is going on. Meaning big money(whatever that means) are they dropping the market to accumulate or are they pumping the market to sell into any liquidity they can find. Nothing I have as far as indiciator's (from the most simple to more advanced) , watching price action, fundamentals or news tells me there's accumulation going on. So, I have been trading more short's than longs. If I do take a long I make sure it's an "A+" setup one that meets every single criteria I have.

Get some kind of indicator that you know and understand very well. NOT what someone else teaches you or shows you. You PERSONALLY need to understand, know and therefore BELIEVE it works.

EDIT: Just to be clear I trade 99.9% intra-day, so that is more to what I am speaking of. I do not make serious calls like "we will see x price in weeks months or years that is useless). I did state in another thread I am more short bias until S&P 2200-2300. But again I am not perma short, nor will I all in or not change my view if for some reason something drastically changes.

Also if we get a big rally, a lot of times you'll get a pullback to re-enter. Sure, it isn't a guarantee but I am not trying to pick the bottom. I would need to see some improvement in momentum before I was serious about being super bullish again. Sure, it's possible it rallies out of no where and keeps going up, but again I trade intra-day. So doesn't overly concern me to miss it, particularly when I personally don't have any type of probability that these are the long term lows.
 
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kmiklas said:
It's been a humbling week for me. I'm getting whipsawed, and I'd really appreciate your opinion on how I can improve, and what I need to work on.

I feel like my analyses are correct, but my timing is wrong? What weakness do you see in me and my trading that I should address? <3 Keith

A few examples from this week:

- I went short on UAL, DAL, and AAL. The next day, they had a good day, and swung up. I got out, took the loss... and then T announced the travel ban. They plunged at market open... and I lost out on a big hit.

- I went long on MSFT, thinking that Uncle Sam would provide a stimulus and form a floor--especially for a heavily-weighted DJIA company like this. It drifted down... I got out, and took the loss. Next day, stimulus package announcement, and it bounces.

- My instincts were screaming to short DIS at 140, thinking that they would be forced to close parks, but I refrained, thinking that T would step in and bail them out... you can see what happened.

I think what frustrates me the most is that this is the kind of market that I love to trade.. I should be killing it with shorts, like the Plungers of old.
More...
My observations of who are successful on ET is that instead of guessing whether the market is going up or down, just bet one direction:

Perma bulls like @dozu888 said he was printing money betting long QQQ.

Perma bears like @S2007S said he was printing money betting against QQQ.

They are both right, so as a pro you just have to pick one side and stick with it. As an amateur retail I follow the perma bull (since 2010 :cool:)and of course I got crashed the last two weeks. :banghead: Fortunately the year is still young and I may get lucky again.

Good luck.
 
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