I'm getting whipsawed, and I need advice/opinion

[Turveyd]

Trade what you SEE!!!

So in and out more, leaving trades open leaves you open to said whipsaws, market is too fast and crazy, got to see XXXX is going up, go long and exit when it's no longer going up, don't make it any more complicated.

 

[dozu888]

the problem with the internet is when you ask for trading advice all them losers who can't even beat the index come in with their 2 pennies....

it's obvious for a veteran to see who is just putting in BS, but too bad for the ones asking for advice they can't tell...

but that's just fact of life.

 

[zoned_post_meridiem]

PS: As I review this week and after following it last week live too, I can't help but note that the market is still trading fairly technically. It's just that the counter-moves and general oscillation of the market is so huge that the only way to participate is with wide stops. And without decreased size, that means huge risk and a potential blowup.

Exactly. I trade some instruments with tight stop losses, and others with much wider risk management. The former clearly underperformed this week, because winners that could have been managed in normal conditions were taken out within seconds.

 

[KCalhoun]

Exactly. I trade some instruments with tight stop losses, and others with much wider risk management. The former clearly underperformed this week, because winners that could have been managed in normal conditions were taken out within seconds.

Exactly-- it's smart to use a hybrid approach testing both wide stops small size and tight stops larger size.

What I've been doing is setups like gap breakouts, trailing stops on half position (many shook out last week like UVXY yesterday) and lod stops on remaining shares.

It's very much a hit and miss market, so the strategy as always is lots of entries with scaling and tight stops... see my journal here for recent live examples.

Thrilling but exhausting time to trade, volatile and fun like nightclub hotties

 

[RRY16]

It's been a humbling week for me. I'm getting whipsawed, and I'd really appreciate your opinion on how I can improve, and what I need to work on.

I feel like my analyses are correct, but my timing is wrong? What weakness do you see in me and my trading that I should address? <3 Keith

A few examples from this week:

- I went short on UAL, DAL, and AAL. The next day, they had a good day, and swung up. I got out, took the loss... and then T announced the travel ban. They plunged at market open... and I lost out on a big hit.

- I went long on MSFT, thinking that Uncle Sam would provide a stimulus and form a floor--especially for a heavily-weighted DJIA company like this. It drifted down... I got out, and took the loss. Next day, stimulus package announcement, and it bounces.

- My instincts were screaming to short DIS at 140, thinking that they would be forced to close parks, but I refrained, thinking that T would step in and bail them out... you can see what happened.

I think what frustrates me the most is that this is the kind of market that I love to trade.. I should be killing it with shorts, like the Plungers of old.

The other day you didn’t even know what price triggered a stop loss and now your slinging shorts and you’re a plunger.. lol..Also there is only 1 person referred to as T’ and that’s Tony Soprano.

 

[ET180]

I've had one of the best 3 weeks of my 31 yrs only because of one reason. MICRO'S . When i detected the massive swings i went to the micro's . I'm still doing an equivalent of 5-10 emin's with the micro's but with my scaling techniques its been incredible . Example. I buy 5 emini's at 2510. They yank it to 2480. I'm down $7500. With the scaling technique i might be down $3k . IT allows me to stay in the trade much longer and not get stopped. It allows me to be very wrong on my initial entry and still make money.I'm using the volatility to my advantage to get much better avg prices. Weeks ago i recommended all go to these as the volatility is so extreme .Each person must understand their personal risk tolerance and develope a plan their comfortable with. Few will admit it but i assure you a ton of traders have been wiped out this past 3 weeks . One big bad trade and its came over .

I have also been using micros to scalp 40 points here and there. Bottom line, reduce your trade size substantially. At 70 VIX, you only need maybe 1/6 of your average position to generate the same profit during calmer markets. Option liquidity has dried up pretty much everywhere except for SPY. Been selling a lot of SPY calls lately. Short duration. Although I sold a few puts too. On Thursday before the close, I was able to sell SPY 222 puts for 0.71 credit...expiring the next day! Crazy premium for so far OTM. At that price I actually would want to be buying.

 

[Turveyd]

I trade of a simple BB 8sma 2.5Dev with a 12sma for direction, either the 8/12sma mid point is my SL or the BB outters, just trade it via M1 but works well on any, that adjusts the SL required, then I don't trade until I've got a SL of <20pts ( normally 12 ), most of the time it's 50+ if not 100 recently, only trading 1am GMT time when it calms down a bit recently

 

[Windlesham1]

FFS do not sell anything naked -grow up people you are idiots to try and trade this. You simply cannot take from the market all the time. The rubbish traders of the last decade just got their backsides handed to them and good riddance. They thought they were genius. Stay OUT -read a proper book about trading and use your time wisely

 

[tiddlywinks]

I have also been using micros to scalp 40 points here and there. Bottom line, reduce your trade size substantially. At 70 VIX, you only need maybe 1/6 of your average position to generate the same profit during calmer markets.

This is off-topic... it is something I do not understand...

Why do people not take advantage of the volatility? I'm not saying go all cowboy, or all-in, or double-down... nothing like that. But if you've determined something like a 1/6 size position can generate your "normal" take, why wouldn't you take advantage and reduce size by ONLY 1/4, 1/3, or even 1/2. Beyond money attitude, there is personal growth that comes with times like these. It just doesn't make sense to not take advantage, at least minimally. There might even be a new "normal" for the trader.

Volatility is equal opportunity... it works on the gain side, the same as on the loss side.

Good trading to all.

 

[Steve Alexander]

It's been a humbling week for me. I'm getting whipsawed, and I'd really appreciate your opinion on how I can improve, and what I need to work on.

I feel like my analyses are correct, but my timing is wrong? What weakness do you see in me and my trading that I should address? <3 Keith

A few examples from this week:

- I went short on UAL, DAL, and AAL. The next day, they had a good day, and swung up. I got out, took the loss... and then T announced the travel ban. They plunged at market open... and I lost out on a big hit.

- I went long on MSFT, thinking that Uncle Sam would provide a stimulus and form a floor--especially for a heavily-weighted DJIA company like this. It drifted down... I got out, and took the loss. Next day, stimulus package announcement, and it bounces.

- My instincts were screaming to short DIS at 140, thinking that they would be forced to close parks, but I refrained, thinking that T would step in and bail them out... you can see what happened.

I think what frustrates me the most is that this is the kind of market that I love to trade.. I should be killing it with shorts, like the Plungers of old.

Stop trading based on fundamentals and main stream news. Stay out of the market for a while.