I'm getting whipsawed, and I need advice/opinion

kmiklas said:
It's been a humbling week for me. I'm getting whipsawed, and I'd really appreciate your opinion on how I can improve, and what I need to work on.

I feel like my analyses are correct, but my timing is wrong? What weakness do you see in me and my trading that I should address? <3 Keith

A few examples from this week:

- I went short on UAL, DAL, and AAL. The next day, they had a good day, and swung up. I got out, took the loss... and then T announced the travel ban. They plunged at market open... and I lost out on a big hit.

- I went long on MSFT, thinking that Uncle Sam would provide a stimulus and form a floor--especially for a heavily-weighted DJIA company like this. It drifted down... I got out, and took the loss. Next day, stimulus package announcement, and it bounces.

- My instincts were screaming to short DIS at 140, thinking that they would be forced to close parks, but I refrained, thinking that T would step in and bail them out... you can see what happened.

I think what frustrates me the most is that this is the kind of market that I love to trade.. I should be killing it with shorts, like the Plungers of old.
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Plungers were regarded as WallStreetBets tier idiots. Some of them made it, some of them didn't. One of them had a biography. "Plunger" is an offensive term for an idiot who goes all in at a moments notice. Is this really what you want to be known as?

It's a bear market and we just got hit with several black swans. Don't beat yourself up too hard for losing money. Just rejoice in the fact you didn't get blown out. Take a week off, clear your head, and come back to it. You seem to be chasing the dragon. Trying to win back just a little so you come out even. Stop trying to make sense of chaos. Accept that nothing makes sense and wait for your setups.
 
dozu888 said:
I actually haven't check, but based on observation it should be very close.... for diversificationi reasons I also have SPY DIA and XLK, but I also add the individual MAGAs so the overall performance is almost the same as the QQQ but the cost is lower.
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Why you worked so hard just to match QQQ?

I shoot to beat my benchmark by at least a few points, otherwise, I would do what you said: Buy & hold QQQ and go fishing everyday instead of working my tail off trading everyday. :D
 
kmiklas said:
It's been a humbling week for me. I'm getting whipsawed, and I'd really appreciate your opinion on how I can improve, and what I need to work on.
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I'm sure it's been for many others too. Not just humbling, but career-ending. Just be glad you didn't blow up.

Thursday was the largest day down on the S&P in % change since Black Monday on October 1987. The market moves have been extreme, both in nominal points (making records here) and on a % change basis.

I have talked to professional traders who have stayed out of the markets this week because they consider it too wild and unpredictable. We're basically seeing an ordinary e-mini S&P RTH range of say 20 points happen in seconds. You may very well be correct on direction, but the market immediately trades 20 points against you only to reverse in your anticipated direction.

Just because the profit potential is huge - does not mean it's there for you to grab. The risk is increased too.

Personally, I did very well at the start of this drop, but had a large loss last Thursday that made me pull the trigger for a few days. Not a career-ending one, but enough that I went slightly in the red on an otherwise good week. I wanted to trade again this week, but with the limit ups/downs, I decided to just watch. I have a trading model which is based on a normal market, not limit ups/downs.

I will trade again this Monday, but with small size. i.e., micros. I never traded micros before, but with this volatility, I simply have to.

This is also what I suggest to you if you didn't already do that. If you still want to play, do so with small size. At least 1/10th of your normal size.

I'm sure there are some people who are crushing it in this market, but they are either very smart and/or experienced. Make no mistakes that there are many people on these boards who also want to give the impression that they're killing it when they've probably taken some bad hits too.

PS: As I review this week and after following it last week live too, I can't help but note that the market is still trading fairly technically. It's just that the counter-moves and general oscillation of the market is so huge that the only way to participate is with wide stops. And without decreased size, that means huge risk and a potential blowup.
 
Great thread, last week was nuts. Had a mix of wins and stops, nothing big either way.

I found it useful to trade small size frequently, and did both day and swing trading.

This is a market to hit and run in, taking a lot of small shots, especially since overnight gaps are so f'ing unpredictable.

It's a bet small and often trading environment, better for daytrading than swings
 
I've had one of the best 3 weeks of my 31 yrs only because of one reason. MICRO'S . When i detected the massive swings i went to the micro's . I'm still doing an equivalent of 5-10 emin's with the micro's but with my scaling techniques its been incredible . Example. I buy 5 emini's at 2510. They yank it to 2480. I'm down $7500. With the scaling technique i might be down $3k . IT allows me to stay in the trade much longer and not get stopped. It allows me to be very wrong on my initial entry and still make money.I'm using the volatility to my advantage to get much better avg prices. Weeks ago i recommended all go to these as the volatility is so extreme .Each person must understand their personal risk tolerance and develope a plan their comfortable with. Few will admit it but i assure you a ton of traders have been wiped out this past 3 weeks . One big bad trade and its came over .
 
hafez50 said:
I've had one of the best 3 weeks of my 31 yrs only because of one reason. MICRO'S.
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Congratulations!

I'm still doing an equivalent of 5-10 emin's with the micro's but with my scaling techniques its been incredible .
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So, you're doing 50-100 e-micros then?

The liquidity seems to be great on the MES. How has your fills been trading this many MES? Any slippage to speak of? Easily filled on limit orders?

Few will admit it but i assure you a ton of traders have been wiped out this past 3 weeks . One big bad trade and its came over .
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No doubt.
 
Yes fills awesome . Understand i'm laddering on the dome . There hitting my prices in line with the emin. I'm not writing this note to brag as i'm no better than many traders on here but i wrote this so others follow. It allows you to be wrong on your entry and still make money using scaling techniques one's comfortable with . It takes the fear out of making the trade . For instance were tanking huge i have zero fear to buy and scale when i see a level i like. It takes the doubt out of your mind. Lets say you buy 1 emin . We moves 20 pts in seconds . Your down $1 k. You buy i micro your down $100. You might panic with the $1k lose. With the micro you buy 3 more. We rally back 10 pts and boom your Up $100 on the micr's but still down $500 on the mini . The above example can be used for trading 100 micro's.
 
Great. Thanks @hafez50.

The obvious advantage with the micros is that you can scale in increments, i.e., 11, 12, 13, ..., 20, instead of going from 1 to 2 e-minis in one go. This is an advantage in regular times too.

Seems like a no-brainer to be trading the micros at least until you're at 20+ regular e-minis or so.
 
ironchef said:
Why you worked so hard just to match QQQ?

I shoot to beat my benchmark by at least a few points, otherwise, I would do what you said: Buy & hold QQQ and go fishing everyday instead of working my tail off trading everyday. :D
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not ‘working’ at all. I make these comments sort of like a blog. Also usually in between games of Overwatch :)

matchjng qqq in itself is already an outperform as the usual mark is the spy.

but. It’s not a permanent hold like in 2000 I was shorting. Although for that kind of rotation daily monitor is not needed.

the inventory performance matches the q. But the entries do beat.
 
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