I'm calling it - The Top Is In

[S2007S]

The chart above reveals two key factors:

1) Based on P/E ratios, the stock market is grossly overvalued, even at current prices. As per Standard & Poor's research, the Q3 2009 P/E ratio is 138.97. Historically, a P/E ratio north of 20 is viewed as expensive. Also, historically, the market almost always corrects within a year of a 20+ P/E ratio. Imagine the impact of a 140 P/E ratio.

2) The chart clearly shows that the stock market does not bottom unless P/E ratios completely reset (indicated by the red line). This was true in the 40s, 50s, 70s and 80s. In 2002 valuations were not reset. As we now know, the 2002 lows did not last. Earlier this year, valuations were not reset either. The implications are clear.

Just as ice does not thaw unless temperatures rise above 32 degrees, the stock market does not bottom unless P/E ratios (and dividend yields) fall below the reset levels, which in turn triggers a sustainable rally.




Rest of the article here:



etfguide
Dow 10,000 - Springboard or Final Kiss Good Bye?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dow-1...1zcHI-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=

 

[S2007S]

 

[ammo]

Quote from saliva:

Chill out! It's not WHAT you see, it's HOW you see it.

does this mean we revert to the cleavage

 

[oraclewizard77]

I have no margin on my stock account and cash built up. I plan no more long trades till Nov 2009.

Market is high, can it go higher, sure... but I have 2 choices, go long and lose money, or stay out and not make money. I choose option number 2.

This is for longer term swing trades only, future trades will be based on intraday charts and could be long or short.

 

[asiaprop]

moron, your call is no less a PREDICTION than anyone else's. You try to predict the market, a futile exercise to start with and COMPLETELY worthless, actually contra-productive, to any consistently successful trader/investor.

Quote from swtrader:

the moment the call is wrong, i will say the call is wrong

but those who call it wrong, before there is either a new closing or intraday high are doing the exact same thing you are accusing me of

saying that the market will make a new high (which is what you're doing by calling the top call wrong) IS a prediction, and an incredibly hypocritical one at that

 

[asiaprop]

fully agree. He put all those few on ignore that had >10 years trading experience and tried to tell him that predicting markets is worthless to start with (a valid criticism in this thread). He seems to have a very hard time to handle criticism, so I would also believe he now has a hard time to handle his stops as well...

Quote from CrazyBoy:

hahahaha what a total schmuck you are.
I take you actually traded your BIG TOP huh, so what is your stop trader boy?
You better shorten it coz its gunna get hit real soon. hahahah the simple moving average kid himself! you ignore anybody that has the knowledge to teach you how its done, jerk!

 

[asiaprop]

Hey Guys, nobody finds it funny how this guy is defending his call as if it means anything whatsoever to the market, while those who hold positions on the back of trends sit back enjoy the ride up, UNTIL the trend is clearly broken? Some talk a lot in life and need a whole lot of explaining why they are not wrong while some others simply follow the market in a pretty relaxed manner. A pity some make their life so hard...

Quote from swtrader:

well, gotta give 'em credit for trying

they're watching the same level I am

but did they bust this call? ---> nope

 

[asiaprop]

buddy, now you are clearly wrong. Several people with a whole lot more market exposure have told you that making predictions in the first time is meaningless because you will most of the time be incorrect. It really does not even matter whether your one call was on the right or wrong side, but you are just to arrogant to actually swallow that.

Quote from swtrader:

no new high

if/when to call is proven wrong, i'll say call is wrong

but it's not as of this moment

the call was based on an observation that 20 month ma had been a good indicator of trend

that doesnt mean it will always be so

i'm not going door to door, forcing people to believe this

and if you have better SPECIFIC secrets you'd like to share, by al means do so

but i've seen a lot of people come to this thread and basically say "you're wrong, i know more than you, but i cant tell you anything specific about what i know"

i really dont have any use for that

(I just realized I wrote this in Alex's (puredick) paragraph style - HELP!!!)

 

[mgabriel01]

Quote from Kassz007:

You've been saying this all year. What makes you think you'll suddenly be right?

If you stick to your story long enough, youre always proven right
If you don't understand that simple fact, you will lose every time

 

[asiaprop]

that is TOTAL bullshit. Anticipation has killed tons of people even the greatest of traders. Following strong market trends can get you out of your position at small loss but at least you are on top of the big moves. Its all a matter of implementation but for sure anticipation does not get you anywhere because NOBODY knows where the market is gonna go next.

By the way, the risk of calling the high as this guy did was WAY HIGHER than the risk of buying into a long position on the dip (down to sub 1019) on the back of the longer term trend. In that the OP clearly showed he had no regard nor respect for basic probabilities.

Quote from riskfreetrading:

Here is what likely happened. After you started the thread, people were bullish. The market moved down fast,. They then changed their opinion, at end of last week or during this week in the rebound, and started shorting. So they shorted late, and since they have now losses they are coming here to complaint.

When it would fall in the next 6 hours of trading, they will repeat the mistake twice, First they will buy because of what they feel now. Then when it will fall, and fall, they will not take it,and the will short it right at the time when a bounce is due, and they would take yet another loss on a late short entry.,

You see the error in this? They do not anticipate, and do not understand how important anticipation is in markets. It allows a man to minimize risk.