I'm calling it - The Top Is In
- Thread starter swtrader
- Start date
i said at the beginning, that the call will be right or it will be wrong, and that aside from that specific 'easy segment' down to 1019. it's as much of a parlor game to invite technical analysis discussion, as anything else. it's also somewhat of a thumbed nose to wishy washy predictions made by people who claim they're right no matter what happens, becasue they were so vague. I'm not going to back off it early, then come back and say it was right later on if it turned out that way
and so far, the call is not wrong. neither the closing or intraday highs have been taken out
So lets get this straight,
The markets are forward looking like we have heard a thousand times before.
Right now markets are up between 60-70% from their lows made in march 2009. At the rate they are moving and the earnings that we have seen in the last quarter alone are showing good times are back and that future potential earnings are on the rise. If this is the case then bernanke and crew better start doing something immediately, how much of this 0% interest rate and unlimited amounts of monopoly money keep going on for, they need to put an end to excess liquidity and let the markets do their own thing. They are over pumping the market at this point, eventually its going to break because it always does.
The markets are forward looking like we have heard a thousand times before.
Right now markets are up between 60-70% from their lows made in march 2009. At the rate they are moving and the earnings that we have seen in the last quarter alone are showing good times are back and that future potential earnings are on the rise. If this is the case then bernanke and crew better start doing something immediately, how much of this 0% interest rate and unlimited amounts of monopoly money keep going on for, they need to put an end to excess liquidity and let the markets do their own thing. They are over pumping the market at this point, eventually its going to break because it always does.
That's the problem, the markets have gotten so used to this excess liquidity that even just a thought of increasing rates to 1-2% or even taking away some of the programs in place would scare the markets once again. I think they are going to keep them in place a lot longer than most think. The fear is that they raise rates, take away the printing press and let things gradually come together again, however if they do start raising rates and start to withdraw these programs in place and the market and economy starts to weaken again then the thought of a depression might be in place. I'm still sticking with an "L" shaped recovery, I don't care what anyone thinks, this is not a "V" shaped recovery. Everyone is feeling good because the markets are moving higher day after day, week after week and month after month, once any fear enters this market you will see how quick sentiment can change. The fed has destroyed the dollar just to put some easy relief into equities, something is going to give sooner or later, the markets do not make sense when being manipulated like they have been.
I don't think they care anymore. last year showed them that if the markets de-bubble people start sharpening there blades. Nobody wants to be killed by an angry mob when they can maybe keep on lying to them long enough for someone else to be on the receiving end. We are totally screwed in the end but for now up up and away we go.
So no target projection?
I understood your reply, but philosophical debates don't mean much because price keeps going the other way. Like Ivan said & he is right 100% - technically you made a good case, the fallacy is in your lack of patience. If you are working of a big enough chart you ought to have waited for support to be broken. That is a sign that I am waiting for, either up or down.
I understood your reply, but philosophical debates don't mean much because price keeps going the other way. Like Ivan said & he is right 100% - technically you made a good case, the fallacy is in your lack of patience. If you are working of a big enough chart you ought to have waited for support to be broken. That is a sign that I am waiting for, either up or down.
no new high
if/when to call is proven wrong, i'll say call is wrong
but it's not as of this moment
the call was based on an observation that 20 month ma had been a good indicator of trend
that doesnt mean it will always be so
i'm not going door to door, forcing people to believe this
and if you have better SPECIFIC secrets you'd like to share, by al means do so
but i've seen a lot of people come to this thread and basically say "you're wrong, i know more than you, but i cant tell you anything specific about what i know"
i really dont have any use for that
(I just realized I wrote this in Alex's (puredick) paragraph style - HELP!!!)
Here is what likely happened. After you started the thread, people were bullish. The market moved down fast,. They then changed their opinion, at end of last week or during this week in the rebound, and started shorting. So they shorted late, and since they have now losses they are coming here to complaint.
When it would fall in the next 6 hours of trading, they will repeat the mistake twice, First they will buy because of what they feel now. Then when it will fall, and fall, they will not take it,and the will short it right at the time when a bounce is due, and they would take yet another loss on a late short entry.,
You see the error in this? They do not anticipate, and do not understand how important anticipation is in markets. It allows a man to minimize risk.
Exactly! First of all, the market's in a well established uptrend the only way to play counter-trend is to short each new high, not to short the pullback from a high. The pullback from each new high is where the bulls are adding to their long positions and trapping the late shorts who decided that last high was the "top".
