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I'm calling it - The Top Is In
- Thread starter swtrader
- Start date
Quote from swtrader:
technical case is in this thread
the actual top was last wednesday, today's close confirms it
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=176672&perpage=6&pagenumber=1
You may very well be right. We have also closed that nasty Oct 2008 gap. And indeed, if the 20MA acts as support for too long, the market can get oversold very quickly. There is also a fundamental divergence between the state of the economy in 2003-2004 and now and the levels on the SPY.
However, timing this beast is problematic as the current momentum could easily cause a blow-off top (unless this is a true bear-market rally that simply dies down slowly).
In general, I see the March rally as a typical surge caused by too many, selling too quickly. Sellers simply got too exchausted. The attitude that the market must always rise is also to blame. Investors think, the market has droped so much so it must necessarily be cheap.
Quote from swtrader:
perhaps participation in top calling threads is not for you?
just an idea
I was going to post a bit of wisdom about sentiment, 'cuz you actually made a fair point about me further up. Then I opened this thread up again, and see this.
So, to summarize: your approach is naive and simplistic. Your lack of character prevents anyone from telling you precisely how to approach the markets in a more constructive manner.
Good luck trading, and have a good life.
Whether the top is in will only be known well after the fact but if you are akin to studying the behavior of price you will surely know that the market behavior has changed since the last Fed announcement. It's possible the recent action is simply a consolidation before the next move up but traders need to be prepared for the case that the top is in place. No matter the case it's a traders job to be prepared to trade an up, down, or sideways market regardless of where their bias lies. I have doubts about the markets ability to advance further but in the event that it does I'll be more than happy to step right in and buy.
Trade what happens, not what you think or want to happen.
Trade what happens, not what you think or want to happen.
Quote from trefoil:
I was going to post a bit of wisdom about sentiment, 'cuz you actually made a fair point about me further up. Then I opened this thread up again, and see this.
So, to summarize: your approach is naive and simplistic. Your lack of character prevents anyone from telling you precisely how to approach the markets in a more constructive manner.
Good luck trading, and have a good life.
no, i'm just a little impatient with people who are just spouting off to hear themselves heard, making non constructive, non specific or off topic remarks
Quote from short&naked:
You may very well be right. We have also closed that nasty Oct 2008 gap. And indeed, if the 20MA acts as support for too long, the market can get oversold very quickly. There is also a fundamental divergence between the state of the economy in 2003-2004 and now and the levels on the SPY.
However, timing this beast is problematic as the current momentum could easily cause a blow-off top (unless this is a true bear-market rally that simply dies down slowly).
In general, I see the March rally as a typical surge caused by too many, selling too quickly. Sellers simply got too exchausted. The attitude that the market must always rise is also to blame. Investors think, the market has droped so much so it must necessarily be cheap.
part of my thesis was that, after closing above the 200 month moving average, a huge, huge technical milestone, that there would be a 'blow off' top to the 20 month moving average (in the spx (and in the dow)
we just had it