I'm calling it - The Top Is In

Quote from swtrader:

bet whatever you want - nobody's forcing you to do anything

besides, by your logic, if you convince us, then by definition, it becomes the new wrong decision
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I don't think I would change popular concencus by posting on ET. Its reach isn't quite that far nor am I a mouthpiece. Predicting the market is retarded, plain and simple. You're bound to be right through pure luck at some point.

But enough retards were banking on the head and shoulders as the sign a couple months ago that when it was broken there was a lot of panic buying. I'll take that trade thank you. Risk/reward.
 
Quote from trefoil:

If the 20 month MA were that good an indicator, everyone would be rich.
It ain't that easy.
And at extremes like what we're at now, it's very hard.
What I was saying was simple, and is proved by this thread: every blip up is met by crazy amounts of skepticism. Same as what I've been saying for gold: every time it gets near the old highs, you get lots of threads about how it's going to the moon. I just reply that it's sideways until it's not. Been doing that for months. Been right about that for months too.
There's actually some very good ways of measuring skepticism, which I use, and no I'm not telling you what they are. I will simply say that this is what they are showing, and this is what they've been showing for months now. In the stock markets, it's up until it's not. When you guys throw in the towel, then we can start working on a top.
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hey you dont go along with it - WE GET IT! that's your right


I'll be happy to read what you have to say when it's more than 'I'm right and everyone else is wrong!' No matter how much bla bla bla you throw out, that's all that's there

and it isnt much

and this "There's actually some very good ways of measuring skepticism, which I use, and no I'm not telling you what they are. "

translation "I know but i'm not telling - you should take the word of an anyonymous guy on the internet who cant tell you why he thinks what he thinks"

that's total bullshit

ii've put all my cards on the table - if you're not showing yours, that's fine but do us a favor and SHUT UP!!!!
 
Quote from swtrader:

fair enough "the" top could be defined as this was the highest it will EVER go, even if we're using $10,000 bills as pennys in gumball machines

I'll define "the" top as the top of this run - meaning I predict it will close below the spx 200 month moving avg before it *closes* above this months high (i didnt use 20 month moving avg because it should drop by about 2-0 points tomorrow)
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I think that a more relevant definition of "the" top would be a high that holds as we get at a very minimum a 38% retracement of the move from 666, in other words a move down to 920 or so.

Take a look at the attached picture... you will see how insignificant a decline to 1019 really is in the grand scheme of things...
 

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Quote from FB123:

I think that a more relevant definition of "the" top would be a high that holds as we get at a very minimum a 38% retracement of the move from 666, in other words a move down to 920 or so.

Take a look at the attached picture... you will see how insignificant a decline to 1019 really is in the grand scheme of things...
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i said a close below the 200 month before a close above this months high - that is technically signifiganct, and it keeps the day of calling this right or wrong from going on and on

i didnt say an interday touch to 1019

i'm not really into fibbonacchis - the devil is in the details of from what to what, and then which fib
 
Quote from wutang:

I don't think I would change popular concencus by posting on ET. Its reach isn't quite that far nor am I a mouthpiece. Predicting the market is retarded, plain and simple. You're bound to be right through pure luck at some point.

But enough retards were banking on the head and shoulders as the sign a couple months ago that when it was broken there was a lot of panic buying. I'll take that trade thank you. Risk/reward.
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translation: 'predictions are retarded, except when i do it'

to those of you who dont beleive in this, well, then dont

it's a thread on the internet, a parlor game

not a formal proposal to change to the US constitution

if you have an analytical counter point, by all means post it

but if it's just 'i know more than everyone else' or 'i dont beleive in doing this' then spare us
 
Looks like head and shoulders pattern right now also we are in a bearish month so a 10% correction is very possible. I am currently trade the day and normally don't hold over night. Seems the day is affected by reports which then create the technical patterns.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^GSPC&t=5d

I would probably not be in margin on any long term stock positions right now.

Quote from swtrader:

translation: 'predictions are retarded, except when i do it'

to those of you who dont beleive in this, well, then dont

it's a thread on the internet, a parlor game

not a formal proposal to change to the US constitution

if you have an analytical counter point, by all means post it

but if it's just 'i know more than everyone else' or 'i dont beleive in doing this' then spare us
More...
 
Quote from swtrader:

i said a close below the 200 month before a close above this months high - that is technically signifiganct, and it keeps the day of calling this right or wrong from going on and on

i didnt say an interday touch to 1019

i'm not really into fibbonacchis - the devil is in the details of from what to what, and then which fib
More...

I wasn't specifically extolling the virtues of Fibs, but you can hardly call a decline to a uptrend line "the" top, and that's all a decline to 1020 or so would be. But in any case, this is all kind of pointless... let's just trade what we see instead of trying to make predictions...
 
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