I would prefer to hold for months.
I don't have any screenshots. Because I always get impatient or have used too much margin and forced to sell.
Edit: Actually yes I have a screenshot. One minute...
I'm back. Hopefully better and more realistic.
- Thread starter farmerjohn1324
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I would prefer to hold for months.
I don't have any screenshots. Because I always get impatient or have used too much margin and forced to sell.
Edit: Actually yes I have a screenshot. One minute...
Here's a screenshot of a gasoline futures. I bought at 1.3922 with $17,100 of margin. Was forced to sell at a loss of $21,500. (I put a few thousand more in with hopes it would turn around). If I would have held until now, I would have profited almost $84,000.
So I don't have screenshots that I like. But here's the last major trade I did that caused me to take a several months break from trading.
Attachments
Do you have the date of a good trade you took?
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The reason I'm bullish on USD is because of recent events. The most recent NFP report absolutely destroyed the expectation (almost double!). There was an auction of 7-year bonds last week that saw a decline in demand for bonds. Core inflation has started to rise, and is expected to rise throughout the next several months (and maybe beyond). This is healthy inflation based on rising consumer demand. I also think the situation will only continue to improve as the United States is ahead of Europe on vaccinations and coming out of lockdown mode. My bullish views on USD are shared by many professionals and articles I've read lately.
My purchase of gasoline futures was based on the common sense assessment that gasoline prices would rise as we come out of the global economic lockdown that was caused by Covid. As you can see, I was correct. But unfortunately, it went the opposite direction for too long and I was forced to sell. Futures are highly leveraged, as I'm sure you know. So any move in the opposite direction leads to big losses.
What per cent of your account
can you vaporize on a trade that does not respond in the expected fashion,
And then after absorbing the loss and reduction in buying power,
be ready to re-enter on a next trade if one emerges in one week?
Well my account is nowhere close to 100% of my net worth, most of which is in real estate. However, it is often a sizeable percentage of my cash.
Also, I realize that I have to leave some of my account in cash (not in active trades), otherwise I will constantly get margin called. And I've yet to determine what that % should be that I should leave in cash.
When I lost that $21,500 on gasoline futures... That was enough to make me think I was done with trading permanently. I briefly tried pure "quant" trading, but I think I realized that's not the way to go for now. I should focus on position trading and understanding what factors move prices...
So it's hard to put a number on your question, but..... Maybe 40-50% maximum loss? Keeping in mind that the size of my account is already based on an amount that I decided I could "afford to lose." (Although a win would be great!)
Three times in a row would be 18% loss each time.
Also, my current "skill set" doesn't allow me to sit back and wait for good trades. It's more like I look at everything in the moment and ask "what's the best trade right now." I don't have the ability to determine if there are no good trades at the moment.
When you look for a trade, what products do you consider?
-Currency pairs of only 8 major currencies. (The lower the spread, the better)
-Futures (index futures, commodities)
In the future, I might also consider all types of options, but not for now.