I'm back. Hopefully better and more realistic.

[farmerjohn1324]

I just transferred money into a live Forex account for the first time in a few months. Last time I was here, I was trying to use Expert Advisers to work with MT4. I stopped doing that because of bad/mediocre results and because the authors of the EA's would not tell me the exact mechanism they work by. This is understandable because they don't want to give away their work. But I decided I either had to write my own EA's or try something else.

Now here's something that might sound irrelevant, but it's not. I downloaded a free (no real money) blackjack app along with a blackjack cheat sheet. According to what I've read online, if you play statistically perfect blackjack, the house only has a 0.5% edge. (Which is still greater than 0%, so no good). If I trust that this blackjack app has good programming, then I did a real good job because I increased my fake account by 50% in about 5 hours betting 1% of account value each time. But the part that sticks out to me was the times I lost with a hand of 20 when the dealer happened to get 21. Despite of this, I still knew I could trust the statistics because blackjack is a closed system. I wish I could say the same about Forex and other highly leveraged/derivative markets.

Also, Jim Simons lost money this year because the crazy Covid stuff confused his algorithms. So I know I cannot rely solely on quantitative analysis, such as EA's.

I currently have sold EUR/USD as my first attempt back at it. No SL or TP in place because I'm watching it very closely for now. I've realized it's not always possible to adjust your trade to a certain % of your account. Instead, you should look at the possibilities of what you think may happen and 1) hope you have enough in your account so that a move in the opposite direction won't stop you out even if you were eventually correct, and 2) size your trade to the points on the graph that you think are important points in your prediction.

 

[DiceAreCast]

Translation: I quit before because I lost all my money, now I am back and do EXACTLY the same thing (small variation is I don't let others do the exact same thing but this time around I do the exact same thing myself) hoping for different outcomes. And because even Jim Simons lost money this year I should be excused to do so, too.

Have you checked the textbook definition of idiocy? It's repeating the same thing and each time hoping for different outcomes. I know you won't take my advice. But here it is nonetheless. Stop what you are doing and educate yourself on this market first. There is apparently a knowledge deficit at play here. Fix that first before you continue to lose more money.

I just transferred money into a live Forex account for the first time in a few months. Last time I was here, I was trying to use Expert Advisers to work with MT4. I stopped doing that because of bad/mediocre results and because the authors of the EA's would not tell me the exact mechanism they work by. This is understandable because they don't want to give away their work. But I decided I either had to write my own EA's or try something else.

Now here's something that might sound irrelevant, but it's not. I downloaded a free (no real money) blackjack app along with a blackjack cheat sheet. According to what I've read online, if you play statistically perfect blackjack, the house only has a 0.5% edge. (Which is still greater than 0%, so no good). If I trust that this blackjack app has good programming, then I did a real good job because I increased my fake account by 50% in about 5 hours betting 1% of account value each time. But the part that sticks out to me was the times I lost with a hand of 20 when the dealer happened to get 21. Despite of this, I still knew I could trust the statistics because blackjack is a closed system. I wish I could say the same about Forex and other highly leveraged/derivative markets.

Also, Jim Simons lost money this year because the crazy Covid stuff confused his algorithms. So I know I cannot rely solely on quantitative analysis, such as EA's.

I currently have sold EUR/USD as my first attempt back at it. No SL or TP in place because I'm watching it very closely for now. I've realized it's not always possible to adjust your trade to a certain % of your account. Instead, you should look at the possibilities of what you think may happen and 1) hope you have enough in your account so that a move in the opposite direction won't stop you out even if you were eventually correct, and 2) size your trade to the points on the graph that you think are important points in your prediction.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

Here's a screenshot from my Demo Forex account. Earlier today, I had bought EURUSD because I thought it might be approaching a resistance line (blue). So I set SL and TP and lost that trade. So after it broke below that resistance, I did the reverse and sold. I quickly won back what I had lost... But then I saw the news about Nonfarm Payrolls way above expectations. So I decided to sell some more, with hopes that this momentum will continue. I will even hold into the weekend even if it goes in opposite direction leading up to close because that may be people taking profits.

Side notes: Last August (I think) I bought gasoline futures RBM21 at 1.3922, with the thought that prices would go up as the economy recovered from Covid. I was forced to sell at about 1.22 because I couldn't afford to keep adding more to my initial maintenance margin. I lost about $21,500. It's now at $2.0248, so I would have profited $79,707. Although realistically, I would have sold way before that.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

Translation: I quit before because I lost all my money, now I am back and do EXACTLY the same thing (small variation is I don't let others do the exact same thing but this time around I do the exact same thing myself) hoping for different outcomes. And because even Jim Simons lost money this year I should be excused to do so, too.

Have you checked the textbook definition of idiocy? It's repeating the same thing and each time hoping for different outcomes. I know you won't take my advice. But here it is nonetheless. Stop what you are doing and educate yourself on this market first. There is apparently a knowledge deficit at play here. Fix that first before you continue to lose more money.

I shouldn't even justify you with a response...

But I'm actually doing drastically different than before. I don't even know who the fvck you are other than you have an attitude such that you're lucky the law protects you.

PS: I'll bet I have more money in my bank account than you do, you c0cksvcking loser. Of which less than 1% is in any trading accounts.

 

[DiceAreCast]

You approach the market in the same dumb way than you have previously done. You won't ever make money this way. Your stop losses are way too wide, too. I mean, I don't even know where to start. Granted, I don't know you much at all, but I can tell you with absolute certainty that your approach to analyze the market is not working. If you must engage in TA then rather look at spotting strong trends. Much more profitable endeavor than what you are trying to do. Learn to first follow market prices rather than predicting them just because you think you have some special insight from your common sense.

Thats the best advice I can give you. Perhaps you consider it or you continue to feel outraged.

I shouldn't even justify you with a response...

But I'm actually doing drastically different than before. I don't even know who the fvck you are other than you have an attitude such that you're lucky the law protects you.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

You approach the market in the same dumb way than you have previously done. You won't ever make money this way. Your stop losses are way too wide, too. I mean, I don't even know where to start. Granted, I don't know you much at all, but I can tell you with absolute certainty that your approach to analyze the market is not working. If you must engage in TA then rather look at spotting strong trends. Much more profitable endeavor than what you are trying to do. Learn to first follow market prices rather than predicting them just because you think you have some special insight from your common sense.

Thats the best advice I can give you. Perhaps you consider it or you continue to feel outraged.

1. On the topic of strong trends, what would be your play on GBP/USD? Could this be a chance to buy a dip?

2. I'm not willing to risk a substantial amount of money in this right now (or possibly ever). Due to this fact, if my SL were closer, then any slight move in the wrong direction would trigger them.

3. I don't recall mentioning TA at all. Unless you consider "chart drawing" to be TA.

4. Why don't you tell about who you are and what you make? And what methods you use? Mostly following trends? I also believe that would be the most consistently profitable strategy.

 

[DiceAreCast]

You might want to first study the theory from credible resources before you apply it to actual time series. Start with Stan Weinstein's book "secrets for profiting in bull and bear markets". A cheesy title but one of the only books a now very successful hedge fund owner recommended me to read when I got my first gig. There is no holy grail but the book lays some very important foundations imo that most market participants have not yet mastered or perhaps ever will.

1. On the topic of strong trends, what would be your play on GBP/USD? Could this be a chance to buy a dip?

2. I'm not willing to risk a substantial amount of money in this right now (or possibly ever). Due to this fact, if my SL were closer, then any slight move in the wrong direction would trigger them.

3. I don't recall mentioning TA at all. Unless you consider "chart drawing" to be TA.

4. Why don't you tell about who you are and what you make? And what methods you use? Mostly following trends? I also believe that would be the most consistently profitable strategy.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

You might want to first study the theory from credible resources before you apply it to actual time series. Start with Stan Weinstein's book "secrets for profiting in bull and bear markets". A cheesy title but one of the only books a now very successful hedge fund owner recommended me to read when I got my first gig. There is no holy grail but the book lays some very important foundations imo that most market participants have not yet masters or perhaps never will.

Just bought the book.

 

[bone]

You're just asking to get your ass run over buying what you see as support or selling what you see as resistance. Usually what you see as "safe" isn't really so safe.

Waiting for a "safe" support or resistance level in order to fade an established market trend is kinda shit risk/reward.

I wish you good fortune !

1. On the topic of strong trends, what would be your play on GBP/USD? Could this be a chance to buy a dip?

2. I'm not willing to risk a substantial amount of money in this right now (or possibly ever). Due to this fact, if my SL were closer, then any slight move in the wrong direction would trigger them.

3. I don't recall mentioning TA at all. Unless you consider "chart drawing" to be TA.

4. Why don't you tell about who you are and what you make? And what methods you use? Mostly following trends? I also believe that would be the most consistently profitable strategy.

 

[Nobert]

John, if i got it right, you still haven't tried TA (because you don't ,,believe" in it) & instead downloaded a black jack demo - card casino game app & found a winning strategy in fx*?