I'm back. Hopefully better and more realistic.

You obviously also want to better understand all the "fixers" in the market. Test yourself. Ask yourself whether you can be woken in the middle of the night and explain what a CPI basket is comprised of. What the preferred measure of core inflation is of the Fed, BoC,... What are labor statistics and how are they exactly defined. Wage growth, and a whole host of other major economic indicators. Understand how they are really defined and what they mean. Then study how they historically impacted asset pricing. All that requires actual study, not just watching some green and red colored dots on broker screens or websites.

farmerjohn1324 said:
Just bought the book.
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bone said:
You're just asking to get your ass run over buying what you see as support or selling what you see as resistance. Usually what you see as "safe" isn't really so safe.

Waiting for a "safe" support or resistance level in order to fade an established market trend is kinda shit risk/reward.

I wish you good fortune !
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I lost the trade where I bought my supposed "support" line. After that happened, I flipped 180 and started selling eurusd, this time backed with what is hopefully good reasoning. (Good news today about NFP and USA interest rates continuing to rise).
 
Nobert said:
John, if i got it right, you still haven't tried TA (because you don't ,,believe" in it) & instead downloaded a black jack demo - card casino game app & found a winning strategy in fx*?
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I have tried TA, in the form of Expert Advisers that I purchased. I still KNOW that TA doesn't drive markets, and that qualitative economic news/data does. For example, could any indicator have predicted the coronavirus? Obviously not.

Doesn't mean that TA can't work short-term or under certain conditions.

It's hard to put into words, but I just feel more prepared this time. I actually tried this sort of free hand method on demo Forex a few months ago and was profitable over several weeks. If it went in the wrong direction, instead of selling for a loss, I would buy more. I held one pair for almost 4 weeks buying every dip until I finally sold for profit.

And the blackjack thing just got me thinking that I could potentially make decent money if I could reliably get my % over 50%.

I'd be more than willing to stop all this and play blackjack if there was a statistically proven method to beat the house odds. But I don't think that's possible. Especially because they sell those same "cheat sheets" I was using in the casino gift shops lol
 
Just buy some oil/commodity stocks and re-evaluate in a year or two. Much less effort and the results will be superior to your current approach.
 
farmerjohn1324 said:
I just transferred money into a live Forex account for the first time in a few months. Last time I was here, I was trying to use Expert Advisers to work with MT4. I stopped doing that because of bad/mediocre results and because the authors of the EA's would not tell me the exact mechanism they work by. This is understandable because they don't want to give away their work. But I decided I either had to write my own EA's or try something else.

Now here's something that might sound irrelevant, but it's not. I downloaded a free (no real money) blackjack app along with a blackjack cheat sheet. According to what I've read online, if you play statistically perfect blackjack, the house only has a 0.5% edge. (Which is still greater than 0%, so no good). If I trust that this blackjack app has good programming, then I did a real good job because I increased my fake account by 50% in about 5 hours betting 1% of account value each time. But the part that sticks out to me was the times I lost with a hand of 20 when the dealer happened to get 21. Despite of this, I still knew I could trust the statistics because blackjack is a closed system. I wish I could say the same about Forex and other highly leveraged/derivative markets.

Also, Jim Simons lost money this year because the crazy Covid stuff confused his algorithms. So I know I cannot rely solely on quantitative analysis, such as EA's.

I currently have sold EUR/USD as my first attempt back at it. No SL or TP in place because I'm watching it very closely for now. I've realized it's not always possible to adjust your trade to a certain % of your account. Instead, you should look at the possibilities of what you think may happen and 1) hope you have enough in your account so that a move in the opposite direction won't stop you out even if you were eventually correct, and 2) size your trade to the points on the graph that you think are important points in your prediction.
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If the house has an edge even against statistically perfect play, then by definition any money you made in playing it was pure luck.. ?? :confused: You say it's not irrelevant, but I'm pretty sure it is totally irrelevant. Markets have zilch to do with blackjack.

Jim Simons didn't lose money in 2020. On the contrary, he made a killing: https://www.institutionalinvestor.c...76-in-2020-But-Funds-Open-to-Outsiders-Tanked

Do you have an edge in FX trading? It doesn't sound like you do. Don't trade without an edge if your goal is making money.
 
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