If you want to fail as a trader, study TA

[Fibbin-Archie]

It appears that spike was the top. The market has broken 100 points down, however not before my short was shaken out, as I've said, my biggest bugbear is exits.

So we've talked about BOBs, NRBs & WRBs, or breakouts on volatility expansion.

Surely you would need to tailor your strategy for trend days and range bound days. Which begs the question, how do you anticipate each of these?

Opps, forgot, I'm not allowed to ask questions, LMFAO. Look Blotto, there are a million and one other free resources on the net. It just so happens that I actually value the opinions of a select group of posters here.

IA = Indicator Analysis? (as in substitute IA for TA in the title of this thread).

 

[Airwaves]

to make GOOD money we need to know which way the market is going to go.

 

[xburbx]

RN

The way I anticipate is by knowing the direction of the overall market and then playing the weakest/strongest stocks in there. I am anticipating if the market is going up and my strong stock is in an upward movement, that there is only 1 top and chances are I will not get snagged in it. I do know that larger retraces and probe out are possible. I guess that's how I anticipate the move but as you stated, I'm wrong 50% of the time or so.

Quote from Redneck:

X,

Yes Sir – need to be flexible

Yes Sir need to anticipate (not predict but anticipate)... Although TE would say know – because after all he is TE… But us mortals must anticipate – for now…


Now for the $64K question – How can we do that (anticipate)


Think this through using what’s previously been posted – and let’s see what you get

And X please don’t concern yourself with being wrong – I’m wrong nearly every day – our goal is to never stay that way too long


RN

 

[Fibbin-Archie]

Quote from xburbx:

RN

The way I anticipate is by knowing the direction of the overall market and then playing the weakest/strongest stocks in there. I am anticipating if the market is going up and my strong stock is in an upward movement, that there is only 1 top and chances are I will not get snagged in it. I do know that larger retraces and probe out are possible. I guess that's how I anticipate the move but as you stated, I'm wrong 50% of the time or so.

XX, just done it again on EUR/USD, picked the LIKELY top to within 2 points, I know it ain't a good way to trade, but SO FAR I'm getting rewarded for such bad behaviour. It's sold off pretty good SO FAR and broken intraday trendline support. It's currently hovering just above the 23.6 fibo of the most recent drive.

To be fair, there was a good technical reason for the trade, which was selling right into the daily 100 SMA.

The daily chart is on the right of the screen shot and the brownish orange line is the 100 SMA.

 

[Mysteron]

Quote from Redneck:

TE,

I know you don’t think much of TA – although it could be argued price, lines, $TICK, others are part of TA

And I’m certain FA does not come in to play intraday


So for you – I have coined new category – IA

Care to take a stab at the meaning… then we’ll see if you agree


Hint
A = Analysis

The I – well it has two possible meanings – the obvious one being Intellectual, but as for the second meaning – I wonder what it could be… :eek:

RN

Another attempt, as there is no need to add more letters to explain the meaning, inspired by oneself, myself and eveyone:

I

 

[macattack]

Quote from The Expert:

There is one thing certain about TIME, and, that is;

Time Never Stands Still

We also know that Time = Money

therefore,

Money Never Stands Still

How do you catch something that never stands still?

I reckon this one will be got by RN, if he is looking in

TE

Keep your eye on it and chase it down.

Set a trap.

Wait for it in a certain location if you have a reason to believe it'll return to that location soon.

 

[DB_sezwhat]

Quote from ymtrader:

Wait for it to come to you?

+1

 

[Mysteron]

Quote from The Expert:

There is one thing certain about TIME, and, that is;

Time Never Stands Still

We also know that Time = Money

therefore,

Money Never Stands Still

How do you catch something that never stands still?

I reckon this one will be got by RN, if he is looking in

TE

Draw a box around it, or at least around the limits of its expected variation.

As far as I recall, no one has actually asked, what is meant by Time=Money?

Although everyone must surely think they know, as it sounds so obvious. Is it mean't just as a common saying or is there some deeper meaning?

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from Redneck:

Hersey

Here’s yer chance

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Your approach – and for argument sake lets just say V leads P 100% of the time…

You maintain – you have the ability to be in the market 100% of the time

Explain – in simple terms please – how FTT (failures to traverse) are indentifed – before they happen - using volume, your channels, and any other thing you like... So you know exactly when to exit and reverse… and so you’re never caught in a losing position

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Blind man can trade channels – now explain how a blind man can see the future so he knows exactly when to exit and reverse – staying in the mkt 100% of the time... and never getting caught in a loser…


Lots Of Love to you also Jack

eta - Two additional requests - Please do not post after the fact charts (unless you are using it to show what will happen in the future)

Also please be specific about the timeframe you are foretelling

RN

You put up a pane which has bars on it. they have balck for long and red for short as an expression of sentiment.

There are five horizontal lines. Since symmetry exists, the center line has Zero value. going away from zero are two levels on each side of Zero. they represent various levles of robustness. the inner two show the levfel of NO statisitical significance and the outer two show a level of significance that is at least 1 sigma making them the place of before fat tails but including about 70 % of the total distribution inside the distribution. A 1600 5 minute bar sample is used to adjust the distribution. There are many OTR sample items in a 1600 5 min bar sample.

The pane has a new bar every minute and the forming bar is done on a OTR basis.

Signal are leading and they are done by using velocity and acceleration of the representation on the pane.

The equation for the representation (in words) is:

(index - cash) - absolute value of the Premium.

Color is adjusted by taking the premium actual value into account.

Applications include about 80 markets. The better applications are to use the pane as a leading indicator of one market over another. A popular lagging market is the ES compared to: either the DJX.X or YM and DJIA (cash).

To view this indicator look at photos of mt screens or illustrations in various documents which focus on how to move one's eye's across the collectivepanes to always "know that you know".

The leading signals continue to appear in derms of the first and second derivatives of the colored bars (their scalar magnitude) with respect to time. Use conventional differential calculus converted to statistical analysis as applied to any science where non continuous functions represent the data on a fixed invarient given level of granularity.

since portions of minutes are invloved in the leading aspect, A person can train himself to be calibrated to "read" the pane. for those who "read the tape", this is only happening, significantly 20 to 40 times a day and the limit in taking the market's offer is around six times the daily range.

No other panes are required for doing this. A handy trading platform is to use the ES DOM since the "walls" are there @ the turning points for the signal on the pane above described.

Usually a person trading a sgnificant number of contracts (with respect to market capacity) takes the trouble to use an ATS that has all the V and P bells and whistles.

Running ahead of the herd using smart money as a leading indicator, lets anyone from geginner to expert make a multiple of the daily range ever day and not ever be on the wrong side of the market.

The reasons for having the five horizontal lines will be obvious to anyone who deals in money management and risk. I do not use targets of stops for obvious reasons (I am taking the market's offer continually). In trading, effectiveness and efficiency replace targets and stops, since optimizing performance is what is happening.

Elsewhere you can find mention of making 80% a year as an employment climate factor. Those employees never come into contact with optimization nor effectiveness nor efficiency regarding trading or investing.

I have over 10 more of these leading indicators, all related to taking the market's offer as the standard.

This shifts performance in terms of 80% from annually to quarterly to weekly to a matter of a day or so (on the basis of compounding profits). Some people do hand out profits for assorted reasons (like they work for others.)

So thank you for the magnanimous offer you gave to me in the form of a "chance". I do not initiate anything but limit myself to responding to opportunities.

The view from here is kinda nice.

Google: Stretch/Squeeze".

 

[jack hershey]

To explain the formula.

both cash and index are big numbers.

Their difference would just look like volume on a chart (meaning all the bars would stick up from an axis.)

By taking out (subtracting) the Premium, the bars can appear on either side of a horizontal neutral. Coloring the bars black and red makes it easy to see a trade sentiment. Premium is a "fair" neutral value of the difference of cash and index.

For those who are skilled at "reading" the markets, the pattern also appears on the S/S chart as three successive portions (dominant, non dominant and dominant).

Long ago in the days of ticker tape, the triads were known to some and others just did "up" and "down". Usually, anger resulted on the part of the up and downer's. Fear and anxiety preceded this anger. A good read is Lo (MIT) who measured the big money guys in terms of their anxiety, fear and anger. None he measured were traders in the intraday sense of making money.

Here in this simple math we are just looking at divergence from the mean in MLR where the smart money leads the MLR.

RTM is an "after effect" of the leading indicator (sentiment shift) being invoked. the markets are largely couterintuitive and taking the market's offer is what is being demonstrated in my posts. People mostly confuse my posts as being in the CW box. That box is the financial industry box where the industry makes money on a fees and commision basis instead ofdealing with the market's offer. These are two different fields of endeavor. This thread is a CW oriented thread.

I really do not want to "take over" this thread. So please do not afford me any further "chances".