If you want to fail as a trader, study TA

[NoDoji]

Quote from Airwaves:

to make GOOD money we need to know which way the market is going to go.

I disagree. We never know which way the market is going to go, though we may think we know. I think personal bias keeps me from making GOOD money.

My most profitable trades simply let the market tell me which way it wants to go. My most profitable trades are entered via buy stops or sell stops placed at breakout levels so that if the order is filled it means the market really wanted to go there badly enough to break through a previous high or low. It could be a previous pivot high or low, or it could be a previous bar's high or low, but the very fact that buyers or sellers are willing break these S/R levels places me in the direction of momentum, even though I may think those prices are absurd.

I captured one of my best moves ever in CL today after price had made a straight drop down 1.33 (nearly 2%), pivoted and finally printed a green bar. I "knew" that price fell way too far, way too fast and would now go up at least .40-.50. But I decided to let the market tell me which direction it would go by selling the low of a conditional signal bar (if price hits X, I'm short). The market went in the direction it wanted to go and took me with it, despite the fact that I "knew" it was way too low to short and wanted to go up more first. In fact, I would've made significantly more money on the trade if I wasn't so absolutely sure that the first price pivot after my entry meant price really wanted to go up now that it had fallen waaaaayyy too far (wrong, it wanted to drop another .45 from my exit price).

 

[SK0]

Quote from jack hershey:

There are five horizontal lines. Since symmetry exists, the center line has Zero value. going away from zero are two levels on each side of Zero. they represent various levles of robustness. the inner two show the levfel of NO statisitical significance and the outer two show a level of significance that is at least 1 sigma making them the place of before fat tails but including about 70 % of the total distribution inside the distribution. A 1600 5 minute bar sample is used to adjust the distribution. There are many OTR sample items in a 1600 5 min bar sample.

The pane has a new bar every minute and the forming bar is done on a OTR basis.

Signal are leading and they are done by using velocity and acceleration of the representation on the pane.

Thanks for afford me the chance to ask.

If I understand correctly, the space inside outer levels encompasses 70% of the sample. What about the space inside inner levels where noise resides I assume?

And, why 5 min bar sample if the pane displays 1 min bar?

Lastly, please elaborate further on the signals if you could. You seem to say that we should see no abnormal indication if a bar stays inside space bounded by outer levels. So, do you mean space beyond outer levels are where we should find the change signals?

TIA

 

[Redneck]

Possibly the obvious one (to me):
Intraday

or perhaps:
Information


Another attempt, as there is no need to add more letters to explain the meaning, inspired by oneself, myself and eveyone:

I




MN

To your first one – No Sir
To your second – Great insightful thinking – even wish I had thought of it but I didn’t – unfortunately No Sir

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IA = Indicator Analysis? (as in substitute IA for TA in the title of this thread).

FA

No Sir

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What Does Technical Analysis Mean? (copied verbatim from Investopedia)
A method of evaluating securities by analyzing statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices and volume. Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a security's intrinsic value, but instead use charts and other tools to identify patterns that can suggest future activity


Pretty ambiguous definition if you ask me… In fact so ambiguous that I have yet see two traders actually agree on what TA is… or PA for that matter


Traders need to be specific – so that is what we’re going to be - specific….


IA – imo describes a way to analyze price – as described in this thread…

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And before it’s over we’re going to decide exactly what IA contains – iow the specific tools & techniques we will use to analyze price & trade… with the only rule being whatever gets in to IA – must be useful in making money

Useful to who – me (I thought of it)… but also useful to anyone with enough fortitude to take a chance and participate in a constructive manor…


The goal is not to trade alike or even use the same exact tools/ techniques contained in IA…

The goal is to understand what we’ve decide to place in IA… and more importantly why… Then we can pick our own poison…


Imo it is a much easier destination – if you first know where you’re trying to get

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For those who participate constructively – nothing (I repeat nothing) is off table when suggesting it get added to IA – just as long as you, I, or we collectively can explain specifically how at least one of us can use it to make money – then we will add it..

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So let’s figure out what IA stands for

Then we can get to deciding what it shall contain….

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Some caveats

We may very well end up creating something useful – but it will be your responsibility to develop a trader capable of utilizing it and reaping the rewards…

This will be work – but so is trading – use it as a training ground – good news is it won’t cost you a dime…

For heaven sakes – let’s not recreate TA and call it done – PA is arguably a subset of TA… treat IA the same


At the end of this I fully expect each of us to go our own way – but for a moment in time possibly we can work as one and acomplishing something worthwile – or not – we shall see.

RN

 

[Redneck]

Quote from Fibbin-Archie:

It appears that spike was the top. The market has broken 100 points down, however not before my short was shaken out, as I've said, my biggest bugbear is exits.

So we've talked about BOBs, NRBs & WRBs, or breakouts on volatility expansion.

Surely you would need to tailor your strategy for trend days and range bound days. Which begs the question, how do you anticipate each of these?

Opps, forgot, I'm not allowed to ask questions, LMFAO. Look Blotto, there are a million and one other free resources on the net. It just so happens that I actually value the opinions of a select group of posters here.

IA = Indicator Analysis? (as in substitute IA for TA in the title of this thread).

Take the above....

Add this....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qOvDsftwD4A


And describe what it would look like - where it matters most


RN

 

[Redneck]

Quote from jack hershey:

I really do not want to "take over" this thread. So please do not afford me any further "chances".

I posed a request – you responded

Thank You

RN

 

[Redneck]

Quote from xburbx:

RN

The way I anticipate is by knowing the direction of the overall market and then playing the weakest/strongest stocks in there. I am anticipating if the market is going up and my strong stock is in an upward movement, that there is only 1 top and chances are I will not get snagged in it. I do know that larger retraces and probe out are possible. I guess that's how I anticipate the move but as you stated, I'm wrong 50% of the time or so.

XX,

How can you, I, or anyone know direction? (remember be specific if you want to answer)


If I may suggest – let’s table this for now, figure out what IA is... and put some useful context to it– then we can absolutely return to this and discuss

In the meantime and if you are trading – protect your capital – the mkt is in a peculiar place right now – and it could go either way fast and without much warning…

RN

 

[blox87]

IA

Interactive?
Interpretive ?
Inside?
Illegal? Goldman Sachs style

 

[charts]

Quote from jack hershey:

... A 1600 5 minute bar sample is used to adjust the distribution. There are many OTR sample items in a 1600 5 min bar sample.

The pane has a new bar every minute and the forming bar is done on a OTR basis.

Signal are leading and they are done by using velocity and acceleration of the representation on the pane.

The equation for the representation (in words) is:

(index - cash) - absolute value of the Premium.

Color is adjusted by taking the premium actual value into account. ... Google: Stretch/Squeeze".

I guess it's either one-tick-range bar or one-minute (?).

 

[Fibbin-Archie]

Do The Bartman?

Sorry RN I don't get the significance...

 

[amplituda]

Intentional
OR
Irrational