If you could sort of occasionally call tops and bottoms, which position sizing style would you use?

scaling requires so much more decision making. We have a tendency to pull trades quickly, or at least most traders do. I prefer to have very few rules that will take me out of a trade early.

I leave money on the table many times per month. But when the markets move... I take down large cuts.

ES... what is MFE and MAE?
 
MAE = maximum adverse excursion
MFE = maximum favorable excursion

I cannot imagine making the decisions that you have made without these studies. It gives the impression that you are lazy.

ES

P.S. I suggest you take a weekend and plot all of your trades noting the MAE and MFE indicating the time of entry on a heat map. You might discover something. You may be lucky and taking your trades correctly, but likely not. Refinement is all that you have left if you have a system that you can trade profitable other than betsizing.

Palindrome said:
scaling requires so much more decision making. We have a tendency to pull trades quickly, or at least most traders do. I prefer to have very few rules that will take me out of a trade early.

I leave money on the table many times per month. But when the markets move... I take down large cuts.

ES... what is MFE and MAE?
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It just seems like there are so many variables to determining that optimum outcome.

Volatility, trend months vs, etc.

GC I was short this week from 1204, if I scaled slowly out, I would have missed out on massive gains that I took.

It's so complex thats why I have not bothered taking the time to figure out what works best other than holding on to all contracts and letting them make as much money as possible.
 
Your doing fine..Start the plotting and learn from the times and the excursions. Your betsizing has nothing to do with your account balance. This plotting will indicate to you your higher probability set ups and you will start making extreme amounts of money from your system like you have not seen before. The more history you have on your actual trades...not backtesting... the more accurate you will be. Learn from yourself and your trades. You obviously found a system that fits you and this additional work will help you find your way even more.

eS

P.S. If you wish you can attach notes to your heatmap to remind you what happended on that day or zone you traded. Use it as your Statistical Trade Journal (STJ). I should write one of those in Excel and post it here on ET. Note to self: Future project to do

Palindrome said:
It just seems like there are so many variables to determining that optimum outcome.

Volatility, trend months vs, etc.

GC I was short this week from 1204, if I scaled slowly out, I would have missed out on massive gains that I took.

It's so complex thats why I have not bothered taking the time to figure out what works best other than holding on to all contracts and letting them make as much money as possible.
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Try to get away from "all or none" and graduate to scaling. Now in a fast moving situation you sometimes gotta' get in with everything. But I find exits can be more calculated. According to your system and symbol sometimes you can scale in and scale out.

For example divergence trading works beautifully with scaling in and out.

ES

P. S. PM me. If I stop posting here.. I am still here. I have been here for a decade and a half under the same handle.

P.S.S. I once had an ARB system that used "scaling" in amazing ways to offset weights on a continious basis (always in watching the float) pulling money from the market...but I got banned from doing that in FXCM before they left the USA.

Palindrome said:
ES... you just assigned me about 200 Hours of work :)
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Let me ask you a question if you don't mind.

Let's say my entrance into SHORT GC at 1204 resulted in 2018's MFE of let's say 40 Points.

But throughout the year what I have found in a 1 week time frame the MFE is roughly on average 7.

I don't understand what the conclusion would ultimately draw.

That your average exit should be 7? I just don't get how these statistics are that valuable.



Further... My priciples are... once I enter a statistically significant event... I let the randomness of the market determine the outcome. I never know how far a market will go.
 
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