If you could sort of occasionally call tops and bottoms, which position sizing style would you use?

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1a2b3cppp

Since the topic doesn't have enough space, let me clarify, if you could locate them around 3 by 5 points, how would you position size? You're going to be adding to losers here but it won't matter because you're going to be right sometimes.

Assume you get a signal at 1700. You are fairly confident that price is not going to go below 1695. What do the best prices to increase your position look like?

Actually wait until 1695 and potentially let a winner slip away?

+1 at 1700, +1 at 1698, +1 at 1695?

+1 at 1700, +2 at 1695?

Keep in mind you're going to be wrong nearly approximately half the time.

How would you leave the positions on? Close most for profit and leave a couple open?
 
If you have bias on the position you want to initiate, place 1st unit at the closest SR line, if the position goes against you and consolidates at a zone, calculate how much drawdown your in. Than wait for it to go further into drawndown and consolidate at the next SR level, when you average in your price should be at the 1st drawdown level. If your correct price should atleast retrace to that first drawdown level. And if your truly correct on your bias, than should go into profit territory.
 
dozu888 said:
I have been going all in since 2009.
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1a2b3cppp,

I will give you a statistically sound trade management routine for the NQ because I like Fibozachi. You will make it to 10 points often.

About the exit...Take out a delta target with 1/2 of your position then move SL to BE. Take out some more with three predefined targets and let the last one run with a trailing stop.

Like for the NQ...enter 8 contracts with a SL of 4 points all at the same time because you are entering a momentum trade...use a Market order because you want all of your contracts in now.
  1. Then take 4 contracts off at 3 points and move SL to BE.
  2. Then take 1 contract off at 5 points
  3. Then take 1 contract off at 10 points
  4. Then take 1contract off at 15 points
  5. Let the last contract run with a manual trailing stop and let the stop take it out.
...So in this gaming method you can lose 4 points or BE some of the time and you can get a chance at 10 points many times and for a run sometimes. You are surviving for the run.

ElectricYourWelcomeSavant


1a2b3cppp said:
Since the topic doesn't have enough space, let me clarify, if you could locate them around 3 by 5 points, how would you position size? You're going to be adding to losers here but it won't matter because you're going to be right sometimes.

Assume you get a signal at 1700. You are fairly confident that price is not going to go below 1695. What do the best prices to increase your position look like?

Actually wait until 1695 and potentially let a winner slip away?

+1 at 1700, +1 at 1698, +1 at 1695?

+1 at 1700, +2 at 1695?

Keep in mind you're going to be wrong nearly approximately half the time.

How would you leave the positions on? Close most for profit and leave a couple open?
More...
 
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I can call the top and the bottom of a trend and in ranging markets. I think you most of you guys think way to hard or spend to much time posting in ET. Spend more time developing your theta.
 
I trade like this. I have a max drawdown (pain) on the trade that I am willing to suffer. I'll scale using 2 entries. First entry is to make sure I dont miss the move and second is more trying to time the actual turning point. If I try to be in all at once waiting for a perfect entry I tend to hesitate and miss moves and this messes up my psychology for future trades. Its best done on higher intra day timeframe charts in my opinion where if you are right you can get a move in your direction that last hours not minutes. Also best to have more than a few thousands in your account in case a trade really gets away from you.
 
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