If you could sort of occasionally call tops and bottoms, which position sizing style would you use?

Well you discovered your BE trade. Also what times are best? Those times plotted with the best winrate means you increase trade size. This is all very tough to do on the fly like this so take it with a grain of salt.

Hope this helps and gives you some ideas.

ES

P.S. There are many traders reading this discourse and it is archived for those of you perusing ET later. I hope that I have helped you as many of you do not put in the time to have a dynamic trade journal/heatmap that I suggest. Are you gambling or are you working?

Palindrome said:
Let me ask you a question if you don't mind.

Let's say my entrance into SHORT GC at 1204 resulted in 2018's MFE of let's say 40 Points.

But throughout the year what I have found in a 1 week time frame the MFE is roughly on average 7.

I don't understand what the conclusion would ultimately draw.

That your average exit should be 7? I just don't get how these statistics are that valuable.



Further... My priciples are... once I enter a statistically significant event... I let the randomness of the market determine the outcome. I never know how far a market will go.
More...
 
ElectricSavant said:
1a2b3cppp,

I will give you a statistically sound trade management routine for the NQ because I like Fibozachi. You will make it to 10 points often.

About the exit...Take out a delta target with 1/2 of your position then move SL to BE. Take out some more with three predefined targets and let the last one run with a trailing stop.

Like for the NQ...enter 8 contracts with a SL of 4 points all at the same time because you are entering a momentum trade...use a Market order because you want all of your contracts in now.
  1. Then take 4 contracts off at 3 points and move SL to BE.
  2. Then take 1 contract off at 5 points
  3. Then take 1 contract off at 10 points
  4. Then take 1contract off at 15 points
  5. Let the last contract run with a manual trailing stop and let the stop take it out.
...So in this gaming method you can lose 4 points or BE some of the time and you can get a chance at 10 points many times and for a run sometimes. You are surviving for the run.

ElectricYourWelcomeSavant
More...

I think scaling in would be better because if price goes in your favor eventually you'd have a better average. THIS IS PROBABLY WRONG (just kidding). It would have a $640 loss every time your way. Need sort of a huge account. Scaling in could reduce the loss. BUT, it reduces winners if you're right on your calls most of the time. Considering price could go in your way with fewer than 8 contracts were you to do it like this. So let's say you can get within 5 points nearly of the bottom. That's what I want to figure out position sizing for trading in my thread.

Nevertheless check your PMs man.
 
1a2b3cppp said:
Since the topic doesn't have enough space, let me clarify, if you could locate them around 3 by 5 points, how would you position size? You're going to be adding to losers here but it won't matter because you're going to be right sometimes.

Assume you get a signal at 1700. You are fairly confident that price is not going to go below 1695. What do the best prices to increase your position look like?

Actually wait until 1695 and potentially let a winner slip away?

+1 at 1700, +1 at 1698, +1 at 1695?

+1 at 1700, +2 at 1695?

Keep in mind you're going to be wrong nearly approximately half the time.

How would you leave the positions on? Close most for profit and leave a couple open?
More...

1. What is your expected move to your T1 (target1 ) for trades that go in your favour?
2. How many loser trades in a row can your account handle?
3. on your system what is the W:R you expect?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top