If You Can Draw A Straight Line . . .

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SLV has gone up reasonably well and may have lead to some profits for the alert. Surely this doesn't imply I am some kind of a genious but I wouldn't dissuade you from holding me in that respect :). The price now is consolidating in a tight range. I wouldn't have been surprised to see a more significant retracement of say around 50% but it hasn't panned out yet. The rise from 18.71 to 22.59 makes the midpoint of this move about 20.65. Considering price hasn't dropped below 22 so far shows the demand still has the upper hand. Does this mean it's a guarantee price will start going up again? Of course not!

What we are trying to decipher are the subtle signs given by the interplay between demand and supply. There is a breather taking place (mini consolidation) and the retracement has been minimal. With this observation those with longer time horizons and risk tolerance can give price more room to gyrate. Others can choose to exit just because demand line was breached and can re-enter at the resumption of the upside move. I must here point out though that the breach in the demand line isn't really a breach (say what!?). What I mean is that just because price was moving sideways in a tight range and happened to cross an imaginary demand line doesn't give us a signal that demand side is losing its grip and the supply side taking over. These supply lines and demand lines give us a better visual as to what is happening with price and are only an aid in viewing the price. Had there been a significant drop in price through the demand line we would have given it more consideration. A breach in time isn't the same as a breach in price.

So far SLV looks healthy and for the end of day trader life goes on at its own merry pace.

Here's the link to the previous post:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=276076&perpage=6&pagenumber=80


Here's the SLV Daily chart:
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Gringo
 

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Quote from dbphoenix:

If your plan is consistently profitable in practice, increase your size to what is a comfortable level, maintaining a continuous loop of re-appraisal and re-evaluation. When things come unglued, back up as far as necessary to regain your footing.
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I increased my size today to 5 contracts.

Today's premarket analysis again had me looking for a potential long trade on a test of our old friend 72 +/-, or a short on a test of 77.50 - 80 +/-. The selling wave that commence premkt from 77.50 was noted here this morning, and I posted a combo tic/one minute chart to show, as close to real time as possible, how I read price to find entries. I did not trade this short, and hence I was able to snap a couplke of pics and futz around with MS paint to cobble the example together.

The selling wave carried right down to (surprise! surprise!) our old friend 72, bounced along that level, and heading into the open, started to rise, but fell short of 77.50.

After a quick poke below 72, buyers stepped up, and I quickly, using a market order, got long during the 9:32 bar interval. I held the long until exiting during the 9:51 bar interval.

That was my only trade today. On the chart, you will note two things. First, I placed black stars to denote levels where I would likely have exited had price dropped to thos levels. I do not actually move my stop loss order, as I exit all trades using market orders. But I do "move" my stop mentally. Second, I superimposed my pnl from today. Again, I'll post losses as they occur, but I am not going to purposefully throw a trade to bolster someone else's ego.

Why did I stop when I did? The main reason, honestly, is that today was hot and humid here, and I wanted to get my other work done and over with as early as possible. Having a nice profit like this made it seem like a reasonable choice.

Let me put it like this - from my perspective - my profit from today would be a solid week's net profit at my trade - 40, 50, sometimes 60 hours of hard, hot, physical labor. Same with yesterday's and Monday's profits. In the first three days this week, I have made from day trading more than three week's average profit from my regular trade.

I am not a rich man. When I started this journey 13 months ago, my only financial goal was that I make trading profits equal to $60K in usable income per year. I had been doing well while trading individual stock issues, but the regularity and size of my profits since switching to the NQ has increased substantially. This month alone I have brought home nearly 20% of my trading profit goal for the entire year . And when I say "brought home, " I mean that literally. Each day, before I log out of my trading platform, if I had profits, I request a check for that amount sent home.

I say none of this to brag. None of you know me personally. But I know there are a few reading along who are where I was and who want to get where I am. Naysayers be damned, I'll say today what I said last night:

Quote from fortydraws:

think what you will, the dollars are real, this approach to trading is real, and so am I.
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Quote from fortydraws:

You just can't make this stuff up ... How can I post a loser when I am allowed to use the same play book over and over? Eventually the market will throw me a curve ball and I will swing and miss, but not this morning.

I am really out of here now until tonight. I hope everyone, everyone has a profitable day here.
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While watching everything unfold this morning on the NQ, I said to myself "I bet fortydraws got long after that test and quick rejection of 3072" I also figured your exit would be about where it ended up being.

I took the same trade in SIM this morning, but exited at the first congestion at 3080. Had this as an area to watch pre-market, and got shook out when it stalled there. In the back of my mind I knew I should hang on for further clarification, especially as it took off again about a minute after I punched out.

Great trading .... I'm glad to see that I spotted the same thing as you did, just disappointed I couldn't hold on for the bigger target.
 
Quote from YMOCA:

While watching everything unfold this morning on the NQ, I said to myself "I bet fortydraws got long after that test and quick rejection of 3072" I also figured your exit would be about where it ended up being.

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I'm glad to see that I spotted the same thing as you did, just disappointed I couldn't hold on for the bigger target.
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I am also glad to see that you saw things as I did, and I am very glad that you mentioned it here out loud :cool:

On an unrelated matter, I did want to mention that around this time of year, through Labor day, I schedule time off for family activities. The next two days are among those days. So if I go silent for a few days, even until after Labor day, don't think I went belly up :)
 
Quote from YMOCA:

While watching everything unfold this morning on the NQ, I said to myself "I bet fortydraws got long after that test and quick rejection of 3072" I also figured your exit would be about where it ended up being.

I took the same trade in SIM this morning, but exited at the first congestion at 3080. Had this as an area to watch pre-market, and got shook out when it stalled there. In the back of my mind I knew I should hang on for further clarification, especially as it took off again about a minute after I punched out.

Great trading .... I'm glad to see that I spotted the same thing as you did, just disappointed I couldn't hold on for the bigger target.
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YMOCA,

There's nothing wrong with exiting where you did around 80. In fact for those who are new to pure price movement at times it is better to be free from the fear of price going against them. Once you start getting more confident about your abilities the giving back of some of the gain for even larger gain won't be as fear inducing. Please keep training and also remember that you can always 'choose' to re-enter. There is no right answer as to whether it's better to exit and re-enter or continue to hold. The real answer lies in what you feel comfortable doing and that's where your plan and testing comes into play.

I wish you all the best.

Gringo
 
Hello, i have been reading the last 20 post i just missed while in posting sabatical, is great to see gringo is back, and kuddos for 40's posts and results.

I have been mainly backtesting lots of stuff just to find out stuff I already knew but could not trust in real time, the mind is a tricky monster, at least mine is.

I guess i am stuck in pattern trading, still cant feel the market, i can see the behaviour, and actually give fancy and sophisticated interpretation in Rt, the trouble is that i cant trade it because i have not devised a way to backtest it, so i can only trade the PATTERNS i can backtest and trust, guess more screen time will eventually do the trick.
 
Quote from Gringo:

Niko was also trading crude oil at one time. I am not sure whether he's into it or not anymore but wouldn't harm to get some input from him. I think his reason was that on days NQ wasn't moving crude might provide opportunities but as time went on I believe he started getting distracted as to which instrument to use. Now this last part may be a figment of my imagination.

Gringo
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G, thanks for remembering, I am still in oil, there is something about NQ i have not been able to decipher (dumbass me). My main reason to trade oil, is because it was the only thing ai have studied with enough work to give me confidence in taking a trade, I am a fearful fella, :(.

Now, as db pointed out once oil trends are scarce, and oil ussually has >50% rets, so the things i have done to try to get money out of it differ a little from what is ussualy posted here, if anyone wants to hear an opinioi will be happy to provide what my little experience has to offer.
 
I wanted to post this chart showing the "mental stops" and my exit today in relation to the demand line that was not shown in my earlier post. I had a few PM's asking about stop management. I think this might help some who are new to the thread and perhaps have not studied DbPhoenix's three charts in his original post.

Anyone just stumbling in now would be well-served by going back and reading at least the first post, if not the first 80 or so.

I do not necessarily draw these lines on the chart, but they are in my head. I use them more to keep me in than to get me out, but obviously if holding keeps me in, then breaaking usually suggest that I get out.
 

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