If You Can Draw A Straight Line . . .

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Quote from fortydraws:

Most of these have come to me by PM. I guess it was only a matter of time before one showed up here in the thread itself. I was going to ignore it, but I will instead respond this once.

I've posted losses when I have had them, and I will post them when I have more of them. I approach this activity the same way every day. If you were to look back at the charts I have posted, and if you were to read them from left to right , rather than right to left, I think you would find that my entries over the last two weeks, and the last two/three months, for that matter, have been based on a consistent application of what has been discussed in this thread and in other Wyckoff/Trading by Price threads here and elsewhere, and that these entries were based on clear indications, or at least what one might reasonably have thought to be clear indications given by price, before the fact.

Such negative responses as above imply, I suppose, that I am attempting to fool people. Toward what end? No one here knows me. You don't know me. The only person here who does know my real name is DbPhoenix, and that is because I bought his book.

What motive would I have to only post profitable trades and not losing trades? I am here to learn. The feedback I have received from both DbPhoenix and nodoji from my losses has been far more beneficial to my trading than the feedback (or no feedback) that I get as a result of having good days. In fact, as a direct result of their feedback to two back to back losing trades I posted here I was able to make some changes that led to my having my best trading day to date.

I have been very straight about what my situation is and how I got here. I have been a blue collar tradesman my whole adult life whose body, specifically the vertabrea that form the lower third of my spine, is giving out. I have a wife and a family to support, and little time left where I'll be able to physically continue my trade without risking a grave result: I either quit soon, and be able to maintain and enjoy an otherwise active life, or I push myself on to the point were any mobility that will remain in my body will be accompanied by constant agony. One might say that my choice is being a day trader who can still play golf, or become a 50 year old who needs a walker and morphine to get around and disability and charity to get by.

So what I have to gain from my participation here is the help and instruction offered by DbPhoenix, nodoji, gringo, niko, and anyone else who might want to offer a good word. I am very thankful for having found DbPhoenix when I did. I am very grateful to him and the others for the support and advice they have shown me here and elsewhere.

And I am doing well. I'll not apologize for it. I have done so by studying materials that are for the most part FREE, and what few I bought were very inexpensive. I use FREE data from my broker, and a FREE charting platform. While I never opened a journal on a message board of my own, I have twice now interjected myself into discussions started by DbPhoenix. I have kept a trading journal/log of my own since last September. I have recorded every trade, saved a copy of every chart, and wrote at least a sentence or two assessing myself at the end of everyday.

I now start my day by looking at the context of price action over the preceding 24 to 48 hours, and based on what price has done, what it is doing, and where it is doing it, I try to have a long and a short scenario in mind before the open. That has been working well for me. Often one or the other scenario comes to pass. From there, it is a matter of watching how and where trade unfolds. I use nothing other than information that is free to anyone who wishes to access it - a simple price chart.

I posted a blotter before, and I did so exactly to head off just this kind of negativity. I see no reason to post my blotter as I have offered a detailed explantion of what I did and why, including an annotated chart. Yes, it was "after the fact." That goes without saying. We are here to "talk shop," so to speak, aren't we? Am I to try to focus on what the market is doing, enter, manage, and exit my trades, and post a running blow by blow here on a message board on top of that? Even if I wanted to, I couldn't do it. It takes all of my focus and all of my energy to trade. If you were to notice, I generally do not post here at all in the mornings, and if I do, I do not post once the market opens until I am finished trading for the day. And even then, I may not be able to post until night time, as I have to go to work.

But here is today's pnl - I trade the NQ, and I do not trade what I or anyone else would consider "size," but even the small lot trader can do well when catching a chunk of a 25 point range with a few additional buys or sells during the trend. And this is my second $1400+ day in a row, and my 11th profitable day in a row, and think what you will, the dollars are real, this approach to trading is real, and so am I.

forty, how many cars are you trading at a time? just curious. thanks.
 
Quote from Crude Man:

forty, how many cars are you trading at a time? just curious. thanks.

Usually 1 or 2, but sometimes as many as 5 contracts at an inital entry, and then 1 or 2 if I add-on to a trade in progress. I think ultimatley I'd like to get up to 10-15.
 
Here is a two part chart. On the left, I have superimposed a tick chart on top of the one minute chart. The tick chart shows the same sequence of trade as shown on the one minute bars to the right.

Note that price traded up to that 77.50 level that has now had reason to be mentioned four days in a row here. It is a level at which one might anticipate some R. I wanted to post something like this to try to show what DbPhoneix means when he refers to the continuous nature of price movement or trade.

You see, a trader who trades by price could watch the one minute chart, as I do, but what he is "seeing" in a way, is the activity that you see on the tick chart. If you cannot see a reason to get short near that 77.50 line by looking at that tic chart then you are not reading price. You might think you are, but you are probably reading bars, I suppose.

Had this been during NY hours, I would have entered short somewhere between 77.50 and down to perhaps 76.50. 76.75 would have been likely.

Think about this activity this way: On the second trade at 77.75, someone bought, and someone sold. The next seller was unable to get a higher price, or even the same price. Demand was not there. Buyers were not willing to keep paying up,. In fact, not only were buyers not willing to pay up, subsequent sellers had to settle for less and less. How many times have you sat there at your screen trying to get that last tick, urging price upward, and finally you threw in the towel and took the lower price? It happens all day long. That is what is happening all over any chart, "inside the bars." The bars don't signal a trade is available, people do.

This is where S/R come in - this activity is taking place all day long all across the range of transactions. But the odds of getting the direction right is only going to tilt in your favor if you wait for those brief moments when price approaches a level that lots of eyeballs are also looking at and ready to do something at.

Now, pull up your own 5 minute chart. Someone who trades 5 minute bars may also have looked at this as a short opportunity. But from what I have read here and at other trading message boards, these traders would be waiting for the break of the low of the 8:06-8:10 five minute bar to enter, or 76. So, you can at least see the advantage of someone trading by price. When the bar trader is getting out on an immediate reaction, my limit order is getting filled if it wan't filled when the stop was triggered. When the five minute bar trader's breakeven stop is getting filled, I am never in the red for even a tick, as my entry is at least a half point or more higher than the bar trader's.

That is all I have time for this morning.
 

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Anyone who wants to avoid spending the time and taking the trouble to read the Wyckoff Forum at TL could just copy the above post and study it.

No, trading is not easy. But it is simple.
 
Two aspects of this morning's chart that are worth noting: (1) we are in the process of forming a hinge that began Monday morning and (2) a resistance line can be drawn beginning with yesterday's high. Since all of this is taking place at resistance (3100), this behavior assumes added significance.

Also note that the hinge may be invalidated if price drops below 68.
 
Quote from fortydraws:

Just one quick rule breaking post while trading: Has anyone else here seen the movie Groundhog Day?

You just can't make this stuff up ... How can I post a loser when I am allowed to use the same play book over and over? Eventually the market will throw me a curve ball and I will swing and miss, but not this morning.

I am really out of here now until tonight. I hope everyone, everyone has a profitable day here.
 

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Quote from bmwhendrix:

Forty,

When the Jackals start coming around, best to just ignore them or thank them for their interest and input and let them go. Don't be baited into justifications. Most are losers with big egos that can not stand to see someone else succeed. Especially when they have been on ET for many years.

Fewer than ten per cent of those who view 40's charts are snarks. That means that over ninety per cent are at least open-minded enough to look. I'd say that's pretty good.
 
Quote from dbphoenix:

Two aspects of this morning's chart that are worth noting: (1) we are in the process of forming a hinge that began Monday morning and (2) a resistance line can be drawn beginning with yesterday's high. Since all of this is taking place at resistance (3100), this behavior assumes added significance.

Also note that the hinge may be invalidated if price drops below 68.

Price got within a couple of points of the top of the hinge. I'll call that good enough for now.
 
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