If you are a day trader with a persistent edge, are you a millionaire yet?

[Blitzjoker]

Semi-serious question. Assuming you are a day trader risking say 2% of capital on a trade, with perhaps an expected win on average of half that on each trade (quite conservative by some standards I have read about here), if you started today with a modest £1000 and could place just one trade a day on average and reinvest your gains you should have your million in about 700 days, or a bit under three years.

If this hasn’t happened yet (and, spoiler here, it hasn’t happened for me either) why do you think that is? Is it because

(i) you don’t follow your plan,

(ii) you are really unlucky,

(iii) you don’t scale up when you win, or (oh no)

(iv) you don’t actually have an edge?

 

[deaddog]

You forgot (v) I spend what I make.

 

[Nobert]

(v) the perception about the game and reality doesn't match.


Stay open minded,
imagine, that everything except for major levels - is random.

What then.

Wouldn't that be a perfect machine to suck in the fools.

 

[Turveyd]

As soon as you've proven your edge, they pay you 10Mil just to keep it quite.

There is none of that trading for years and years and taking money out for food and fun and bills and growing your account then having bad days and blowing 50% of it in 20mins, no, straight to millionairesville.

 

[interdim]

It was once said, It only takes about 5 years to figure out how to make your first million, but it will take you 20 years to figure out how to keep it.

 

[SteveM]

OP, don't forget about liquidity constraints...

A trader may have a little niche that mints money, but only works on the 10 minute chart in lean hogs or coffee, or some mid-cap stock options, etc.

Size can quickly become a problem in many markets.

 

[realtrades]

You can't be a serious day trader with an edge if you're not selling something, chat room, shirts, mugs, dvds, do people still watch stuff on dvds?

 

[MarkBrown]

myself with a edge derived from perry kaufmans book smarter trading in early 2000, with the help of a order entry expert using member clearing rates at the cme. made 5mm in two days of trading a few hours each day off es. we were trading up to 1500 contracts, i retired and spent about the next 10 years spending my half. m

ps i actually think without doubt the markets are better now than ever, i say thank god for hft - opportunities abound, rates are lower, liquidity is better, human nature has not changed. i am definitely excited to get back up to speed. i was stupid i gave away many edges and saw them all destroyed, if you get one keep it to yourself and just use it.

 

[Handle123]

myself with a edge derived from perry kaufmans book smarter trading in early 2000, with the help of a order entry expert using member clearing rates at the cme. made 5mm in two days of trading a few hours each day off es. we were trading up to 1500 contracts, i retired and spent about the next 10 years spending my half. m

ps i actually think without doubt the markets are better now than ever, i say thank god for hft - opportunities abound, rates are lower, liquidity is better, human nature has not changed. i am definitely excited to get back up to speed. i was stupid i gave away many edges and saw them all destroyed, if you get one keep it to yourself and just use it.

I wouldn't say rates lower trading ES as retail, when I stopped trading big S&Ps at $500 a point was paying $12 rt, more bang for the buck.

Human nature definitely not changed much, more than half my signals based on retail entries/exits.

And you right, you find a holy grail, keep it to yourself.

 

[tomorton]

The consistency issue is a great riddle of trading.

In order to double your account in a year all you need to do is make 6% profit per month. In theory this is possible with a fairly poor technical strategy and an unambitious r:r. It would take strict money management.

But the question is not why new traders think they can make a fortune trading, but why more don't.