If you are a day trader with a persistent edge, are you a millionaire yet?

[EsKiller]

The consistency issue is a great riddle of trading.

In order to double your account in a year all you need to do is make 6% profit per month. In theory this is possible with a fairly poor technical strategy and an unambitious r:r. It would take strict money management.

But the question is not why new traders think they can make a fortune trading, but why more don't.

Judging from everything you've posted, the correct answer is "patience". The need for action, rather than the desire to wait for opportunity to present itself.

Play a game like poker, see how well you do if your need for action is stronger than your desire to wait for opportunity.

 

[TimMykes]

myself with a edge derived from perry kaufmans book smarter trading in early 2000, with the help of a order entry expert using member clearing rates at the cme. made 5mm in two days of trading a few hours each day off es. we were trading up to 1500 contracts, i retired and spent about the next 10 years spending my half. m

ps i actually think without doubt the markets are better now than ever, i say thank god for hft - opportunities abound, rates are lower, liquidity is better, human nature has not changed. i am definitely excited to get back up to speed. i was stupid i gave away many edges and saw them all destroyed, if you get one keep it to yourself and just use it.

lol

a systems seller claiming he retired rich off trading

http://www.marketswiki.com/wiki/Mark_Brown

 

[Amatrue]

Human nature definitely not changed much, more than half my signals based on retail entries/exits.

Is it possible for you to give a brief idea, without giving away too much, of how you determine retail entries/exits? thanks

 

[wmwmw]

Your math doesn't add up.

Semi-serious question. Assuming you are a day trader risking say 2% of capital on a trade, with perhaps an expected win on average of half that on each trade (quite conservative by some standards I have read about here), if you started today with a modest £1000 and could place just one trade a day on average and reinvest your gains you should have your million in about 700 days, or a bit under three years.

If this hasn’t happened yet (and, spoiler here, it hasn’t happened for me either) why do you think that is? Is it because

(i) you don’t follow your plan,

(ii) you are really unlucky,

(iii) you don’t scale up when you win, or (oh no)

(iv) you don’t actually have an edge?

 

[MarkBrown]

The consistency issue is a great riddle of trading.

But the question is not why new traders think they can make a fortune trading, but why more don't.

consistency - for me that is strictly "fading" while leveraging up-down on each trade. totally opposite of what anyone will tell you.

why more don't - simple they run out of money before they can learn. school cost and they burnt their tuition money. you need a benefactor early on "i was lucky - had several" probably because my enthusiasm and passion was off the hook and i could program in the 80's which was in demand. big guys were trying to figure out how to automate and it was wild west.

 

[MarkBrown]

lol

a systems seller claiming he retired rich off trading

http://www.marketswiki.com/wiki/Mark_Brown

before i block your dumb ass i want to set you strait. i have an independently audited track record as the trader and 1/2 owner of a CTA. the firm was named by MAR as the top emerging CTA in the country, in the classification of under 10mm under management it's first 2 years. prior to that i was the quant for one of the worlds largest traders and most of the biggest trading firms. since you like to look up shit, check my linkedin profile dweeb.

 

[Blitzjoker]

Your math doesn't add up.

One percent profit per trade so:

1.01 raised to 700th power=1059.16 * 1000 (original stake) = 1,059,160

 

[tomorton]

Semi-serious question. Assuming you are a day trader risking say 2% of capital on a trade, with perhaps an expected win on average of half that on each trade (quite conservative by some standards I have read about here), if you started today with a modest £1000 and could place just one trade a day on average and reinvest your gains you should have your million in about 700 days, or a bit under three years.

If this hasn’t happened yet (and, spoiler here, it hasn’t happened for me either) why do you think that is? Is it because

(i) you don’t follow your plan,

(ii) you are really unlucky,

(iii) you don’t scale up when you win, or (oh no)

(iv) you don’t actually have an edge?

You're assuming a 100% win rate?

 

[Blitzjoker]

You're assuming a 100% win rate?

No an average of a 1 percent gain with a 2 percent maximum risk of capital.

 

[QTrader20]

lol

a systems seller claiming he retired rich off trading

http://www.marketswiki.com/wiki/Mark_Brown

Just curious to know where did he claim that he got rich by trading? I'm aware he made a claim many years ago that he sold an algo for 5M....

I'm a fan of quant stuff and I got to say the guy is quite knowledgeable in this field with decades of experience. He knew how to back test trading ideas more than a decade ago while most ETers still don't know what it is presently.