If I had to pick one stock for the next 24 months

vanzandt said:
I said "it's not a guess"... here's why, and then I'm done.
We'll let time decide.

TOP #1 reason:
They are masters of the supply chain. that in and upon itself is enough.
Their deep pocketed buying power and unassailable moat sets the rules and calls the shots.
Everyone else sucks up or dies.

Top #2 reason:
They are masters at preventing shrinkage.
That's a big thing these days it would seem.
Put it this way... The Bellagio in Vegas is an equal apples to apples comparison when it comes to crook-spotting tech.

Top #3 reason:
This goes back to #1 in a way....
But if Wally World doesn't have it... you'll never find it at DG or DLTR.

Maybe a Walgreens or CVS can match this for their selected SKU's...but you'll pay way more.
So why does it get its own ranking?
Because the stores have focused on perfect, completely clean, wide open aisles and stocked shelves.
Find that at a DG or DLTR and I'll kiss your ass.
They look like a hurricane just went thru.
Junk everywhere. Unpacked inventory clogging aisles, no one knows wear anything is, they're a wreck. Because why?..... beats me... apparently they can't get employees? Why? Whatever... we are evaluating companies here. That's their problem but it needs to be fixed.

If anyone follows what I write here in other threads, you'll know I have addressed this and called out both of those stocks as being overpriced. The market has proven me correct. In a big way.

Top #4 reason:
These guys aren't lying around letting the future pass them by. Just like they always have, they remain on the cutting edge of forward thought and precision, smart deployment of capex on tech. They will lead the way, perhaps only rivaled by Amazon, in the deployment of robotics and AI to achieve greater efficiencies and at the same time... greater top=line revenues. Who listened to or read over their little 2 day conference they just had this week? Google it. You'll see.

Top #5 reason
They own the land underneath their stores.
And in their BEST locations... they own the whole friggin block with dozens and dozens of rock solid tenants.
There's a huge difference between being a bank that has lots of CRE on the loan side of its balance sheet (current mantra to worry about via the financial press)... and being a corporation that actually owns that land.
PRIME commercial land.
Let inflation rage... that land is a hedge.
New tenants will come along if some go under.

Top #6 reason
Multi-channel b2c with a team of the best and brightest that wake up every day with one goal... how do we beat AMZN. striving everyday to match AMZN.

Top #7 reason
Price. Consumers are pinched and while Krogers etc are just as good... I go back to reason #1.

Top reason #8
Sam's Club.
Costco is good, maybe a little better, but WMT is not far behind. And again, their buying power clout across the lions share of products... dwarfs Costco

Top reason #9
And maybe the top reason aside from #1, but it encompasses all the others...
That CEO... he is sharp af.
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Awesome rundown Van!

What do you say about a steady move away from brick and mortar sales to the online?

FYI I invested in Amazon 2 or 3 weeks ago as my second share holding ever,after Tesla.
 
semperfrosty said:
Awesome rundown Van!

What do you say about a steady move away from brick and mortar sales to the online?

FYI I invested in Amazon 2 or 3 weeks ago as my second share holding ever,after Tesla.
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Right now WMT is kind of out of favor, the money is chasing the sexier players. I'm actually surprised it's not more off of the $150 level.

The reason I wrote 24 months is because I do fear some kind of black swan event. Sure they all go down in price if it happens, but the strong survive. Like I said WMT rules the supply chain. They learned a lot in the pandemic. Other companies did too, but they don't have WMT's clout nor their deep pockets. WMT is ready for the next disaster.

As for online sales, absolutely. It's funny you bring that up because I was talking to someone earlier this very day lol and she said, and I quote... "WMT curbside pick-up is the greatest thing ever. I will never shop any other way." The discussion was centered around something else, but that was a tangential remark in the conversation. Of course I took note. :D
 
I didn't see this thread before today. Starting today from today, even though it is up 75% or more from its April 2023 lows, I'd go with CELH, Celsius Holdings. Even if the market were to top and head to new lows, I think CELH will hold up relative to the market, and when the market recovers this one is going to run higher faster.
 
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