Agree 100%!
If I had $1,000,000 ...
- Thread starter zbestoch
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Agree 100%!
This is true but the problem is making the same stupid mistakes. Today I had 4 trades. 1 was a losing trade since I tried to pick a top at a resistance level in an upward trending market. Market was at the time upward trending because price was going up very simple. I also thought I would have time even if I was wrong to get out before my stop was hit, but the market decided to spike up in a fast manner and stop me out. This is not to say having a stop was bad since market did not reverse. What was bad was not using PA to confirm if resistance was going to hold or not. The trade after this on a different future worked in that resistance held. However in this case price had gone down and then came back up to the resistance level and then started to go down again. The difference in the case of the losing trade, price had been going up for awhile, it never showed that it wanted to go down previously except early in the morning.
I also decide to set a goal for myself today. I could have just taken 1 trade and quit since 1st trade was a winning trade, but then I would have just made a little money. So I decided to risk my profit to reach a higher profit goal for the day. I accepted that I could lose my profit and turn a winning day into a losing day. So I think setting profit and loss goals can be useful. I know by switching back to sim on a losing day if I did not stop at a certain stop loss amount for the day I would continue to lose money. The goal for today was if I was doing good to see if I can increase the amount I can make on a winning day by increasing the number of trades for the day.
So if one has a winning system, should one not work to eventually either trade more contracts or more trades during the day. I would assume though I could be wrong, that increasing the number of trades would be better to reduce variance. This is why cash money poker players are willing to run the cards 3 times on all in bets even when they have a higher statistical % chance to win hand vs the other player.
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Wiz, you not thinking right. EACH TRADE IS YOUR FIRST TRADE, it is managing the risk of the this trade which is messing with your brain, your brain LOVES losing trades cause before you basically lost? So brain is happy looking and being in losing trades, and the brain will mess you up good being in a profitable trade as it will change your sensories, you start "feeling" off, cold sweats, neck on fire, self doubting yourself, brain don't like winning trades cause it is in unknown area since you don't travel there enough. One way to get away from brain looking for losing trades is pain, man not very good at changing unless pain is worse in what you doing, so if you have a tens unit, it devise to give electrical impulse to muscles for rehab and pain, attach that to your arm and put on "5" or higher and give yourself a one second jolt, not going to come close to killing ya, but brain will feel it done bad. Don't do if you have pace maker, might be your last trade, LOL Or you can take five miles walk each time you do mistake trades, some days you could be doing 10 miles, does cut down on over trading.
You are risking your profit each day, each trade, after each trade done, money goes into your account. You are risking from your account each trade, I can't stand the accumulated in platforms, the one I made doesn't have that so after each trade account goes up or down. I just don't understand why so many think after couple winning trades they should increase size, very dumb idea as time goes by, less likelihood of getting better trades. Put same amount each trade and at some point reduce size, I don't want to lose my basic "nut".
I trade an hour doing day session, sometimes little pre-market on report trades, I have posted enough charts in Journal section to see I am doing simply stuff. I have to make 6 ES points in 30 minutes or I cut back size 95%, but if I make 6 points based on one contract on original signal and not averaging down that I do, size is cut back 80%. I put all my efforts in 60 minutes or less. I no longer have desire to trade all day cause most money that is easier is first 60 minutes, why work for less per hour. You start with one lot, if you make $4000 in a month, you add one lot next month, Goal should be 4-6 points, you work that out to 25, you making decent money each year.
People lose for host of reasons, but usually they have never come close to work and effort I have put in to make decent Trading Plan, they put more effort into planning a vacation.
I enjoyed it then, and I enjoyed it last week. Like you, I too am not a fan of Douglas's psychological theories. However, I did and still do find his identification of the need to think in probabilities and what the implications of such a mind set are for a trader to be extremely important to me. And the truth is that the best method in the world won't save you if you don't have the ability to follow it, wouldn't you agree?
But there seem to be a fair number of journals here at ET where the individual seems to have a solid system, and yet lacks the ability to stick to it. Of course, it might be the case that what they imply is a completed system is, as you suggest, not complete at all. Trading an incomplete system but thinking you have all the bolts in place and the nuts tightened is a recipe for disaster.
I sure appreciate your posts handle. You're a real breath of fresh air to be sure. You're always welcome to post here!
For today my system had one set up signal, a long trade, which was scratched for a one tick profit. The system is a with-trend pullback system. The first trade was entered as the 6E trended up pre-NY open. Price advanced about 8 or 9 ticks from entry, pulled back to test entry, and then fell back through the entry level. That was the signal to move target to +1 tick which was filled. Price then fell further into the overnight range. No further set-ups materialized during the trading hours for this system.
I have early appointments on Wednesday and Thursday so I will be available for less than half of my usual trading session. I will only update if I have signals to trade.
Now everyone be nice to one another and try to keep it interesting!
Let's start with someone who is already a millionaire and his networth is $1,000,000 he is retired and is fed up with the Fed's ZIRP, he is not one of the elite traders and enjoys a rather pathetic 26% win rate! He risks no more than 1% of his networth on any one trade, yet his winning trades are being locked at +3% of his networth. So let's see:
$1,000,000 networth
300 trades a year
220 losses @ 1% risk -$2,200,000
80 wins @ 3% reward +$2,400,000
Yearly gross gain +20%
26% win rate
So a 20% return all of the sudden looks amazing considering that he would get F... All If left in a bank or invests (cough cough) in government bonds. He has beaten the inflation and made a good profit too. Not too shabby if you ask me
no, I won't
the inability to follow the method comes first and foremost from not believing that you have the best method in the world
all those psychological shenanigans assume that wannabe trader has a working method
wrong assumption
he does not have it
and he knows it
what he has is a hodge podge of setups, and the hodge podge of rules which in its totality are insufficient for successful trading
trader feels it, he knows it ... but that is all that he has
and psychology that Douglass is talking about suppose to help the wannabe trader not to lose his mind while keep trying, and trying and trying to improve his shitty method, not to run from the method , because that what he has, he has nothing else ....
but by the time the method is ready , trader (he is not a wannabe anymore) is ready as well..
now trader does not need psychology, he knows what he has (the best method in the world) , and he holds onto it
the inability to follow the method comes first and foremost from not believing that you have the best method in the world
I think we are far closer to agreeing on all points than your post implies, and I lack the ability to explain how this is so. But all good points, and well-taken. Thank you.
Had one trade on Friday that netted $20 or $30 (failed to take a picture - I'll get the exact figure posted at the next update). No trades Monday, and one for Tuesday.
One trade, stopped at +1 tick today.
I am going to add ES and CL to my trade candidates for this little project of mine. Trading hours, risk parameters remain nearly the same, with the exception that for CL I will probably use a $200 stop loss, 6E remains $125 stop loss, and ES $125-$150 as required. Any situations requiring a larger stop than those stated will be passed over.
I am going to add ES and CL to my trade candidates for this little project of mine. Trading hours, risk parameters remain nearly the same, with the exception that for CL I will probably use a $200 stop loss, 6E remains $125 stop loss, and ES $125-$150 as required. Any situations requiring a larger stop than those stated will be passed over.
Changing the chart up a bit in recognition of the impending All Hallows' Evening. Also, this post and trade are in honor of the memory of Big Hog. I never met him, and sadly he was gone before I ever became aware of him. Thankfully his posts, very sensible posts livened with some real market and trading and life wisdom, live on here at ET.
I have written of those who know the answer, and of those who know the answer but don't know it is the answer because they do not even comprehend the question. Big Hog, if my interpretation of his writings here is correct, knew the answer, he knew that he knew it, and he tried, as best anyone can, to point others in the direction of that answer. I wish ET would reactivate his profile page to make it easier for others to find his post history. We have an ET Hall of Fame for threads, why not a Hall of Fame for Posters? If this were ever to come to be, I'd gladly nominate Big Hog, and I doubt it would take long before we found someone to second the motion. The criteria should be the related to the actual value brought to the table, and not post count or notoriety.
As to this journal, I have been remiss here in keeping up with the progress of this little project of mine. I have not traded it as actively as I had planned. Starting the second week of November, I hope to hit this project firmer than I have.
I have written of those who know the answer, and of those who know the answer but don't know it is the answer because they do not even comprehend the question. Big Hog, if my interpretation of his writings here is correct, knew the answer, he knew that he knew it, and he tried, as best anyone can, to point others in the direction of that answer. I wish ET would reactivate his profile page to make it easier for others to find his post history. We have an ET Hall of Fame for threads, why not a Hall of Fame for Posters? If this were ever to come to be, I'd gladly nominate Big Hog, and I doubt it would take long before we found someone to second the motion. The criteria should be the related to the actual value brought to the table, and not post count or notoriety.
As to this journal, I have been remiss here in keeping up with the progress of this little project of mine. I have not traded it as actively as I had planned. Starting the second week of November, I hope to hit this project firmer than I have.