If Canadian politics is leading indicator for the US, the republicans are in trouble
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seems like its more of a lagging indicator, Harper first got elected shortly after Bush, and won his Majority right before obama got elected, now Canada has gone full pinko, shortly after americans started getting sick of Obama. Now Canadians have to learn a lesson, I have no doubt Trudeau will kill off any jobs that remained in the oil fields in western canada, futures looking bleak.
I am not sure what futures you are looking at, but all my oil futures are slightly up, and SIFs are slightly lower.
I don't know enough to comment on the oil related stuff as it relates to Canadian jobs, but USDCAD is basically only slightly perturbed over the news. So it seems to me this is "mostly in the expected" and basically in the market already. With the dollar gaining against several currencies, it is hard to gauge dollar strength or canadian weakness.
Hard to believe dollar strength if you believe the Fed Funds Futures of the no rate raise until March of '16 theory,but this move is well within variance for the contract.
I don't know enough to comment on the oil related stuff as it relates to Canadian jobs, but USDCAD is basically only slightly perturbed over the news. So it seems to me this is "mostly in the expected" and basically in the market already. With the dollar gaining against several currencies, it is hard to gauge dollar strength or canadian weakness.
Hard to believe dollar strength if you believe the Fed Funds Futures of the no rate raise until March of '16 theory,but this move is well within variance for the contract.
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Canadian everything is ten years behind America. Everyone knows this
Yes, a couple years ago when it appeared that Mr. Harper would be in power for a while the Canadian dollar was on par with the U.S. dollar. As the the probability rose that Liberals would be in office the Canadian dollar dropped to 70% of the U.S dollar. Soon each Canadian dollar will be worth a few U.S. cents.
USD/CAD has little, if anything to do with Harper or who is in control in Canada and a whole lot to do with monetary policy at the Fed (with a bit of influence on the BoC).
Personally, I cannot wait to see Canada go full blown liberal. Let's see all the success that comes. Maybe it'll become a utopia, and some moonbats here will be tempted to move up north.
Why would the probability be rising? Because Harper sucked. Which provides an Occam's Razor alternative to your theory.
I know that the exchange rate has little to do with who is in charge of Canadian government. But don't tell Ricter this... I was just trolling him.
