if backtesting works, what could go wrong in real trade?

[PranKsterJack]

Quote from bighog:

backtesting is looking for a Dusty Springfield system.

How many times have we sat there and were flat going into a report and BANG, the ES is up or down 10 handles in a blink?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GBwSN0Yw5l0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycbgHM1mI0k&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0l-GpISGBFY&feature=related

Songs are like trading.........they are about what is in your head

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LjMcWXHOWoQ&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JkhX5W7JoWI an old favorite

you need a plan that leaves you in the trade at that time - at least 1 time in 3

 

[PranKsterJack]

Quote from Brianharvey:

NinjaTrader's simulation engine apparently factors in bid/ask size, last trade, time and order delay to determine fill probability.

If you were consistent on the demo in ninjatrader then Is it only the emotional aspect that changes from demo to live? If so, why do people say demo trading means nothing? If not, what other factors come into play (bearing in mind the first paragraph)

cheers.

NewbieBrian

Ninjas strategy analyzer does not use the same logic for fills as the real time sim
you will get different results every time
the SA also does not support bid/ask on historical data (in 6.5)
Its gettin better but it aint there yet

 

[PranKsterJack]

Quote from Gcapman:

Cool-calm-collected demeanor gets tossed out the window when this month's/year's mortgage/car payment is at risk...

so...... the remedy is
hmmmmmm
don't risk the rent/food money?
nah, too simplistic

 

[PranKsterJack]

Quote from lionfish42:

BTW:

You can have two methods of winning.


You could be right only 40% of the time , but have a 3:1 payout.

Or

You could be right 60%, but only have a 1:1 payout.



You need to know what your strategy expectation is, prior to figuring out probability.


As they say in poker it is all about the pot odds.

the former has always seemed easier to execute on than the latter
just my 2 cents

 

[PranKsterJack]

Quote from jack hershey:

The last part of the day had three more of these patterns. The first one was the pm BO after settlement (it is attached) The last one is going on as I type.

Taking a back test discovery which is at this level probably takes some doing.

I posted this as a caution for anyone who might think about trying to find patterns using an analyzer of some sort.

An alternative mode of discovery could be critical thinking.

The practical matter of trading through a day doesn't bring up very many possibilites for consideration. adults are apable of thinking things through as well

If you use this pattern and it fits in to your trading, the first thing to edo is figure out how to "trade it".

Obviously, it is not a stand alone tradable from the open of the first bar. Does it ever gain in value for a trader's use?

bloviating again jack?

 

[1a2b3cppp]

Quote from klipsadat:

Method is barely 5% of success.. something morons like Jack never understand

This again?

Method is 100% of success.

Bad method, no success.

Good method, success.

JH's method is not profitable.

Woodie's method is not profitable.

I understand that some people like to throw around "well it's more than just the method, blah blah, you need things like the right psychology and blah blah" but that's all bullshit.

Even with perfect disclipline, state of mind, etc, JH and Woodie's "methods" still wouldn't be profitable. Know why? Cuz they're not profitable methods.

It's like giving someone a fork to eat soup. It's not going to work.

SO MANY PEOPLE on this board act as if your method (strategy/system/etc) is the smallest of your worries when, in fact, is it the MOST important.

Skittish traders with a profitable method will make money.

Super focused traders with nerves of steel, but using an unprofitable method, still will not make money.

Anyone who claims otherwise is not a profitable trader and, most likely, is selling you something (and when you end up not making money, and you won't because their method doesn't work, they will blame the other factors I just mentioned, when in fact, the reason you don't make money is because your method was bad to begin with).

100% of trading guru scammers do this.

 

[1a2b3cppp]

Quote from klipsadat:

Possibly the stupidest comment ever posted on ET.. and there has been some fierce competition

almost as stupid as saying "method is 5% of success."

 

[1a2b3cppp]

Quote from klipsadat:

I don't care if the answer is only one.. that would mean every trader on the planet would be making money because you couldn't sit on that kind of dynamite without it getting out

On the contrary, people are extremely protective of trade secrets.

And believe me profitable methods are legion in number..

Oh wait, are you one of those "[insert indicator] can be profitable if blah blah vague conditions" people???? In my experience I have seen fewer than 5 methods that are profitable. Hardly "legion." And most of them are not even viable options to non-institutional traders because they require things like ultra fast execution time, or immense capital reserves, which retail and at-home traders do not have.

but profitable traders?.. well you work out for yourself why their number isn't quite so large

I have. It's because they don't have profitable systems. They believe that shit like what JH, or Woodie, or any of the other "gurus" preach actually works, and it's just something that they're doing wrong. Or they believe that [insert indicator or combination of indicators] works, there's just some other mental aspect they're missing.

Guess what? There's not.

They are using faulty systems.

 

[1a2b3cppp]

Quote from klipsadat:

But hey I love the argument that profitable methods are so secret but somehow some knob on the net has come across 5 of them personally.. great stuff

Can you read? I said "fewer than 5."

Also, "fewer than 5" is nothing compared to the "legion" of profitable methods you supposedly claim that exist

Know how I know you're not a profitable trader?

 

[1a2b3cppp]

Quote from klipsadat:

Oh wow they sound really scarce and yet you've come across so many of them and still can't make a buck

You're still failing to acknowledge the "legion" of profitable trading methods you know exist. How is it such a big deal that I've encountered a few when apparently there are legion in existance?

You're obviously just a troll and aren't interested in having an intelligent discussion since you keep ignoring the blarringly obvious points in this conversation. For that reason you have nothing to contribute. Welcome to my ignore list.